Is Ohtani 10-year, $700 million contract actually reasonable?

On its face value, a 10-year, $700 million contract for a professional sports athlete does seem to be over the top. I know some of the money is back-loaded to help the Dodgers more effectively recruit and sign other players so they can field a competitive team. Ohtani is 29 years old so by the standards of other recent deals, age 39 is not so bad for the back end of one of these long-term deals.

SU says that if you break it down, you can make the case that $40 million for his hitting for 10 years is along the lines of Aaron Judge’s deal and actually that seems fair then. That leaves $300 million and 10 years for his role as a starting pitcher. Now, will he make it 10 years still pitching? Hard to say but he could transition into a closer role at some point later in his career. Plus he put fans in the seats – especially in LA and certainly on the road.

Ohtani is a freak in that he plays 2 positions very well – at an elite level. Maybe this isn’t so crazy?

6 thoughts on “Is Ohtani 10-year, $700 million contract actually reasonable?”

  1. Check out the plethora of diverse international businesses the Dodger owner has. He is much smarter than any of us so he must have a grander plan for Ohtani’s name and influence to enhance many of those businesses. I just went on yankee site to buy 7 tickets foe June 9th dodgers game, wow! I am hoping I can buy with some deferred money because I will have liquidate some stock holdings to afford them. It’s better on TV anyway

    1. I bought tickets in the 200s that weren’t too bad- $120/ticket isn’t terrible for decent views and a great matchup. Plus if you’re like me and only go to 1-3 games a year it’s good value

  2. Bob, gotta love flexible/variable ticket pricing! I guess those seats are going for more than the KC Royals series in 2024. Good points on the Dodgers’ owner and leveraging Ohtani – especially in the LA market. The Dodgers have an iconic brand and business-wise this makes a lot of sense for them. It did seem like several teams were in the mix which is a positive sign for baseball that others can afford a talent like Ohtani. Baseball just has to get more of these deep pocketed owners so that it’s more of a level playing field – as they say.

  3. Fair point, Evan. In baseball, the playbook has been to tank for 3 – 4 years if you can get away with it, amass top draft picks, draft well and then be competitive for a period of years with a younger team, lower payroll. We have seen the Astros do this, the Orioles and now the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox don’t believe that their fans will accept that and won’t go that route. But as the study shows, spending more is not a formula for success.

  4. Tied up in all of this is the disastrous decision by the Angels ownership and management to “go for it” at the trade deadline. They should have unloaded everyone and amassed prospects for Ron Washington to potentially mentor during his two year contract. There is no way Mike Trout should be on that roster come April 1 (or January 1 for that matter) even if they have to eat some of his contract.
    No word if Magic Johnson asked “Do you want to win?” (through a translator of course) before the contract was signed.

Leave a reply to Bob Rosano Cancel reply