If you think about other professional sports, SU can see how home field/court/ice makes a difference in football, basketball and hockey come playoff time.  You play all year to have that final game of the series at home.  But in baseball, at least in the post-season, I don’t recall seeing the trend we are seeing this year in the past.  The Astros looked as overwhelmed playing in NY as the Yankees did in Houston and in Cleveland for that matter.  Actually, the Yankees September schedule was so back-loaded at home that they played 17 of their final games in the Bronx and had a great record.  This has clearly carried over into the playoff rounds and they look like a different team.  Part of that may also be youth and not being the gritty Paul O’Neil type warriors just yet who embrace playing on the road.  Judge hits the large majority of his home runs at home, and the Yankees season road record was 40-41.

Anyway, this series feels a lot like the 2001 World Series with Arizona.  Back then, the Yankees were listless in games 1 and 2, and then won 3 tense, low scoring games at home including two walk-off wins.  You would have thought they had all the momentum going back to Arizona but Andy Pettitte got rocked in game 6 and then of course, we had the heart-breaking game 7 ending.  As John Sterling likes to say, in baseball, “momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher.”  Beating Verlander will be a challenge for sure and then anything can happen in game 7.

SU says the one factor is this: Houston has been in 1st place with a huge lead all year.  Really the full season.  They have played with no stress.  For the first time now, they are playing in an elimination game.  The pressure is on them.  Verlander thrives in these situations but how about their young hitters?  That will be the key.  Can they regain their mojo now at home which almost makes it more pressurized before the nervous home town fans.

The Yankee bats have come alive.  Even Chase Headley had 3 hits.  There is production up and down the line-up now.  SU worries about Severino. Not sure what was going on with him in game 2.  He does appear to get too amped up and he is not a lock in game 6 to be good.

As SU has said before, the Yankees are playing with house money.  This is all gravy.  They have arrived ahead of schedule.

For Yankee fans, you remember certain post-season games in greater detail.  The Joe Girardi triple in game 6 against the Braves in the World Series where the stadium was shaking.  Aaron Boone’s home run in game 7 of the ALCS vs. Boston, Ken Griffey’s triple  in game 5 vs. Seattle and of course, game 7 against Arizona plus all of the walk off wins that series.  SU says last night’s game goes in that category for drama.

The Yankees were dead in the water for 6 innings.  They would have been no hit if not for Todd Frazier’s bloop single.  The highlight for SU was Chase Headley’s double but as he had not had an extra base hit since September 10th, he, of course, falls down between 1st and 2nd.  Making it to 2nd base was the key play of the inning to keeps things moving.  Sanchez’s double to right field combined with his sac fly to right is a positive sign of things to come now for him.  He needs to go the other way and stop pulling.  Judge appears to be starting another hot stretch.  Didi shows how to go to left field.  As dramatic a win as I can remember.  This team plays with a lot of heart and whether you like Girardi or not, he sets the tone.  The complaints that he makes his players tense and stressed is BS.  The one thing about post-season baseball is that you can go from goat to hero in the blink of an eye.

Sooooo, about tonight’s game.  SU has a few suggestions:

• You have to get Torreyes in the line up.  History says they do not hit Keuchel with the normal line up.  You can put him in at DH or what would be better, play him at 2nd base.  Castro made 2 errors yesterday and if you noticed on his last at bat, Girardi called to him from the dugout to see if he was ok.  SU believes there is something physical going on with him as he is normally very sure-handed in the field.  Let’s give him the day off and you can always use him to pinch hit as necessary.
• I would DH Sanchez again and put Romine back there.  Look, he wasn’t that good in game 4 – especially with the catcher’s interference which cost them a run – but Tanaka is another pitcher who is in the dirt all the time.  Headley has shown signs of life but only from the left side.  Holliday had his shot – too painful to watch.
• Note to all right handed hitters: do not swing at the inside pitches.  Take the outside pitches to the opposite field.  That has to be the plan.

SU is feeling very proud of the team today.  It’s a great group of guys.  Even Todd Frazier is growing on me although you need to leave 3rd base open for next season for Gleybar Torres.  If you watch Judge in the post-game interview, he is very thoughtful with his responses.  Takes a moment to consider every question.  Teams with high character players like Judge and Didi are rare these days.  Most of the time you put up with the likes of OBJ and try to hold your nose.  Not so with the Yankees this year.

As expected, the Yankees rebounded with a comfortable win last night.  But let’s acknowledge that aside from Judge’s home run, some of those hits were not exactly sharp line drives.  In fact, most of them were not.  True, the Astros made some nice plays in the field as did Judge, but the Yankee offense has still not showed itself in this series.  Nor have the Astros hit – really at all – and they should feel fortunate to be up 2-1 in the series.

If you watched last night, Sanchez continues to have a hard time catching the ball and SU says it may be impacting his hitting.  Or vice versa.  In any event, CC knows where his pitches are going and Sanchez still dropped or missed several.  Sonny Gray is going tonight and as we know, no-one knows where those pitches are heading.  Four wild pitches in game 1 of the ALDS.  SU says start Romine behind the plate and put Sanchez in at DH.  Allow him to just concentrate on his hitting.  Romine is a much better defensive catcher and can help to control the running game better.  You know there will be more traffic on the bases tonight with Gray who will throw 97 pitches to get through 4 innings with several walks.  The good news is that you lose nothing offensively as putting Headley or Ellsbury on the bench just loses 1 single for all of the post-season.

No-one is mentioning it but SU says watch for this bold Girardi move this afternoon.  Every run will matter today and perhaps it gets Sanchez untracked.

Thoughts?

The fans are demanding that SU weigh in on tonight’s game.  Note the weather: should be in the 50s with a breeze and colder as the game goes on.  Advantage Yankees and disadvantage Astros who are a warm weather team.  Watch for the hoodies and the blowing on the hands.  SU is predicting a Yankee win tonight as they have been good in the elimination games and this will feel like one.  Look for Chase Headley to have a big game (no, that is not a typo).  He showed signs of life in game 2.  It’s coming.  Greg Bird is my other player of the game.  And Aaron Judge’s ground outs were actually big – he will channel that into something more.  Sanchez is still lost at the plate.

How about those Giants?!  All it takes is having someone else call the plays.  Hey, you never know and let’s face it, the NFL is pretty mediocre this year.  Lots of parity and no one team stands out in the NFC.  The Eagles will no doubt come down to earth soon enough.  I must say it was fun not having to watch OBJ dancing around out there.  They really dominated last night against a good Denver defense on the road.  Beat Seattle at home this week and then let’s see what you have.

The Jets got robbed on that TD call in the 4th quarter.  That was just wrong.  SU does not like the whole NFL rule about catches where you “have to complete the catch.”  That was a catch, a bobble and then a catch.  20 years ago, that was a touchdown.  Heck, 5 years ago that was a touchdown.  SU says unnecessary to give the Patriots any further advantage.

Keep an eye on the Dodgers.  That’s 5 in a row and as long-time subscriber A. Grossman likes to say, “they have the karma.”  It just may be their year.

Finally, SU will be on site this weekend in Happy Valley to see Michigan take on Penn State on a white out night with fellow SU subscribers B. Levine and J. Silver.  This could be ugly but hey, you never know.  On paper, not the best match up for Michigan.  Go Blue.

SU says it’s clearly not ideal and you would prefer to be heading home to New York with the series tied at 1-1 vs. being down 0-2.  But let’s step back and see what’s gone on here so far:

• The Yankee hitters strike out at a historic rate.  Some are tough at bats and then there are the Gary Sanchez ones where he is missing by 2-3 feet in 3 pitches.  As said here many times, they don’t manufacture runs and rely on the home run.  Clearly not working in games 1 and 2.
• They have been out-scored 4-2.  Certainly not blowout losses but the 2-0 deficit in game 1 felt enormous and let’s be honest: did you really think they were going to win game 2 with the scored tied 1-1?  SU did not.  They never threatened in any inning.  That’s why I was not overly distraught by the play in the bottom of the 9th inning – it felt more like putting them out of their misery than a crushing defeat.
• But about that play.  How does Sanchez not take off his mask there?  It makes it that much harder to see and field a low throw from Didi.  He should have stepped forward and caught the ball and then lunged back to nail the runner.  Sure, it was an aggressive National League type of play to send the runner but he should have been out by a mile and then it was a dumb send by the 3rd base coach.  Sanchez is a great offensive catcher with a gun for an arm but we have all seen his defensive liabilities throughout the season.  No one is surprised that he failed to scoop the throw cleanly – certainly not any Yankee pitcher.
• The reality is that when you score 1 run a game, tough to win.  Chase Headley showed signs of life at the DH spot yesterday and deserves another start in game 3.  SU does not think the Astros will start Keuchel until game 5 but I could be wrong.  They may want him lined up for a game 7 if necessary.  Btw, if he starts in game 4 or 5, can we please put Torreyes in the DH slot?  Someone with a short swing who hit .290 for the year and can produce against a tough pitcher.

As Pat Riley likes to say, a series does not officially start until one team loses on its home court.  SU believes in that and if they can find a way to win in game 3, things will look differently.  If they don’t, well there it is.  But the priority needs to be on offense to at least put the ball in play and make the adjustments.  Judge has been making contact more the last two games and he might just be ready to get untracked – yet again.  Sanchez and Castro must hit to right field.  How do they not see that or recognize that’s necessary?

Finally, an appeal to FOX.  Get rid of the box at home plate.  Unless you tell us that you are meticulously fitting this for every batter, it’s just an annoyance and it makes the umpire look bad on almost every pitch.  The real fans watch games all season long without it.  And finally, finally, as SU has said many times, the umpires get the close calls correctly about 30% of the time.  It’s amazing how many calls they miss but to be honest, very hard to see.  I know baseball has the human element and all that but other sports are working to get calls correct and baseball needs to incorporate technology more.

So,  Yankee fans and Yankee haters, is the series over?  Or is there life in the Bronx come Monday night?

Stop the presses!  The Yankees are dusting off Matt Holliday at DH tonight to face Dallas Keuchel.  SU says it’s a no-brainer.  Combined, Headley and Ellsbury do not have a hit in the post-season covering 6 games including the wild card.  This is his big chance.  One hit could guarantee him a start for the remainder of the series.

You should check out the Yankees’ career numbers against Keuchel.  Yikes.  If you ran a predictive analysis, maybe they get 2 hits and are shut out.  But hey, this is the post-season and anything can and will happen.

SU is not into predictions unless pressed to do so but I will make one for tonight.  Look for an Aaron Judge home run to right field.  Enough of the strikeouts.  Time to make a statement.

What a difference five days make.  Last Friday night, every baseball sportswriter was calling for Joe Girardi’s head for not challenging the foul tip call and taking CC Sabathia out too soon.  Outrageous!  He’s too serious, too programmed, not instinctual, makes the players stressed and nervous, etc.  Hey, let’s fire him – time for new blood in the Bronx.

Fast forward to this morning.  It seems Girardi gathered his team together before game 3 and asked them to win one game – one game – Sunday night.  And SU fave, Todd Frazier (more on that in a minute) spoke up and made it clear the players had his back and let’s go.

Those same sportswriters are now saying that Girardi’s career is intact once again and that the world forgives him for his brain freeze moment.  As written here for several days, SU had Girardi’s throughout,  did not believe any challenge would overturn that call, and dismissed the screeds of people like Joel Sherman in the New York Post.  If you stayed up late like SU last night to watch Girardi’s post-game comments, you saw an emotional Girardi that you never see.  He truly felt terrible about not challenging the call and wanted so badly for the team to somehow win this series.  Say what you want about Terry Francona and his loose way of managing, his instinctual use of pitchers didn’t work in this series.  In the end, his players were the ones who looked tight.  Score one for Joe Girardi and his team last night.

Let’s see how SU’s keys to the game played out last night:

• Don’t start Headley.  Check although he did get in for 2 at bats and continued to look over-matched.
• Keep Didi in the 3rd hole.  Yup, he hits well there.
• Pray that Judge hits an off speed pitch.  Not so much.  Struck out 4 times but did ground out that last time which for him right now is like hitting a home run.  SU predicts carryover in game 1 Friday night in Houston.  And I am serious.  The good news is that he did not swing and miss in the clubhouse celebration.
• Greg Bird.  Eh, not so much there either.
• Cody Allen.  Ah!! He did give it up in the 9th inning.  Got one right.

Final comment: Todd Frazier is growing on me.  I still hate that he is a .200 hitter who swings for the downs all the time.  But he showed me something last night with a couple of grind it out at bats and he is a good clubhouse guy.  You can hit him 9th as Chase Headley is so lost right now he needs to sit and watch.  Actually, with Keuchel starting for Houston, might as well give Matt Holliday a shot at DH in game 1.  He literally cannot do any worse than either Headley or Ellsbury.

SU says that is a big deal.  He had 38 home runs and 107 rbis this year plus it’s an emotional lift for Cleveland.  I don’t believe he has good numbers off of Sabathia though lifetime.  Also, Ellsbury at DH looking for the first hit in the post-season from anyone at the DH position for the Yankees.

Trey Burke signs with the Knicks.  Always a good move to have former Michigan players on the roster.  Even if he ends up on the D-League team, that is also good as SU can watch him at the Westchester County Center.

John Farrell out at Boston and Dusty Baker looking very disorganized with the Nationals as they flip flop starters and his story is not consistent.  If nothing else, Joe Girardi looks better than these guys.

It’s been several years since the Yankees have played pressure packed games in October.  The 2015 Wild Card game with the Brian McCanns and Chase Headleys was never a contest.  Just over-matched.  If you have some free time, check out the Yankees’ post-season roster for that game.  Dustin Ackley?  Oy.  While Brian Cashman deserves tremendous credit for finally getting the Yankees on the youth movement track, he also deserves blame for giving us Travis Hafner and the like for several years before then.

It’s easy to make predictions for tonight’s game but of course, hard to be right.  SU feels strongly that the Yankees need to score first to win this.  The reason is that they can’t manufacture runs unlike other teams – including the Indians.  When you live and die by the home run, it gets harder to come from behind as the game goes on as pitchers know you are up there looking for the big fly.  They just expand the strike zone (see Aaron Judge for examples of expansion).  Kluber does this better than anyone.  But it’s all tremendous fun and unexpected for this year.  SU says enjoy the game and hope for the best.

SU caught a little of the Oklahoma City preseason game last night to see how our friend Carmelo was faring.  He looks a little over-weight to me but it might be the new uniform.  But what was striking was this line in the box score: 16 minutes, 17 shots.  Better spend some time in the weight room keeping those arms and shoulders in shape.  I wish him well in the Western Conference and he will thrive playing the 4 position.  But glad not to have to watch that style of play at MSG anymore.  That is not basketball.

Long-time SU subscriber, D. Harmon, sent this article along to SU regarding the benching of Eli Manning after the next 5 games:

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/giants/giants-bench-eli-manning-5-games-article-1.3551627

Interesting idea and it would allow them to assess a possible successor to Eli.  This season is lost and they have no healthy wide receivers.  Why not?

Yankee fans and Girardi haters, in case you have not noticed it, Girardi has managed his team to win 3 elimination games in less than a week.  I have read and heard all the complaints: manages by the book; too tense; makes his players tense; committed to his binder; and has the game laid out hours in advance and won’t deviate.

Well, last night, did he have Tommy Kahnle pitching the last 2 innings?  SU says probably not.  I did not have a problem giving Betances the 8th inning but he earned being taken out after two walks.  Luckily, he didn’t kill anyone with his fastball.  SU says do not expect to see him again in any close game the rest of this post-season.  Too bad as he’s a nice guy who wants to do well but is scared he could actually kill someone with his fastball as he has no clue where it’s going.

SU says Brian’ O’Nora’s strike zone last night was either terrible or else the FOX virtual box for the strike zone was not lined up properly.  So many missed calls on the corners – for both teams.  SU says take the box off there.  It’s an unneeded distraction and it just becomes annoying.  The YES Network has an overhead shot of home plate that helps to determine if pitches are on the corners.  Is that not available?  And while we are at it, can FOX once in a while reference who is warming up or not warming up in the Yankee bullpen?

Did you see the stats on the record of post-season starts by pitchers on 3 days rest?  Something like 2-4 with a 5.35 ERA.  So, why go that route last night for the Indians?  They have 5 legitimately good starters with impressive records.  A sign of panic?  No doubt Kluber will be his normal self tomorrow night.  SU is a bit worried about Sabathia.  I agree he should start over Gray and the Indian hitters seem to have more trouble with the soft tossers which is what CC is at this point in his career.  But the recency effect is legit – you start to get used to the pitchers you see frequently.  SU also was surprised that Francona rolled out all of his relievers last night except for Miller – same thing applies.  He is helping the Yankee hitters by pitching them so frequently.

I would have CC on a short leash tomorrow night.  You will know early if his change up and curve are on or are rolling up there.  The Yankees must score first against Kluber.  One thing I notice about the Indians is that they show no signs of panic.  They are a loose team.  It comes from not having lost 2 games in a row for the past 45 games.  That will be a factor tomorrow night.

Keys to game 5:

• Do not start Chase Headley.  Of course, neither he or Ellsbury has a hit in the post-season but he is late on every pitch.
• Keep Didi at the 3rd spot and Bird 5th.  This forces Francona to mix and match more with his relievers and it breaks up the right handed bats.
• Pray that Judge sits on an off speed pitch just once and lays off the high fastball.
• Greg Bird.
• Hope that Francona relies on Cody Allen to close.  I am convinced he is poised to give it up.

As a Yankee fan, I have no complaints.  The team shows heart, resilience and is having fun.  Plus, the Red Sox have already lost which makes us all feel good.