OK, the statistics are there: late season momentum apparently has no bearing on playoff success in baseball. History shows that “hot” teams go cold come October and struggling teams all of a sudden show new life and go on a run. Many managers believe in resting their regulars and could care less about home field advantage (see Joe Torre and it’s hard to argue with his success with the Yankees). The reality is that teams can get hot at the right time and adrenaline just takes over as Buck Showalter believes. So, what will happen in 2015?
SU picked the St. Louis Cardinals to win it all back in April and I don’t believe in changing a preseason pick if it is still in play. But here is how things will play out:
American League
The Yankees are running on fumes. They have truly limped into the playoffs. It’s not Joe Girardi’s fault. He is dealing with the hand he was dealt by Brian Cashman and let’s face it – their bullpen is really thin. You have starters that cannot go more than 5-6 innings and that ultimately placed too much pressure on the three relievers who can actually get people out. You combine that with your $160 million bust of a centerfielder in Jacoby Ellsbury and your over-rated 3rd baseman in Chase Headley and you are in trouble. Houston will throw a legitimate left-hander on Tuesday in Keuchel albeit on 3 days rest but the reality is that any left-hander can shut the Yankees down. They have played sub-.500 since the All-Star Game and without Greg Bird, they would have likely missed the playoffs. One and done and if they get behind early, that will do it with little drama. SU is accused of being overly negative about the Yankees but they have earned it. Brian McCann has the worst average in all of baseball since the All-Star Game (.199), Brett Gardner has the 3rd worst and A-Rod is 4th. No doubt Ellsbury is right in there as well. Headley just can’t do anything with RISP. The Astros are playing with house money and their best days are in front of them.
Toronto takes Texas in 4 games, and KC sweeps the Astros. Then, Toronto over KC for the pennant.
National League
SU would have preferred to see the Mets get home field vs. the Dodgers but so be it. I actually think the Dodgers will feel the pressure to win this year and that makes the offense struggle just a little more. This may not be the Mets’ time just yet with their young pitching staff but I think they win the Division Series in 5 games as LA once again comes up short. The Pirates will beat the Cubs in the wild card game (which is a great match-up). Cardinals over the Pirates and then they beat the Mets in the LCS in a rematch of 2006.
Finally, St. Louis over Toronto for the World Series with scarily low ratings outside of St. Louis and Toronto.
Anyone disagree? Anyone feeling like the Yankees have a run in them? Feel free to weigh in and go on the record. If you are right, SU will give the appropriate props come early November and you can bask in the glow of being right.
Sports Update Intergalactic 
OK, A. Grossman jumped the gun with a comment in a previous blog post but he is feeling good about the Yankees: see below:
“Everything Points To A Loss…. but Hold Everything
When you think the Yanks are left for dead they surprise you. When things are going along well…. stagnation takes over.
We are going up against a 20 game winner who has beaten us twice and has not allowed a run to top it off. Of course everything points toward golf season for our boys in pinstripes. I say we break through and win the game 2-1 as we break through with 6 hits.
So sad for our Bronx’s Bomber-ettes… but a win is a win. We then have a day to rest and come back in high gear for the next round. I’m ready for a “round” now. Cheers !!!”
I think it would be more accurate if we stopped talking about the 4 wild card teams as “making the postseason”. 2 of them will make the postseason. The other 2 will achieve the equivalent of losing the NCAA basketball tournament play-in game in Dayton, Ohio the Tuesday before the “real” tournament starts. 6 teams have qualified for the postseason so far, and 4 more will get to play in Game 163 of the regular season to see who moves on.
So, Shep, are you opposed to a team like the Astros celebrating with champagne that they qualified for the Wild Card game? I actually disagree. They have qualified for the post-season playoffs. The NFL wild cards also qualify. True, it’s a play-in game but two thirds of the teams have gone home and they are still playing. I don’t think it has to be a “series” to qualify for a playoff game.
Yanks live to play one more series just because I can’t have my season end on Tuesday. Arrieta moves Cubs up one more series–he is my Cy Young choice even though I love Kershaw, and Greinke had the best season. Kershaw finally come up big and beats Mets. Blue Jays beat Texas, Price is key Royals beat Yankees who can’t hit a lick. Royals beat Toronto as Blue Jays thin beyond Price.Cards beat Chicago with Wainright playing a key role. Kershaw finally beats St Louis. KC beats Dodgers in WS as Kershaw and Greinke are not enough to win it all.
I think your predictions are pretty close to what I was thinking, especially in the NL. I don’t think momentum matters much this year because the pennant races were really a race for seeding not much drama on who was going to be in or not. With that being the case, I think the rested players will show back up again once the playoff games start.
Nobody should feel good about their chances in a one-game wild card. It’s rolling the dice. Anyone can beat anyone for one game and there’s no margin for error.
Just one comment about baseball in general. The Yankees are the only team that I follow very closely. Watching or listening to most games and reading about the rest. This has been a very frustrating season. Lots of injuries. Under-performing stars. Lack of offense. Unreliable middle relief. Inability to score runs. Weakly limping through the final month or two. And this is a team with the leagues 4th best record and one that exceeded all reasonable expectations. More than 80% of the teams endured seasons that were WORSE than this! And the league is thinking about expanding? MLB officials have to stop looking at the TV, Internet and fantasy revenue numbers and take a look at what’s going on between the foul lines. The vast majority of teams are non-competitive and difficult to watch. This is going to catch up with MLB if they don’t find a way to put a more compelling product on the field.
Will Aaron Heillman pitch to Yadier Molina again?
Ha ha ha. Met fans clearly have long, painful memories.