OK, the statistics are there: late season momentum apparently has no bearing on playoff success in baseball.  History shows that “hot” teams go cold come October and struggling teams all of a sudden show new life and go on a run.  Many managers believe in resting their regulars and could care less about home field advantage (see Joe Torre and it’s hard to argue with his success with the Yankees).  The reality is that teams can get hot at the right time and adrenaline just takes over as Buck Showalter believes.  So, what will happen in 2015?

SU picked the St. Louis Cardinals to win it all back in April and I don’t believe in changing a preseason pick if it is still in play.  But here is how things will play out:

American League

The Yankees are running on fumes.  They have truly limped into the playoffs.  It’s not Joe Girardi’s fault.  He is dealing with the hand he was dealt by Brian Cashman and let’s face it – their bullpen is really thin.  You have starters that cannot go more than 5-6 innings and that ultimately placed too much pressure on the three relievers who can actually get people out.  You combine that with your $160 million bust of a centerfielder in Jacoby Ellsbury and your over-rated 3rd baseman in Chase Headley and you are in trouble.  Houston will throw a legitimate left-hander on Tuesday in Keuchel albeit on 3 days rest but the reality is that any left-hander can shut the Yankees down.  They have played sub-.500 since the All-Star Game and without Greg Bird, they would have likely missed the playoffs.  One and done and if they get behind early, that will do it with little drama.  SU is accused of being overly negative about the Yankees but they have earned it.  Brian McCann has the worst average in all of baseball since the All-Star Game (.199), Brett Gardner has the 3rd worst and A-Rod is 4th.  No doubt Ellsbury is right in there as well.  Headley just can’t do anything with RISP.  The Astros are playing with house money and their best days are in front of them.

Toronto takes Texas in 4 games, and KC sweeps the Astros.  Then, Toronto over KC for the pennant.

National League

SU would have preferred to see the Mets get home field vs. the Dodgers but so be it.  I actually think the Dodgers will feel the pressure to win this year and that makes the offense struggle just a little more.  This may not be the Mets’ time just yet with their young pitching staff but I think they win the Division Series in 5 games as LA once again comes up short.  The Pirates will beat the Cubs in the wild card game (which is a great match-up).  Cardinals over the Pirates and then they beat the Mets in the LCS in a rematch of 2006.

Finally, St. Louis over Toronto for the World Series with scarily low ratings outside of St. Louis and Toronto.

Anyone disagree?  Anyone feeling like the Yankees have a run in them?  Feel free to weigh in and go on the record.  If you are right, SU will give the appropriate props come early November and you can bask in the glow of being right.

SU is preparing to issue its MLB playoff predictions.  However, the editorial staff felt that the intergalactic subscriber base might first be interested in what SU said back in April for the 2015 season:

In the American League, this feels like a wide open field.  Many of the experts are picking Seattle but SU is not feeling that.  They are still offensively challenged and while Nelson Cruz is a big addition, you know he will immediately go into a funk hitting in spacious SafeCo Field.  The AL East actually has a fair amount of parity.  Many are high on Toronto but they seem to always come up with some unexpected injuries and fade by June.  The Red Sox added offense but their pitching has lots of question marks including a season starting hamstring injury to the world’s most annoying closer (Uehara).  The Rays are truly bad and the Yankees, well, we will get to them in a second.  The Orioles lost some guys but get others back from injury.  SU sees them taking the division.

Watch out for the White Sox in the Central with the pick-ups of David Robertson and Melky Cabrera (long-time SU fave).  Out West, the A’s are worse and Texas is terrible which helps to have a Wild Card come out of that division.  SU will go with the Angels.  Wild cards will be Seattle and Detroit.  Look for the Tigers to add some pieces come trade deadline and make it to the World Series this year.

As for the Yankees, Tanaka is already saying his velocity will be down this year.  Not a good sign.  By his 2^nd start, that will go out the window and he will be throwing full throttles which will then lead to injury.  There is just no way he is finishing the season.  CC was rocked all spring, Pineda never makes all of his starts and SU believes the bullpen without Robertson is not a sure thing.  Offensively, blecch.  A-Rod is the most interesting aspect of the line-up.  By the way, he will win the Comeback Player of the Year Award (or MLB’s newest award: “Best Season by a Former PED User”).  Look for an 82-80 record and tons of empty seats by July.

In the National League, SU is intrigued by the Mets.  Many say they are still a year away and have lots of holes offensively and in the bullpen.  But those can be plugged as the season unfolds and if Granderson can go back to his AL hitting ways, this team can win some low scoring games with strong starting pitching.  SU sees an 88-74 season and more importantly, a Wild Card in their future as they finish behind everyone’s favorites, the Washington Nationals.  And yes, the Mets take over the town and the back pages.  This is the year as the Yankees are truly, truly uninteresting.

The Giants win in the even years and it’s St. Louis in the odd ones.  Cardinals take the Central and the Dodgers win the West.  The Pirates will grab the other wild card spot.  St. Louis over Detroit in the World Series.  OK, enough of that – too exhausting.  SU has never liked doing the preseason stuff but feels obligated to help the intergalactic fan base.

OK, my American League predictions were a shambles – plain and simple.  But certainly respectable for the National League.  The analytics staff is already busy running models for this year’s playoffs.  Tune back in Sunday for that.

So, the question some may ask of Yankee fans is the following: Is making the playoffs as a Wild Card this year a successful season?  SU would say it’s not a successful season.  Did they surpass my expectations?  Yes, because the roster that Cashman gave Girardi was old and overly left-handed.  Think about it.  If not for unexpectedly strong years by Texeira and A-Rod, they would likely be a sub-.500 team.  Can anything happen in the playoffs for a wild card team?  Of course, and we have seen that time and time again of late.  But without Tex’s right-handed bat in the middle of the line-up, they are really vulnerable to left-handed pitching as we have seen in August and September.

What is more troubling is that the Yankees face the same pitchers over and over again and are unable to make an adjustment to improve their performance.  David Price, RA Dickey, Rodriguez on the Red Sox, the list goes on and on.  SU believes that whoever the Yankees face in the wild card game, that team will throw out any left-handed pitcher – even a 4th or 5th starter.  Tanaka will keep the game close but in the end, it will be another frustrating loss.  The good news is that we got a glimpse of some youngsters this year and hopefully there will be more of a commitment to play them next season.  There is a reason that the Yankees are not selling out these last home games – the team is uninspiring.  Stay tuned for SU’s fearless baseball playoff predictions as well as a comparison with our preseason picks.  Always interesting especially if we were reasonably close.

SU has had some time in the car of late and flipped back and forth between Michael Kay and the Imperious One, Mike Francesa.  I have always been a Michael Kay fan but now that he shares time with Don Lagrecca and Dave Rothenberg, they just babble on about non-sports related things.  They have become unlistenable and that’s too bad.  It’s too bad because I am forced to listen to “Miked Up” and him talking in triplicate.  Truth be told, the way he repeats everything is actually entertaining and I am starting to think he may be doing this on purpose for people like me.  Definitely hitting rock bottom.

SU is excited about the Michigan football resurgence as they have once again cracked the top 25.  I am still not thrilled with the QB, Jake Rudock, as he is a poor man’s Ryan Fitzpatrick at best, but the defense is solid and Jim Harbaugh has brought back the enthusiasm from the fan base.  It’s shaping up to be an exciting college football season as no team is that dominant and the SEC is not quite the sure thing of years past.

SU congratulates the Mets on wrapping up the Eastern Division in fine style.  Clearly, there was no reason to be nervous about another late season collapse.  The offense is once again clicking (games against the Reds and Phillies are very good for that) and they should now look to get home field advantage in that first round series with the Dodgers.  SU says that is huge.  Having the extra game at Citifield could be the difference in winning the first round of the playoffs.  They should not adopt the Joe Torre approach of resting half your regulars every game but rather keep the foot on the gas and get the better record.

Meanwhile, SU was was very, very disappointed to learn that the reason Stephen Drew was being held out of the line-up the last 2 weeks was because he’s been feeling dizzy, not because he was benched.  Now, Girardi/Cashman may still put him on the post-season roster.  How can this be?  I was positive they had finally seen the light and at a minimum would play Ackley ahead of him and maybe even Refsnyder over Brendan Ryan.  It’s time to sacrifice a little defense to get some more offense.  How can they not see that?

SU subscriber Mark N. is wating for more NFL commentary.  The Jets fell back to earth against a very pedestrian Eagles team yesterday.  Chip Kelly may think he is the smartest guy in the room but last time I looked, his play calling is not a whole lot different from any other team.  I like the Jets’ new coach – guy keeps it cool and has a plan.  But 6-10 still feels about right for them this year.

SU asks: how do the so-called NFL experts feel when their preseason predictions are so wrong after just 3 games?  SI’s choice to win the Super Bowl, Baltimore, is 0-3.  It just goes to show that the average fan is not that far behind the people that do this for a living.

Interesting article in the New York Times yesterday about DraftKings:

They advertise so much today on many sports events. Somehow this is not considered to be gambling.  But an interesting read on how the experts play it and make money.

Finally, this headline on espn.com should make all Knick fans nervous:

Carmelo Anthony offers to be ‘big brother’ to Kristaps Porzingis

Met fans are nervous but SU has seen this before.  Think back to the Yankees in 2000.  They had a big lead and Joe Torre took his foot off the gas pedal.  He started resting guys, putting out the Clay Bellinger line-up and getting his starting pitchers lined up for the playoffs.  A huge lead got down to as little as 1.5 games before they made it to the finish line.  However, the playoffs were tough in that first series against Oakland before they got rolling to win yet another world championship.

Terry Collins has not done that with the Mets but the Matt Harvey innings limit has produced the same situation.  Harvey has become a distraction and going to the 6-man rotation is not helping anyone as of yet.  The offense had been smoking hot but in baseball, those things come and go.  They are now limping home but the Nationals just aren’t good enough to mount a challenge.  They will ease in just fine and be ready  for a spirited first round with the Dodgers.  SU says no way is Washington making a charge here.

The Yankees lost the season series to Toronto 13-6 and that is the difference in the Eastern Division race.  The Blue Jays are a better offensive team plain and simple.  SU says you can’t blame the Texeiria injury – Greg Bird has put up more than comparable offensive numbers and is good in the field as well.  The killer injury for the Yankees was having to shut down Eovoldi and putting Warren in the rotation.  That has left the Yankees one reliever short in the bullpen to pitch the 6th inning and now Girardi has been forced to pitch many of the youngsters in high pressure situations.  And to be honest, none of the youngsters has stepped up and differentiated themselves.  No doubt great experience for future years but they are not ready for prime time as of now.  To cap it off, you had to rely on Andrew Bailey last night in a key situation.  None of the relievers that pitched last night would have even appeared in a game in August.

Wild card games are a crapshoot.  SU would not be overly confident but I suppose it’s better to make that game than not.  As long as Stephen Drew is left off the playoff roster.

The Yankees surprised SU by taking 2 of 3 from the Mets and all of a sudden, there is real nervousness in Flushing.  SU can understand it as there is a recent history of blowing late season leads but come on, 6 game lead with 16 to go?  SU says in the bag and get ready for October.

Finally, Stephen Drew is out of the line up.  How is that possible?  Thank goodness for Dustin Ackley.  It’s about time that Drew has to earn his at bats.  His comments all year about just putting his work in and doing his thing as if on-field performance is irrelevant.  Well, now you can be a 9th inning replacement and we will see if he even makes the post-season roster.  CC is all of a sudden the go-to ace on the staff.  Apparently, the new knee brace lets him pitch inside to righties on the follow through.  Hey, whatever it takes.  On the other hand, SU has been down this road before only to see the Yankees revert to their non-offensive ways.  But with Bird and Ackley, at least there is some new blood in the line up.  Now if they can just find a way to replace Chase Headley…

The NY Giants are just too painful to watch right now.  At best, they are a mediocre team in a terrible division.  What makes it worse is that 9-7 will probably win the division and they have blown 2 winnable games.  No lead will feel safe now for the rest of the season.

Long-time SU subscriber A. Grossman posted this comment today in response to a blog posting from several weeks ago but we were able to track it down for your enjoyment:

“Distractions can lead to disaster.
Let the Met’s have a good portion of the back page. It’s always fresh for the public to see something fresh… not the same ole news. The manager’s job right now is to keep the team focused on the task at hand. This is new for all of them. The Yanks, however have enough veterans and a very conscious manager to keep things just moving along. The Yanks have already matched what Las Vegas gave them back in April in the win column. It appears they will most likely exceed that number by at least 5 which means they need to play 500 ball the rest of the way. Besides the Toronto series I expect the other opposing teams which are out of the race will experiment now with pitchers coming up from Triple A. Unfortunately we will need to keep our pedal to the metal. This coming series against the Bluejays will determine how far down on the pedal we will need to go.

PS   I do not want to stain this reply so no talk about how the NY Giants set an NFL record by opening up a season with two 10 point leads going into the 4th quarter and losing both games. Congrats “Pale” Blue”

Met fans: care to weigh in?  Are you feeling the pressure or can you acknowledge that it’s just the ways of baseball and that even the hottest teams cool for a few games?

First off, SU thanks relatively new subscriber and frequent commenter Mark N. for sharing this article on how the Mets have taken over the back pages in NY as predicted by SU long, long ago.  SU is always happy to share stories that validates its greatness;

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2568675-its-now-the-new-york-mets-city-as-crucial-subway-series-begins

There is definitely a buzz about this series and SU is not feeling confident.  The Yankee offense is running on fumes and the list of “trusted” relievers is ever shrinking.  If the Yankees can take one of the three games that will be a moral victory.

OK, every now and again, SU is asked to put out a trivia question to the masses.  My problem is that with the internet, many people cheat and just look it up.  We all know: THAT IS LAME.  Anyway, it’s a beautiful Friday afternoon in New York and what better way to start the weekend than exercising your brain cells in a productive way.  See if you can get this one the honest way:

There are 7 current Yankee and Met players who have played for both teams.  Can you name them?

SU got 6 of the 7 but I should have gotten them all.  Ready?  Have at it.

For many weeks now, SU has been talking about how the Mets will soon be owning New York given their push to the playoffs and the Eastern Division title.  Many of you have “pooh-poohed” the idea but if you check out this story from today’s New York Times, clearly others agree with SU and they even have statistics to back it up (vs. making things up the old fashioned way).  Take a look at this story by Richard Sandomir:

They are a much more compelling story and exciting team.  The Yankees had a rare exciting moment in the 9th inning last night but those are few and far between.  The Mets have become the must see tv show in New York.

From the “hide your eyes” category, we bring you the NY Giants.  The revelation that Coughlin didn’t know how many timeouts Dallas had left on Sunday night (nor did Eli) and that Eli was telling Jennings to fall down before the goal line is incredibly hard to believe.  The only saving grace is that team is probably headed to a 5-11 record and another loss won’t make a difference.  But it will certainly make John Mara’s job easier at the end of the season to part ways with Tom Coughlin who is a good guy but has probably reached the end of the line here.

SU thoroughly enjoyed the men’s finals last night in Flushing Meadow.  It was like a Davis Cup environment with about 97% of the crowd enthusiastically behind Federer to the point that they were cheering service faults by Djokovic.  I must admit I have never seen that before in any tournament other than Davis Cup ties.  To Djokovic’s credit, he just dealt with it.  Even in the post-match press conference, he didn’t make the crowd into an issue.  He basically said that Federer deserved to have the crowd behind him for his long career and behavior on and off the court, and that Djokovic could only hope to work on getting that type of support later on his career.  SU loves that no excuses mentality.  And the truth is, when he is 34 and competing with the next generation players, the crowd will give him his due.  This guy is just a class act.

Federer is still performing at an incredibly high level at 34 years of age and clearly keeps himself in great shape.  Quite a contrast to someone like Andy Roddick who retired at a relatively early age.  As I have said before, for men’s tennis, this is a golden age with a stable of so many top, top players that we won’t ever see again.

SU read that Djokovic watched the movie “300” the night before the finals which stars Gerard Butler.  Butler was in Djokovic’s friends’ box for the match and they had this brief reaction after the match.  Djokovic is not your robot player and has a lot of personality.  SU got a kick out of this:

http://thebiglead.com/2015/09/14/novak-djokovic-and-gerard-butler-shouted-this-is-sparta-after-the-us-open/

Meanwhile, the Giants tortured its fans with questionable end-of-game clock management and gave new meaning to the term “prevent defense” in the last 90 seconds.  Eli of all people who is always credited with being cerebral just made a dumb play by not taking the sack on 3rd down.  The reality is that it won’t matter long term as their defense is not good but you have to be smarter than that.

SU wishes a happy and healthy new year to all of its Jewish subscribers in the intergalactic base.  Before we get to our NFL predictions for the season, a couple of comments:

• Painful weekend for the Yankee fans although no surprise to SU.  The loss of Teixeria is huge but Eovaldi being shut down is equally painful.  They are running on fumes now and are closer to not making the playoffs than they are to being in first place.  As Joe Girardi likes to say, “it’s not what you want.”
• How bad is Jacoby Ellsbury?  For $22 million a year, he has been terrible and not able to stay on the field (which was his MO even on the Red Sox).
• SU is looking forward to today’s US Open finals.  Very even match up but SU believes somewhat cooler temperatures come this evening will greatly benefit Djokovic who is not as good in the hot weather.  I will stick with my pre-tournament prediction (of course) of Djokovic coming away with the trophy.

OK, here is what will happen in this year’s NFL season.  SU is feeling Green Bay in the NFC.  Even though they have lost Jordy Nelson for the year, Aaron Rodgers is one of those system type QBs and he can slot in other receivers and be just as effective.  He is not reliant on the superstar receiver.  They were that close to beating Seattle last year in the playoffs and SU sees them making it to the Super Bowl this year from the NFC.  Dallas will win the East, and will have a strong playoff run.  But ultimately beating Green Bay in Green Bay in January will be too much to overcome.

In the AFC, New England will be very motivated to repeat given all the Brady nonsense.  But history says it’s very hard to do it again in this day and age, and SU will look elsewhere.  Sports Illustrated is predicting the Baltimore Ravens will win it all but that seems like a long shot to me.  SU will go with Denver as Peyton Manning manages to keep his arm strong enough to be effective in the cold weather in the playoffs.  Green Bay over Denver in the Super Bowl.

Do you agree?  Disagree?  Not care?  Can’t be bothered?  That’s cool.  But weigh in with a prediction if you’d like to and of course, SU will give props to you come February if you are right.