Long-time SU subscriber A. Grossman has been emailing SU all year long about the Yankees’ relatively high run differential for the season.  Many sabre metric experts say that run differential is one of the best predictors of team record – especially for the elite teams.  As of today, here are the leaders across all of baseball:

• Cleveland: +227
• Yankees: +174
• Dodgers: +173
• Houston: +151
• Arizona: +145
• Washington: +144

The Yankees should be projecting around 97 wins this year with the 2nd highest run differential across both Leagues.  Instead, they are still trying to secure the wild card and trail the Red Sox who have a run differential of +111.  How can this be you may ask?  SU says it’s this:

• Late inning losses caused by a surprisingly bad bullpen.  Not only do they blow games, they hurt momentum
• Bad hitting with RISP as SU has lamented all year long.  Just terrible at getting runners in from 3rd base with less than 2 outs
• Record in close games is terrible – it was almost the opposite last season
• Gary Sanchez allows a lot of passed balls and wild pitches late in games

Even now, the late innings are scary as Betances is a walk machine and Chapman is still not right.  SU says a successful season will be winning the wild card game and then playing competitively against the Indians in the Divisional series.  I will accept that and then look to next season as the youngsters are brought up and Todd Frazier moves on to strike out and hit home runs somewhere else.

Big Giant game tonight.  SU is expecting a much more effective offensive performance.  The NFL is so up and down early in the year.  Did you see the Cowboys get rocked against Denver?  They are not world beaters.  Atlanta looks really good – SU is surprised how well they are playing despite the Super Bowl loss hangover.  But you need to be 6 games into the season to really know what you have plus luck with injuries.

SU is worried about Michigan.  Great defense; lackluster offense.  Harbaugh either has no confidence in his QB or he is a very conservative play caller.  The rest of the country is playing wide open football; why so many runs up the middle on 1st and 2nd down?  SU says let them play a little.  They will not fare well in the Big Ten with this style offense.

In case you missed it yesterday, Joe Girardi made some unusual managerial decisions.  First, he removed journeyman pitcher, Jaime Garcia, with two outs in the 5th inning and one out away from notching his first Yankee win.  He apparently was not happy when taken out and Girardi let him have it in the dugout for whatever he expressed either verbally or otherwise.

Then, Betances was taken out with 2 outs in the 8th inning and a runner on 1st after striking out his last batter.  Girardi brought in Chapman who, of course, gave up a walk and a single for a run before notching a 4-out save.  Betances did not stick around in the clubhouse afterwards.

SU has no problem with either move.  Garcia allows a ridiculous number of baserunners every inning and is one of those pitchers, at this point in his career, where you need to get him out when he is facing batters for the 3rd time around.  Sabathia is in the same category this season.  He will be gone after this season and won’t make the post-season roster.  He should be happy he’s on a contending team.  As for Betances, he can’t throw his fastball for strikes and is walking a lot of batters now.  Look, truth is that Chapman is no sure thing either so you try and piece things together.  But when your starters go only 5 innings, you have to cover a lot of outs.

SU asks this question: statistically, aren’t you rolling the dice to assume that all of your relievers will be effective on any given day?  If David Robertson is effective in a game, why not pitch him a 2nd inning?  When you are trying to cover 4 innings, it feels like having all 4 relievers be on in a game is unlikely to happen.

SU has said it before: check your ego at the door.  And the same goes for the batters who continue to be so bad with runners in scoring position.  This will become a bigger problem in the post-season and in a Wild Card game.  But at least there are meaningful games being played down the stretch with a number of youngsters ready to move up next season.

Full disclosure: SU actually prepared a post yesterday but somehow it did not show up on the site.  The global technical team is working on this as we speak.  But here are the highlights as SU is back from vacation out west but has a lot to say:

• I know the NFL is incredibly popular and ESPN has shows all week long between games.  But for me, college football is just more exciting, more unpredictable and creates opportunities for crazy endings.  Players in the NFL are so good and fast that certain plays just can’t happen.  It also feels like there are so many mediocre teams that are unwatchable.  Part of the problem is that about half the teams don’t have an NFL quality QB while in college, it’s easier to be a high performing quarterback.
• Eli Manning’s streak of 200 consecutive starts will no doubt be in jeopardy this season given the quality of the offensive line.  That first half was awful and even without OBJ, they need to show more on offense.  The defense is clearly good and strong at all positions.  But without a great running game, Eli needs more time.  SU would also like to see more no huddle but on Sunday night, understandably they didn’t want tot put the defense back out there so quickly with all of the 3 and outs.
• SU loved seeing Ohio State lose to Oklahoma.  That was a beatdown in the 2nd half.  As predicted before, Urban Meyer may be looking to the NFL sooner than you think if this is another season where they don’t win the national championship.  They will need to run the table to get to the playoffs.
• The Yankees finish the season with 17 of 20 games in New York which is a huge advantage.  The bullpen has just killed them the last two months; otherwise, they would be in 1st place.  SU is glad to see Chapman back in the closer role as Betances is too inconsistent at this point.  The Red Sox are not world beaters.  Cleveland clearly will head into the playoffs red hot even without Andrew Miller healthy.
• Speaking of the Red Sox, what is it about Boston teams that makes them cheat?  SU liked the way they tried to deflect attention and claim the Yankees were also stealing signs.  Just check the Yankees’ average with RISP; believe me: if they are stealing signs, they are not getting the message to the batters.  They are inept with runners on base.
• Great performances by the American women in the US Open.  While Nadal won another major, he really didn’t play any high seeds along the way.  The reality is that on the men’s side, the top players need to change their games to shorten points and make the game less physical.  Guys like Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka have to come to net more as winning with long, drawn out points is too demanding.  It will be interesting to see if they make these adjustments in 2018 when they return to action.
• Interesting that Maria Sharapova has released an auto-biography.  Makes a point to bash Serena and basically say she does not like her (I guess a 2-19 lifetime record contributes to that).  She also has put out a 55-minute documentary about her drug test suspension and her comeback.  SU watched the first 20 minutes on the plane ride home.  My review: JUST STOP TALKING!  She is just not that interesting.  I guess the combination of the book and the movie are part of her comeback and repositioning.  She is quite the corporate enterprise.

Regarding the NFL, SU does not over-react from week #1 games; there is a long way to go and in the end, it’s all about injuries.  I expect the Giants to rebound nicely on Monday night – especially if Beckham returns.  And I expect my fantasy team to rebound as well!

For Joe Girardi, who was ejected from a game for the 5th time this season, it’s time for his players to put their pride and egos aside.  The Red Sox have lost 4 in a row, and incredibly, the Yankees are only 2 back in the loss column with the Indians and Red Sox coming up on this home stand.  Chapman has lost his closer’s role – SU says good move – let him earn it back.  He has cost them too many key games over the past month.

And did you know that the Yankees’ run differential statistically should result in 97 wins this season?  97?  That is the result of Tyler Clippard, Betances and Chapman blowing so many saves this season.  But it’s also a reflection of Girardi’s managing.  He is in the last year of his contract.  They are on pace for 87 wins.

But now, what does he do with the line up?  Greg Bird is back and already has reached base 4 times in one start with 2 rbis today in a pinch hitting appearance.  Todd Frazier is something like 0 for 15; he needs to sit and permanently.  Move Headley to 3rd.  Ellsbury is hot after finally getting his shot and actually producing as SU has suggested for weeks.  But now what do you do with Matt Holliday?  They need to juggle at bats for the four outfielders and Holliday should not be slotted back into the DH role unless he is hitting on all cylinders.  Otherwise, keep him rehabbing down in Tampa.

And, SU says Aaron Judge has earned some days off.  It’s fine to not want to hurt his confidence but he is killing them with RISP over and over again.  Sanchez’s hot streak masked some of that but he could some time off and soon.  SU says move Judge down to 6th in the line up with some well timed days off.

This is winning time.  You cannot manage to the egos late in the season.  Take a seat and wait for your shot.  Competition for playing time is always a good thing and guys will get over it.

The Yankees and Tigers had quite the beanball war today.  There was some bad blood back in late July when the Yankees hit two of their players – one in the head by Kahnle.  Today, the Tigers hit Sanchez after yet another home run and things deteriorated from there.  Baseball likes to talk about taking care of things on the field but let’s face it: beanballs are stupid.  Especially when you have pitchers throwing in the high 90s these days.  Betances was ejected after hitting another batter in the head with the score 6-6.  You have to figure it wasn’t intentional but it looked bad.  SU lost some respect for Miguel Cabrera.  He made a big deal of his teammates not sticking up for him back in the Bronx in late July.  Today he got in Austin Romine’s face, shoved him and threw a punch.

The problem for the Yankees is that Sanchez threw some punches – he will get suspended just as he is red hot.  As Girardi likes to say, “It’s not what you want.”  Btw, Girardi was very emotional after the game with the media.  Hopefully, they will use this as motivation for the next couple of weeks.

SU made its first appearance at the US Open Qualification matches today.  Wow, this is a great deal.  Admission is free, the crowds are not big and you can pretty much sit wherever you’d like.  The level of play of these guys is only a notch below the top players.  They are really, really good.  SU focused on the top American players but the best of the bunch today were both Canadians: Denis Shapovalov is the 18-year old who made it to the semis in Montreal and took out Nadal.  He is terrific and will be a presence in the near future.  The other impressive player is just turned 17-year old Felix Auger-Aliassime.  Whoa, he is good.  While he lost his match, keep an eye on him in the coming years.  Anyway, this is a great experience without the crowds.  SU says check it out.

SU’s prediction for this year’s US Open is Sasha Zverev.  He is the hot player coming in having just won Montreal and is ready for that next step.  Federer is nursing a bad back, Murray is coming off a long layoff with a nagging hip injury and Nadal, while #1 now, is not a world beater on the hard courts.

SU is growing tired of the quarterback competitions in the NFL during the preseason.  Sure, it makes for good copy during exhibition season but let’s face it – the games are unwatchable.  But SU contends that especially when you are looking at 2 young QBs battling it out in the preseason, it’s just not that important.  Why?  Because one of two things will happen as soon as the season starts:

1. The starting QB is hurt almost immediately; or
2. The QB who “won” the starting position struggles mightily and after 1+ games, the coach makes the switch.

It just doesn’t matter.  Too much hype, too much talk.

What did you think of the Kyrie Irving trade to the Celtics?  SU is not fully getting this one for Boston.  Isiah Thomas was an MVP finalist last season and is a lot of fun to watch.  He plays with a lot of passion.  Irving is younger and I suppose a bit healthier as Thomas has a hip issue which may be worse than the Celtics let on.  Is that the reason that Boston had to give up more to get Irving?  Can Irving possibly have a better season than Thomas did?  For SU, it feels like the Celtics gave up too much.  Maybe Brad Stevens has the magic touch to get more out of Irving, i.e., make him pass the ball.

More importantly for Knick fans, does this open up something for a trade of Carmelo to Cleveland?

SU is impatiently waiting for the Greg Bird call-up which some fans feel is over-rated.  Need another left-handed bat in the line up.  End of story.

This question from long-time SU subscriber T. Potter: When an outfielder makes a spectacular catch at the wall but ends up going over the wall with the ball, why is that still an out?  If the fielder ends up in the stands or bullpen, shouldn’t that be an out?  SU says it should be an out and that you should have to remain on the field of play for it to be called an out.  But that is not the case.

Thoughts?

Well, we have seen better Subway Series over the years here in New York.  Actually, you have to give the under-manned Mets credit for competing in all of the games with a depleted roster.  All four games were relatively close and the Yankees managed to push across enough runs to get the badly needed wins.  They head up to Fenway 4 games out with a few things to encourage them:

• Sunday’s starter for the Red Sox is Doug Fister who is terrible – that should be a winnable game.  Of course, the Sale – Sabathia match-up tomorrow night is not ideal but that’s baseball.
• Gary Sanchez has heated up and is starting to carry the team.  If the Yankees can just get Judge not to be terrible, they might have something here.  Todd Frazier is amazingly still hitting .207 – just what he was hitting when acquired from the White Sox.  And yet, and yet, there he is in the line up every day.  But Greg Bird is finally rehabbing and maybe next week we move Headley back to 3rd base and Frazier anywhere else.  SU says MLB should field a team of all swing and miss, .200 hitters — you know Todd Frazier, Chris Carter, and even Aaron Judge since the All-Star break.  There season stats would be very cool: 35 home runs, 50 rbis.  They could all be exposed for what they are.
• Having won 4 games in a row, the Yankees come to Beantown feeling good about themselves as John Flaherty likes to say.  Of course, the Red Sox are still red hot.  SU says how about a little nastiness this weekend?  It’s been a long time coming.  Hey, if you bring in Chapman or Betances, you are sure to have some hit batters.  Bring out A-Rod and Varitek, Pedro and Zimmer, Munson and Lee.  Enough of the big hugs.

Hard to believe the NFL season starts in just a few weeks.  Experts see the Jets as being historically bad.  SU says that should not happen in the NFL.  It’s easier to retool without guaranteed contracts.  I am feeling the Giants should be good although facing a tougher schedule.

Finally, SU was down in Frisco, Texas this week visiting the Dallas Cowboys’ new training facility.  SU is no fan of the Cowboys but you have to admire Jerry Jones.  He got Frisco to give him 185 acres and he built a brand new training facility, 12,000 seat indoor stadium for high school football and indoor practices, an exclusive members only club overlooking the Cowboys practice fields that must be as big as a full football field with all the posh couches, big screen tvs, etc.  There is a huge health club, bars, restaurants, Cowboy stores, guided tours for visitors.  The dude thinks big and really has the vision.  If you are ever down that way and had the urge to sweat profusely in Dallas in the summer, worth a visit.

Will there be fireworks in Beantown?  Do the Yankees have a chance still for the Division?

When you are chasing a division leader, the head-to-head series are just that much more important as you control your own destiny.  The Yankees lost 2 of 3 and were in great position last night to win the series.  So, what happened?

• Aroldis Chapman is no Mariano Rivera.  Of course, no one is but at $85 million for 5 years, he is supposed to be better than 4 blown saves already this year.  He barely hung on Friday night and was exposed again last night.  A key takeway for SU this weekend is how many pitchers are throwing 100 mph these days.  As in almost everyone.  The batters are speeding up their swings to make the adjustment and you still need a second pitch that won’t allow them to sit on that pitch.  Girardi will stick with him although SU predicts that tonight, if there is a save opportunity, it will be someone else to give Chapman “a night off.”  Check your ego at the door and just cash your paycheck if you don’t like it.
• Speaking of paychecks, who’s contract will prove to be worse: Chapman’s or Ellsbury’s?  Ellsbury has been given many chances of late to come through including last night.  He continues to come up short and has settled in at .240 with no power.  Embarrassing.  Chapman is already proving to be mortal in only his 1st year.  SU says you don’t throw big dollars at closers other than Mariano.  They are too up and down and five years is a long time.
• The Red Sox don’t have the power hitters but they all put the ball in play.  That is the difference with the Yankees who swing and miss a lot and have no clue when it comes to situational hitting.  When you play a lot of close games, not getting in runners with a ground ball when the infield is back is a killer.  Judge and Sanchez are front and center in that regard.  But they are still young and will figure it out.
• They still play the Red Sox two more series and will face Sales again two more times for a total of 5 times this year.  While he is great, wouldn’t you think that you would start to pick up a few things when you face the same pitcher that many times?  Here is one thing: he starts almost every right-handed hitter with a slider on the outside corner.  Maybe sit on that pitch and take it to right field?  Just a thought.

Bottom line: this was not the year for the Yankees to make their move.  SU says they are ahead of schedule and I will not get down.  Many more games to go.  But I will say this: NO HOME RUN DERBY IN 2018 for Judge.  Say what you want but his slump began right after the All-Star Break and his swing has a bigger upper cut than it did before.  It’s not a coincidence.

Interesting scene at the 18th green in yesterday’s PGA Championship.  Several of the PGA TOUR’s 20-something stars (Spieth, Fowler) stuck around to cheer on their 24-year old friend, Thomas.  That was pretty cool.  They are competitors but friends as well.  You do not see that much in professional sports.

Generation Next in tennis was on display up in Montreal this weekend.  Sasha Zverev is 20 I believe and he won his 2nd tournament in a row easily beating Federer in the finals.  There was an 18-year old Canadian, Denis Shapovalov, born in Israel and raised in Canada, who beat Nadal and made it to the semis.  He is really good and will be part of the next generation of star players.  It’s good for tennis as the Big Four start to break down.  Zverev might be the favorite going into the US Open or at least right up there with Federer.

OK, are you ready?  The Knicks are reportedly close to signing Michael Beasley to a 1-year deal.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20285835/new-york-knicks-close-agreement-michael-beasley

For those of you unfamiliar with Beasley, he is instant offense.  As in pass him the ball, and it is not coming out of there.  He must be right up there in the League leaders for “shots per touches”.  SU would guess that Monta Ellis is #1 followed by Kyrie Irving with Carmelo Anthony right behind.  In fact, if the Knicks do trade for Irving, they won’t even need a point guard this year which could save a few dollar in payroll.  As stated here many times, SU gave up on the Knicks once Isiah Thomas came to town and except for a brief period when they had Linsanity and then the Felton, Chandler, Gallinari line up, well, they are unwatchable.  But as a fan, you want to get behind a team that is team-oriented and guys like Beasley are not the answer.  Still room on the Brooklyn Nets bandwagon – just let me know.

SU is 100% behind Joe Girardi’s decision to bench Gary Sanchez and send a message that defense matters just as much as offense.  I had noticed the extra bulk coming into this season for Sanchez.  And let’s face it: he has become a hazard behind the plate.  So many wild pitches and passed balls late in games.  So many trips to the mound to talk to the pitchers.  He makes it impossible for them to get in a rhythm.  SU recognizes that he has still not played a full season in the Majors with his injury earlier in the year, and he certainly has a strong arm.  Brian Cashman noted that his extra muscle/bulk is probably contributing to being less flexible this year.  I would also point out that he had attitude issues in the minor leagues over the years.

SU is sure he has now gotten the message and will try a little harder and work on his defense.  Plus he is not setting the world world on fire offensively this season.  I also note that for Girardi, who almost never publicly criticizes his players, this must have been the last straw.  It’s something to watch now.

SU is bullish on the Yankees’ chances now assuming the following happens:

• The Yankees need Castro to return fully healthy along with Hicks.  Assuming Matt Holliday stays on the DL (and he needs to stay there), this will allow Ellsbury to get some DH at bats or at least play a little more.  He is ready to start contributing now.
• Greg Bird needs to return in late August and assume his 1st base duties.  Then they can move Headley back to 3rd base and Designate for Assignment Todd Frazier.  Let’s face the truth: he joined the team hitting .206 and I think he is still hitting .206 with no power and a ton of strikeouts.  Help me here: what is the attraction?  A swing and miss guy with the occasional bases empty home run?  Don’t need it.  Play Torreyes then who has a lot of rbis for few at bats.
• They need an offensive jump start and have 3 players ready to rejoin the line up.  But you can’t keep rolling out so many swing and miss hitters who have no clue how to hit in different situations.

SU is not happy about the demotion of Montgomery today.  Give Jaime Garcia one more start and if he is bad again, send him packing and bring back Montgomery.  The division is there to be had.  Eduardo Nunez is not going to carry the Red Sox for weeks and weeks.  Btw, do you think maybe he would have done just a little better than Todd Frazier?  The moral of the story is always go with the SU favorites.

Stan Wawrinka now out for the rest of the season as he joins Djokovic on the DL.  Unreal how the tennis players are dropping.  There is only a one month off season in tennis (December) and it may be time to re-visit the scheduling.  Tennis like other sports is based on star players and if you keep losing your top guns, attendance is going to start paying the price.

Finally, as we near the start of the NFL season, Fantasy League team owners stay away from Jay Cutler who I thought had retired.  He will only disappoint.