No doubt many SU subscribers are holding off finalizing their NCAA picks until they read SU’s fearless predictions. Help is on the way. Now, full disclosure, SU has a terrible record on the NCAA Tournament. We all know it’s a crapshoot and in a pandemic year with limited fans in Indiana and players sequestered for days and days on end in some random hotel, well, you can only guess what will happen this year.

SU, as per usual, has run thousands of scenarios through the SU statistical model and sophisticated algorithm. We see the following as being important:

1. Momentum: SU is not a believer in how teams play in conference tournaments carrying over into the NCAAs. In fact, I see it as the opposite. Teams reach an emotional high if they win their Conference tournament and then may have a letdown. Also, there is the fatigue factor of playing games on consecutive days – for Ohio State, for example, that is 4 days in a row. Not to be discounted.
2. Injuries: And this year, not just injuries but COVID. Who on your team tests positive? No way to know once things get going. Michigan losing Isiah Livers is huge. Arguably the best player on the team. They are a #1 seed but it’s hard to see them progressing too far without Livers. SU is still picking them to get to the Final Four but that is largely an emotional pick plus I don’t want to root against them. They had a great year, won the Big Ten, and for SU, it’s always about the journey vs. the final, final result. Highly enjoyable season, love the way they play. It’s all gravy now for SU. Georgia Tech is without their best player in their opener vs. Loyola.
3. Shooting in a Football Stadium: The Big Ten held their tournament in Indianapolis and played in the football stadium. That gives them a big advantage as the shooting background – especially with limited fans – is tough in these venues. SU has no idea where games are being played but for teams that rely on outside shooting, this is a factor.
4. Limited fans: The reality is that no team will have much of a home court advantage. Teams playing far from home – even though highly ranked like Gonzaga – may have few fans rooting for them until the Final 4.

SU has Gonzaga, Michigan, Arkansas and Illinois advancing to the Final Four. Arkansas is my surprise upset team. I think Illinois is going to win it all. I don’t like them but they have a bunch of scrappy players that are tough and play hard on defense. Now, have they peaked with the Big Ten Tournament? It’s possible and they are no doubt the pick of a lot of people right now. SU says that they have the attitude – they play pissed off. And their coach is always pissed off. Gonzaga has some great players and this may be their year finally to win it all. I mean they are undefeated but they play an easy schedule for the most part. Illinois over Gonzaga in the finals.

Per usual, the floor is open for you to register your Final Four picks and be recognized for your brilliance in a few weeks. SU has a no harassment policy and will not make fun of anyone’s picks if they are way off as I usually fall into that category. It’s time to man (or woman) up and let everyone know where you fall. Have at it.