Girardi: All the Right Moves

SU was in the house last night at Yankee Stadium way up high with some of the SU faithful to take in the Yankees’ wild card game victory.  The stadium was loud – a welcome change from the regular season where most fans have their faces in their i-phones.  Great game, great win.  Some takeaways:

  • Joe Girardi made all the right moves with the bullpen.  Chad Green got the biggest outs of the game in the 1st inning where a 5-run deficit may have felt too large to overcome.  Bringing in David Robertson early turned out to be the key as he threw over 50 pitches in what had to be the longest outing in his career as a reliever.  And best of all, Girardi avoided having to use Betances in a high pressure situation which was a relief to all fans.  The bullpen is not in great shape for Thursday but the goal here was to advance and he played this masterfully.
  • Kudos to Brian Cashman as relievers Green, Robertson and Kahnle were not even on the opening day roster this season.
  • In the post-season, you worry if the young players will find the moment too big for them.  Clearly, Severino was over-amped or just nervous.  SU feels he will learn from this experience and should be back to normal in his next start.  But notice that Judge, Sanchez and Didi all delivered big hits and showed they are ready for prime time.  SU says that is huge.  Don’t forget that a seasoned veteran like A-Rod struggled in most of his Yankee post-seasons.
  • SU liked the fire from the team last night.  Gardner got brushed back on a 2-2 pitch and then put the next one in the 2nd deck down the line.  Dropped the bat, watched it and did a bit of a staredown at the pitcher.  Judge was really pumped after his laser to left for a home run.  This has been a fun team all year.  And it’s because they are young.
  • Even Todd Frazier hit a shot to center that almost cleared the fence.  SU was on the hook there to buy a round of beers for the entire row if he hit a home run.
  • Interesting that Headley did not get the start.  SU says note that Ellbury has cooled off markedly the last week and should be on the bench for game 1 against the Indians with Headley back in as DH.
  • A tip of the hat to long-time SU subscriber A. Grossman who caught a foul ball last night down below with his glove.  Sweet.

On to Cleveland and their hard throwers.  Not a great match up for the Yankees with a tired bullpen but they are playing with house money now in my opinion.  They will only get younger next season and even more fun to watch.  Given the state of the NY Giants and your NEW YORK KNICKS!, enjoy the next few days.

Is the Wild Card Format Fair?

SU is excited for the Yankees’ post-season.  As stated here a number of times, for me it’s about the journey; not just the end result.  This was an enjoyable season for the Yankees – and it comes after several years of borderline uninspiring baseball in the Bronx by boring players.  They have finally figured out how to go young and by making the playoffs, they are a year ahead of schedule.

I was impressed how the team battled through September to try and win the division and Boston really had to match their strong play day in and day out to capture the title.  But the reality is that they fell short – undone by some truly brutal blown saves by the bullpen.  But that’s baseball and after 162 games, it is what it is.  For SU, the season is a success.  Now, some will criticize SU as being accepting of less than a World Series title but I would say this: is it fair to expect a team to win it all with Todd Frazier at 3rd base and Jaime Garcia in your rotation?  The goal this year was to get young and prepare for the future.  They have such a strong offensive line up now going forward.  Gleybar Torres will be here next season and Todd Frazier can resume striking out and hitting .200 for someone else.

Now, is it fair for the Wild Card “round” to be just one game?  I actually do not have a problem with it.  There has to be a reward for winning the division and there needs to be a penalty for coming in 2nd.  MLB could make this first round 2 out of 3 but the clock is ticking and the season will already extend into early November most likely.  And that is why I refuse to say the season would be a disappointment if the Yankees lose this game.  Anything can happen in one game.  In the perfect world, they win tomorrow and then you are playing with house money.  But remember, this is a young team and the guys playing key roles tomorrow (Judge, Sanchez, Severino, Didi, Hicks) have not been there before for the most part.  Sometimes you need to lose to win the following year.

In terms of tomorrow’s line up, Girardi has some decisions to make.  SU would put Headley at 3rd base, DH Ellsbury and put Hicks in centerfield.  However, as we all know, Todd Frazier must play every inning in every game so either Ellsbury or Hicks will likely be the odd man out.  SU believes they will win this game and then it’s on to Cleveland which is a tough match-up with their hard throwers.  But remember this: it will always come down to Todd Frazier in a big situation.

So, what do you think?  Is the 1-game wild card fair?

Putting Aaron Judge’s Season in Perspective

In case you missed it, Aaron Judge went for 50 home runs today by hitting two more dingers.  While this is obviously impressive by itself, SU says it’s all the more amazing as he struggled for most of July and August.  Maybe the baseball gods won’t ever allow a player to keep up that kind of first half pace for a full season.  Otherwise, that would mean an 80-home run season.  Only Barry Bonds approached that number with a little help from his friends of course.

Yankee fans have to be so excited looking to the future with Judge, Sanchez, Didi, Bird (at least for SU), Aaron Hicks and Gleybar Torres waiting in the wings next season.  As stated here before, this season is a success no matter what happens in the post-season.  The foundation is now set for years to come in the Bronx.

As Girardi considers his post-season line-up, SU asks yet one more time: what is the fascination with Todd Frazier?  Their best line up has to be Headley at 3rd, Bird at 1st and Holliday at DH.  It has to be that.  SU says watch in the playoffs how Todd Frazier comes up in big spots over and over again.  It is bound to happen.

SU deliberately does not wade into the political corner on this blog as you don’t come here to read about that.  But what happened yesterday in the NFL was so incredible; I can’t remember anything like that in American sports other than Tommie Smith and John Carlos raising their fists on the medal stand in the 1968 Olympics.  SU would prefer to see the players all stand during the playing of the national anthem but it’s a free country and we have free speech.  They can do what they want.  But last time I checked, we had much bigger problems than this to worry about.  SU commends the NFL from the Commissioner to the owners to the players on how this was handled.  Hopefully, we can now just get back to playing games and focus on more pressing matters.

Feel free to weigh in (and not just on Todd Frazier!).

Celebrate Good Times!

Knick fans, your day has come.  As reported by ESPN a few minutes ago:

“The New York Knicks have agreed to trade 10-time All-Star forward Carmelo Anthony to the Oklahoma City Thunder, league sources told ESPN on Saturday.

The Thunder will send center Enes Kanter, forward Doug McDermott and a 2018 second-round pick (via the Chicago Bulls) to New York, league sources said.

Anthony, 33, will waive his no-trade clause and his $8.1 million trade kicker to accommodate the deal, league sources told ESPN.”

The good news is that they actually got something in return.  The better news is that they actually made the trade.  Time to move forward.  SU says the excitement is still in Brooklyn this season but at least the team can start over – or until James Dolan identifies his next most favorite player.

Btw, this makes OKC a force out West now.  They will be a fun team to watch offensively with Westbrook, Paul George and Melo.  A lot of points going on the board in OKC this season.

Kanter plays zero defense but can certainly score.  McDermott was a first round pick a couple of years ago who can supposedly shoot from the outside.  At least they acquired assets that will make the roster.

SU is not happy about Tanaka.  He cannot be trusted now as they head to the playoffs.  Is he  your #3 starter vs. Cleveland if they get that far?  Hmmm.

Electronic Ticketing: A Work in Progress

First of all, a happy and healthy New Year to SU’s intergalactic Jewish subscribers.  SU made its Yankee Stadium debut last night in a family outing with long-time subscribers J. Levine and B. Levine.  As is custom, tickets were purchased through StubHub which is always a great deal.  However, Yankee Stadium no longer accepts paper tickets – you have to show your ticket on a mobile device.

Now, SU on its best days is technologically challenged.  And having just transitioned from the Blackberry to an i-phone for work purposes (OK, so I am slow to change), pulling up the ticket on the i-phone was a challenge unto itself.  But did you know that you have to take a screen shot of the StubHub ticket and then email it to whoever else is joining you for the game and coming on their own?  And did you know that if you are not careful and don’t pick up the small series of numbers at the bottom of the ticket on your screen shot, that you can’t get into the stadium?  If not, now you do.  SU learned the hard way and is now well-acquainted with many members of the Yankees’ box office and ticket-taking staff.  Let’s just say these were not pleasant interactions.

To quote Mad Dog, “bad job!”  Shouldn’t you be trying to maximize the fan experience?  Getting into the stadium became a long ordeal and with the rain, even more painful.  SU says go back to paper tickets as an option.  Somehow the airlines can manage this – why not the Yankees?

Interesting article from fivethirtyeight.com on how baseballs are being made.

Baseballs Are More Consistently Juiced Than Ever

MLB just set a new record for home runs in a season which is pretty amazing now that we are (allegedly) in the post PED era.  While most pitchers seem to throw in the high 90s today (as witnessed last night as Paul Molitor felt the need to use 7 relievers because he could with the expanded rosters) which no doubt contributes to fly balls going out faster and further, you have to wonder why the sudden increase?  This article makes the case that the way the balls are manufactured has something to do with it.  SU is now looking for the article that compares PEDs this season to PEDs of past years.

Michael Kay says that if the Yankees don’t at least win the Wild Card game, this is a disappointing season.  SU says no way.  I projected 82 wins at the start of the season and as a long-time Yankee fan, this has been a very good year with a firm switch to the youth movement and great promise for the future.  The Wild Card game is a crap shoot; you don’t define the season on one game.  Thoughts?

Finally, Eli Manning is taking a beating this week.  Check out this article below:

Eli Manning Is Profoundly Mediocre

Look, when you are riding the post-Yankee game Metro-North train home at 12:30 am with no-one else in your car, you have time on your hands.  We know long-time subscriber A. Grossman would agree with the article but SU says it’s overly harsh.  Eli is better than what the stats show.  What say you?

Silver Lining for NY Football Fans

OK, so the Giants and Jets are both winless in 2017 and generally appear to be non-competitive with glaring weaknesses everywhere.  On paper, not a good situation.  But SU says this is the chance for NY football fans to free up their Sundays and get outside.  Clearly, there is no need to set aside 3 hours to watch any of this.  It’s totally unwatchable and life is too short.  A few options for you:

  • go for a walk or a run.  Get in shape, build up your cardio fitness
  • go shopping (OK, that’s not for everyone)
  • go for a bike ride or kayaking (SU knows there are some dedicated kayakers in the intergalactic subscriber base)
  • sit outside and read a book

If you are a Knick fan, these tips will come in handy by say early November when the Knicks are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.  If you are a Yankee fan, well we still have a few weeks left.  A rare 1-run win last night over the Twins despite another meltdown inning by Betances.  SU says he is terrified of killing someone with his fastball which he cannot control.  A typical inning for him now is a hit batter, walk, strikeout, walk, wild pitch.  Girardi can no longer trust him for the 8th inning which is fine.  You can slot in Robertson and Green has emerged as a big time guy in the bullpen.  But they do need to straighten him out before the wild card game.

Boston continues to pull out some late inning wins and their schedule is easy so a division championship is highly unlikely.  It would be nice if Greg Bird took advantage of his opportunities but he seems to be like Rob Refsnyder and does his best to fall short.  SU does believe their best line up has him at first and Headley at 3rd with Todd Frazier on the bench but highly unlikely that will happen come post-season.

Does anyone see the Giants being able to figure this season out?  The offensive line can’t run block and can’t pass protect.  Otherwise, no worries.

Let’s Talk Run Differential

Long-time SU subscriber A. Grossman has been emailing SU all year long about the Yankees’ relatively high run differential for the season.  Many sabre metric experts say that run differential is one of the best predictors of team record – especially for the elite teams.  As of today, here are the leaders across all of baseball:

  • Cleveland: +227
  • Yankees: +174
  • Dodgers: +173
  • Houston: +151
  • Arizona: +145
  • Washington: +144

The Yankees should be projecting around 97 wins this year with the 2nd highest run differential across both Leagues.  Instead, they are still trying to secure the wild card and trail the Red Sox who have a run differential of +111.  How can this be you may ask?  SU says it’s this:

  • Late inning losses caused by a surprisingly bad bullpen.  Not only do they blow games, they hurt momentum
  • Bad hitting with RISP as SU has lamented all year long.  Just terrible at getting runners in from 3rd base with less than 2 outs
  • Record in close games is terrible – it was almost the opposite last season
  • Gary Sanchez allows a lot of passed balls and wild pitches late in games

Even now, the late innings are scary as Betances is a walk machine and Chapman is still not right.  SU says a successful season will be winning the wild card game and then playing competitively against the Indians in the Divisional series.  I will accept that and then look to next season as the youngsters are brought up and Todd Frazier moves on to strike out and hit home runs somewhere else.

Big Giant game tonight.  SU is expecting a much more effective offensive performance.  The NFL is so up and down early in the year.  Did you see the Cowboys get rocked against Denver?  They are not world beaters.  Atlanta looks really good – SU is surprised how well they are playing despite the Super Bowl loss hangover.  But you need to be 6 games into the season to really know what you have plus luck with injuries.

SU is worried about Michigan.  Great defense; lackluster offense.  Harbaugh either has no confidence in his QB or he is a very conservative play caller.  The rest of the country is playing wide open football; why so many runs up the middle on 1st and 2nd down?  SU says let them play a little.  They will not fare well in the Big Ten with this style offense.

Girardi Not Looking to Make Any Friends

In case you missed it yesterday, Joe Girardi made some unusual managerial decisions.  First, he removed journeyman pitcher, Jaime Garcia, with two outs in the 5th inning and one out away from notching his first Yankee win.  He apparently was not happy when taken out and Girardi let him have it in the dugout for whatever he expressed either verbally or otherwise.

Then, Betances was taken out with 2 outs in the 8th inning and a runner on 1st after striking out his last batter.  Girardi brought in Chapman who, of course, gave up a walk and a single for a run before notching a 4-out save.  Betances did not stick around in the clubhouse afterwards.

SU has no problem with either move.  Garcia allows a ridiculous number of baserunners every inning and is one of those pitchers, at this point in his career, where you need to get him out when he is facing batters for the 3rd time around.  Sabathia is in the same category this season.  He will be gone after this season and won’t make the post-season roster.  He should be happy he’s on a contending team.  As for Betances, he can’t throw his fastball for strikes and is walking a lot of batters now.  Look, truth is that Chapman is no sure thing either so you try and piece things together.  But when your starters go only 5 innings, you have to cover a lot of outs.

SU asks this question: statistically, aren’t you rolling the dice to assume that all of your relievers will be effective on any given day?  If David Robertson is effective in a game, why not pitch him a 2nd inning?  When you are trying to cover 4 innings, it feels like having all 4 relievers be on in a game is unlikely to happen.

SU has said it before: check your ego at the door.  And the same goes for the batters who continue to be so bad with runners in scoring position.  This will become a bigger problem in the post-season and in a Wild Card game.  But at least there are meaningful games being played down the stretch with a number of youngsters ready to move up next season.

Underwhelmed by the NFL

Full disclosure: SU actually prepared a post yesterday but somehow it did not show up on the site.  The global technical team is working on this as we speak.  But here are the highlights as SU is back from vacation out west but has a lot to say:

  • I know the NFL is incredibly popular and ESPN has shows all week long between games.  But for me, college football is just more exciting, more unpredictable and creates opportunities for crazy endings.  Players in the NFL are so good and fast that certain plays just can’t happen.  It also feels like there are so many mediocre teams that are unwatchable.  Part of the problem is that about half the teams don’t have an NFL quality QB while in college, it’s easier to be a high performing quarterback.
  • Eli Manning’s streak of 200 consecutive starts will no doubt be in jeopardy this season given the quality of the offensive line.  That first half was awful and even without OBJ, they need to show more on offense.  The defense is clearly good and strong at all positions.  But without a great running game, Eli needs more time.  SU would also like to see more no huddle but on Sunday night, understandably they didn’t want tot put the defense back out there so quickly with all of the 3 and outs.
  • SU loved seeing Ohio State lose to Oklahoma.  That was a beatdown in the 2nd half.  As predicted before, Urban Meyer may be looking to the NFL sooner than you think if this is another season where they don’t win the national championship.  They will need to run the table to get to the playoffs.
  • The Yankees finish the season with 17 of 20 games in New York which is a huge advantage.  The bullpen has just killed them the last two months; otherwise, they would be in 1st place.  SU is glad to see Chapman back in the closer role as Betances is too inconsistent at this point.  The Red Sox are not world beaters.  Cleveland clearly will head into the playoffs red hot even without Andrew Miller healthy.
  • Speaking of the Red Sox, what is it about Boston teams that makes them cheat?  SU liked the way they tried to deflect attention and claim the Yankees were also stealing signs.  Just check the Yankees’ average with RISP; believe me: if they are stealing signs, they are not getting the message to the batters.  They are inept with runners on base.
  • Great performances by the American women in the US Open.  While Nadal won another major, he really didn’t play any high seeds along the way.  The reality is that on the men’s side, the top players need to change their games to shorten points and make the game less physical.  Guys like Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka have to come to net more as winning with long, drawn out points is too demanding.  It will be interesting to see if they make these adjustments in 2018 when they return to action.
  • Interesting that Maria Sharapova has released an auto-biography.  Makes a point to bash Serena and basically say she does not like her (I guess a 2-19 lifetime record contributes to that).  She also has put out a 55-minute documentary about her drug test suspension and her comeback.  SU watched the first 20 minutes on the plane ride home.  My review: JUST STOP TALKING!  She is just not that interesting.  I guess the combination of the book and the movie are part of her comeback and repositioning.  She is quite the corporate enterprise.

Regarding the NFL, SU does not over-react from week #1 games; there is a long way to go and in the end, it’s all about injuries.  I expect the Giants to rebound nicely on Monday night – especially if Beckham returns.  And I expect my fantasy team to rebound as well!

 

Time to Check Your Ego at the Door

For Joe Girardi, who was ejected from a game for the 5th time this season, it’s time for his players to put their pride and egos aside.  The Red Sox have lost 4 in a row, and incredibly, the Yankees are only 2 back in the loss column with the Indians and Red Sox coming up on this home stand.  Chapman has lost his closer’s role – SU says good move – let him earn it back.  He has cost them too many key games over the past month.

And did you know that the Yankees’ run differential statistically should result in 97 wins this season?  97?  That is the result of Tyler Clippard, Betances and Chapman blowing so many saves this season.  But it’s also a reflection of Girardi’s managing.  He is in the last year of his contract.  They are on pace for 87 wins.

But now, what does he do with the line up?  Greg Bird is back and already has reached base 4 times in one start with 2 rbis today in a pinch hitting appearance.  Todd Frazier is something like 0 for 15; he needs to sit and permanently.  Move Headley to 3rd.  Ellsbury is hot after finally getting his shot and actually producing as SU has suggested for weeks.  But now what do you do with Matt Holliday?  They need to juggle at bats for the four outfielders and Holliday should not be slotted back into the DH role unless he is hitting on all cylinders.  Otherwise, keep him rehabbing down in Tampa.

And, SU says Aaron Judge has earned some days off.  It’s fine to not want to hurt his confidence but he is killing them with RISP over and over again.  Sanchez’s hot streak masked some of that but he could some time off and soon.  SU says move Judge down to 6th in the line up with some well timed days off.

This is winning time.  You cannot manage to the egos late in the season.  Take a seat and wait for your shot.  Competition for playing time is always a good thing and guys will get over it.

Get your peanuts!