Regression to the Mean

SU says the Yankees are overrated. Their record year-to-date is not reflective of the talent on the roster, and they are in the process of “regressing to the mean.” Stated another way, over a period of time, a team’s record will move closer to where they were expected to be at the start of the season.

SU checked the Yankees’ record against teams who are .500 or better this year. It’s 1 win and 8 losses. Not only is it the worst record in MLB, but it’s also the fewest games against teams with a better than .500 record – by a lot. Now, part of that is explained by the awfulness of the American League so far this season. And yes, the Yankees are comfortably positioned in the Wild Card and it’s way too early in the season. All true. So, some would say, “what are the entitled Yankee fans complaining about?” I get all that.

However, SU has watched its share of games so far and you can see the holes. The bullpen is pretty terrible. Bednar has been a rock but he is now showing cracks. Boone does not have a #2 reliever that he really trusts – you could see that Friday night where he had Bednar pitch the 9th inning with a 4-run lead. As SU has pointed out previously, that is all on Cashman who felt last year’s roster was SO great that there was no need to upgrade.

The lineup has no production after Jazz batting 5th. I mean, Ryan McMahon is batting 6th now. They are rolling out Spencer Jones and Jasson Dominguez but as we all know, Yankee prospects are always overhyped. Jones, in particular, is a free swinger.

And extra inning games? Jeez, somehow teams that go to the plate looking for home runs all the time do not produce in extra innings. And that same issue occurs in the playoffs.

SU will not get overexcited as it is early and the team is projected to win 97 games. But they have not played the better teams as of yet. And yes, Stanton is injured but every team has injuries – look at the Mets who by the way, are only 6 games below .500 now.

The Knicks have been off for over a week since taking out the Sixers in 4 games. SU has major concerns about the long layoff although certainly good for Anunoby who got more rest for his hamstring. Game 1 vs. Cleveland is tomorrow night and you have to expect the Knicks’ long-range shooting to be off. The Cavs can definitely steal one for home court although that may be overrated in this round given the quality of both teams. The Knicks have won 7 in a row in the playoffs – very impressive. They get a break as Detroit was a tougher matchup for them – especially if the refs allowed the grabbing and holding. If nothing else, this should be a more pleasing series to watch offensively. Knicks in 5 games.

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