The fans have been clamoring for SU to put out its fearless, NFL playoff predictions.  Well, the time has come.  A few thoughts:

• There is a lot of parity among the playoff contenders this year.  New England is the closest thing to being the clear favorite but you have to figure the loss of Gronkowski will show up at some point.
• As mentioned earlier in the week, many are expecting Green Bay to run the table but SU says not so fast.
• Injuries to quarterbacks have really hurt Oakland and Miami.  SU feels especially badly for the Raiders who had a great season.  I thought they might make a run at the Pats but when you are starting your 3rd string QB and on top of it he comes from Michigan State, well that is a lot to overcome.
• Aside from the Giants- Packers game this weekend, the others are not exactly must see TV.
• Tony Romo is going to have a moment in this year’s  playoffs.

NFC

As predicted earlier in the week, the Giants are going to upset Green Bay 23 – 21 on Sunday.  I do feel that Eli plays his best in the playoffs and his experience and ability to call his own plays in large part makes a difference.  Can they run the table?  Why not?  My preference would be that they avoid Dallas as it’s hard to beat the same team 3 times in one year (although they did beat Washington 3 times in the 1986-87 run).  Atlanta can score at will but they also have a way of blowing close games late.  SU will take the homer pick and have the Giants in the Super Bowl due to the lack of that dominant team in the NFC.

AFC

The money pick is New England but SU is feeling the Steelers.  Ben Roethlisberger has a way of making plays and while their defense is suspect, they can put the points up on the board.

Super Bowl

The Giants over the Steelers in a tight game 21-20.  I will say that the winner of the Giants – Packers game on Sunday will win the Super Bowl.

Feel free to weigh in with your picks.  Put your pride on the line.

SU’s research staff has been running various models of the extended weather forecast for Green Bay for next Sunday.  The good news is the temperature will be in the mid-teens with sunny weather and light winds.  That should more or less eliminate that element from the equation as being a major factor this game.

SU liked that McAdoo played his regulars yesterday both on offense and defense for much of the game.  True: in the NFL, you are rolling the dice but they needed to play a solid game to gain some momentum heading into the playoffs.  Green Bay is the hot team now and everyone’s pick to run the table.   On the other hand, the Giants have had post-season success there in their Super Bowl runs.  Their secondary is as good as its been in recent memory.  They still lack a pass rush without blitzing and that will be a key factor.  Rogers is a magician back there buying time and you just can’t let him sit there scanning the field.  That will be key #1 in determining the outcome for the game.

The second issue is whether the Giants can muster any type of consistent running attack.  Perkins showed some signs yesterday and SU was encouraged.  But the passing game continues to struggle.  OBJ is the obvious target but Green Bay will take that away as much as possible.  They really miss having a tight end who can consistently get open and catch the ball down the field.  That is one piece missing this year and must be a priority for the draft or free agency in the off season.  Eli will have to be on his game and not make the killer turnovers.  He has shown that ability in the post-season in the past even coming off regular season games where he has been sloppy.

And key #3 is the Giants’ defense.  They are really good this year and might be the best unit of any playoff team this year.  You can probably play the field position game to some degree relying on them to hold their ground.

The Green Bay defense does not scare me.  I think the Giants have a decent chance here and will surprise the experts coming away with a 23 – 21 win.  Others care to weigh in?

SU had to share this box score line from last night’s Atlanta – San Antonio game for Tim Hardaway Jr.: 31 minutes off the bench, 11 – 13 from the field including 6-7 from 3-point range for a total of 29 points including a game tying 3-ball to send the game into OT.  Makes me proud.  Too bad he could not co-exist with Melo in NY and they had to move him.  A fun guy to root for and is coming into his own this season.

SU was at last night’s Orange Bowl with long-time subscribers L. Levine, B. Levine and S. Levine, and one of our newest subscribers, J. Silver.  Bowl games are always a crapshoot.  The long layoff between the last regular season game and the bowl date can be as long as 5 – 6 weeks.  College football teams are used to playing every week and not all teams handle the long layoff well.  Michigan looked like it was moving in slow-motion against a faster, more athletic Florida State team.  But SU gives them a lot of credit: despite being unable to generate anything offensively for much of the game, they hung in and made plays in a wild 4th quarter to even take the lead with under 2 minutes left.  They almost had no business even being in the game having given up so many long plays.

SU’s key insights from the evening:

• Bowl games are unique where you have large numbers of fans from both teams intermingled in the stands.  Sure, you have sections allocated to each team but there are many places where opposing fans are crammed in side by side.  No regular season game has that dynamic.  It makes for a special atmosphere (as long as no one is killing each other).
• There is a “fun factor” at the college level.  Sure, fans will tail gate and come into the stadium feeling toasty but the meanness that exists at the NFL level is generally taken down several notches at college games.  SU uses the men’s room test to validate.  When you are on line in the men’s room at a college game, it’s generally a polite gathering where people will chit-chat about the game and no-one is screaming and cursing.  At an NFL game?  Drunken men bellowing and just acting inappropriately making things uncomfortable.  Same thing in the stands.  SU says get a grip: it’s sports and just because you paid a lot for your ticket does not give you the right to act like an a-hole.  Do you agree?
• There has been much written of late about top football prospects taking a pass on playing in the bowl games as they want to be healthy for the draft.  It’s an interesting dilemma.  The school gave you the free ride scholarship and the game is on the schedule.  But SU also gets it from the prospect’s perspective where an injury in what is mostly a meaningless, exhibition type game can cost you millions of dollars.  Last night, Jabrill Peppers of Michigan who will likely declare for the draft as a junior sat out with a strained hamstring.  He was clearly upset after the game and desperately wanted to play.  SU hopes he will return for one more year but given the violence of football and the likelihood of injury, you could blame him for opting out.  Michigan All-American tight end Jake Butt played his final game and suffered an MCL or ACL injury that will likely cost him come draft time.  Just a tough call for these guys.  SU can’t say there is a right or wrong answer on this one.  Thoughts?
• Michigan lost 3 games this year by a total of 5 points.  Jim Harbaugh is a great coach but you can make the case that he is not money in the close games.  While much of the focus is on what happens down the stretch of games, SU maintains that games are won and lost much earlier – on drives in the 1st half that go 3 and out and put more strain on the defense to keep the game in order.  When games come down to one play or a referee’s late call, it’s aggravating but you need to look at the game in total.  SU is very mature (clearly).
• Finally, SU’s career record in Michigan bowl games drops to 2-2.  The list includes Michigan’s OT Sugar Bowl win with Denard Robinson leading the way and the best live sporting event I have ever witnessed which was the 35-31 Capital One Bowl win over Florida with Tim Tebow at QB and Urban Meyer coaching in Lloyd Carr’s final game at Michigan.  What a game.

A happy and healthy new year to the thousands of members of the SU intergalactic subscriber base.  Be safe!

Grayson Allen of Duke has been channeling his inner Christian Laettner by tripping opposing players on the court. He is certainly a solid player who has NBA aspirations but he will first have to overcome his anger management issues.  After his 3rd tripping move in the last year, Coach K today announced an indefinite suspension.  To be honest, despite calls for the suspension from many writers and commentators, I was surprised that the coach actually pulled the trigger.  That’s not been his MO over the years.  He, of course, runs a stellar program but SU has never viewed him as the strict disciplinarian when it comes to these types of incidents.  Actually, no big-time college coach has that reputation.  I suppose we can hope that Allen will learn from this but it’s likely that this is a bigger personality issue with him and won’t be solved by a few games off the court.

Did you see that former NBA coach George Karl has written a tell all book?  I guess that must mean he no longer wants to coach an NBA team.  A few tidbits from espn.com:

“Carmelo was a true conundrum for me in the six years I had him,” Karl wrote in “Furious George,” according to an advance copy obtained by the New York Post. “He was the best offensive player I ever coached. He was also a user of people, addicted to the spotlight and very unhappy when he had to share it.

“He really lit my fuse with his low demand of himself on defense. He had no commitment to the hard, dirty work of stopping the other guy.”  Karl coached Anthony from January 2005 to February 2011, when Anthony had his demand for a trade fulfilled and joined the Knicks. Karl said the trade was “a sweet release for the coach and the team, like popping a blister.” 

The coach was also critical of J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin, comparing those two, along with Anthony, to “the spoiled brats you see in junior golf and junior tennis.”

Karl wrote that Smith, who is now with the Cavaliers, had “a huge sense of entitlement, a distracting posse, his eye always on the next contract and some really unbelievable shot selection.”

SU says: “Shocking!  Who would have suspected these things?”  While much of this was probably true about the younger Carmelo, I have seen enough behavior change this year to think he is mellowing as he sees the finish line of his career.  Not every game, mind you, but here and there.  And I have always liked JR Smith and Kenyon Martin.  SU says that if you are an effective and winning NBA coach, you get guys like this to play for you and play hard.  Karl has a good career record and his Denver roster was very, very good.  He is also headstrong which no doubt didn’t help him with the star players.

Finally, SU caught some of the UConn women’s game last night against Nebraska.  They continue to amaze and impress with how hard they play for 40 minutes with what is basically a 7-player roster.  They are still the most enjoyable game to watch on tv.

There are a lot of things to like about Joakim Noah.  He plays with fire, has a lot of energy and is all about the team.  He is a pass-first type of player which in the NBA puts you in a 1% category of all players.  But on this Knick team as currently configured, he is not a good fit.

The basic problem is that when he is on the court with Porzingis, he plays the 5 and KP is at the 4.  So, on defense, Porzingis has to run all over the court and picks up fouls against smaller and more mobile players.  At the 5, he can help out more as a rim protector and given the lack of big-time post players in the NBA, he rarely has to cover scorers at that position.  The other problem is that on offense, with Melo, KP and Noah on the court, there is just not a lot of ball movement and things get clogged up.

Noah can be traded starting tomorrow (I believe free agents who were signed in the off-season can be moved starting December 15th), and some team will see value in him.  SU says make a move and while you’re at it, maybe some team would like Carmelo.

Last night, Hornacek put in some odd line up of bench players and Porzingis in the 4th quarter and they went on a 19-4 run to take the lead.  Rookie Ron Baker was playing the point and, of course, the ball moved, the players ran the court and KP was the focal point of the offense.  This dude is just so good and so versatile.  Unfortunately, he got into foul trouble as the guards could not keep Bledsoe out of the paint.  Btw, Bledoe is really good.

Anyway, 4 minutes left in the game, and you knew what was going to happen.  You knew it.  Anthony, who was having a bad game, and shot 3 for 15 overall, became the focal point of the offense and the ball stopped moving, they broke out the Mike Woodson offense, and eventually lost in OT.  SU was impressed with Phoenix which down the stretch double-teamed Melo when he got the ball.  I do not understand why other teams don’t do this as he is not a willing passer.  I know, I know – he’s a “great passer.”  Only when he wants to be and he doesn’t want to be one most of the time.

It’s just a loss on a long West Coast road trip.  Rose was out with back spasms again (not a good sign by the way and needs watching) but every night you see how good Porzingis can be and he is entertaining.  Build around him and put a roster together that takes advantage of his skills.  SU sounds like a broken record but the Knicks will never become an elite team until you move Anthony and change the style.  This team has some nice pieces and is fun to watch in stretches. O’Quinn is a nice player off the bench and should get more minutes. Note to Phil Jackson: we are all waiting.

The Jim Harbaugh rumors to the LA Rams just do not make any sense.  He is already paid a lot at Michigan and the reality is that he will have an NFL job waiting for him whenever he wants to go back.  At least a third of coaches get fired every off season.  Harbaugh who is unfiltered told his team that “this talk is coming from our enemies”, and said there are three coaches who are telling recruits that he is leaving to help them land those athletes.  SU is guessing it’s: Michigan State; Ohio State; and Penn State but I could be wrong.  He does make it interesting.  He won’t leave until he wins something like a Big Ten championship.  He hasn’t won anything yet and is coaching the LA Rams the dream job?

As a long-time NY Giants’ fan, SU was excited to see a defensive performance against Dallas that hearkened back to the days of Lawrence Taylor and Harry Carson.  Even with JPP out, this kid from Notre Dame showed his game on national television and all of a sudden, there was actually a pass rush.

Eli did just enough on offense (and I mean just enough) and OBJ finally caught one of those passes and took it to the house.  He dropped another sure TD pass in the 1st half but I guess with him you take the good with the bad.  You have to figure the game a success if he can avoid an unsportsmanlike penalty.  Dak Prescott was exposed a bit and all of a sudden, the Cowboys may have a quarterback controversy with a healthy Tony Romo waiting in the wings.  This was his 2nd game in a row of non-productivity on 3rd down.  The NFL is unforgiving as we all know and he will no doubt be feeling the pressure next Sunday night against Tampa Bay at home this time.

The Giants secondary is really excellent and you have to give Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo a ton of credit for making his defensive unit better with each successive week.  If they can ever develop a consistent running game which you need in the colder weather come playoff time, they could be a real threat.  SU is still not seeing much in that regard but defensively, they should be in most games.  Eli needs more time in the pocket and he is still prone to make the blind pass in the 4th quarter but luckily Dallas dropped the interception possibility.

Combine this with a strong Knicks performance on the West Coast in a win over the Lakers, it was a good NY sports night.  Melo cleared the air with Phil Jackson and had 5 assists in the 1st quarter alone.  Connection there?

OK, so we know that the Yankees needed a closer for next season.  Betances did not look like closer material in September and can’t even throw the ball to any of the bases.  He may never be that “guy” who closes things out which is fine – although not for him as he will miss out on millions of dollars.  Chapman is a stud – no doubt.  But 5 years for a relief pitcher?  You do not see contracts like that anywhere and we know that aside from Mariano, relievers are up and down from year-to-year.

On the other hand, it’s not my money and clearly Hal Steinbrenner likes this guy a lot and assuming the plan is to be contenders starting in 2018, you do need a closer.  But here’s the thing: a couple of years ago, the Red Sox signed some big name free agents and the Yankees panicked and grabbed Ellsbury for 8 years at $22 million a year or something like that.  Three years later, we know that this may be the worst contract in baseball and it’s just a matter of time before the Yankees move him and end up paying 80% of his salary for the duration of the contract.  After the Sales trade, the Chapman signing feels the same way.  Too much money, too many years, panic move.

SU is excited about the Yankees for 2017 and would be really excited if they can move Chase Headley before then.  I know Ellsbury is untradeable but let’s open up 3rd base and slide some prospect in there.  SU cannot endure another year of 10 homeruns and 52 rbis for an everyday player.  Can’t do it.

I had a laugh-out-loud moment a couple of days ago when I read that Rajon Rondo had been suspended for one game for conduct detrimental to the team.  Now, who would have ever thought that could happen?  The Knicks dodged a bullet there by not signing him even though Melo was lobbying for him.  He is the Demarcus Cousins of point guards.  Never happy.

Did you see that Phil Jackson called Melo a ball hog?  Shocking.  SU only caught a few minutes of last night’s Knick game (once a lead hits 80 points I call it a night) but Jeff Van Gundy went off defending Melo’s assist numbers and how they were much higher than Porzingis.  SU note to Van Gundy: Porzingis needs to shoot every time he touches the ball as Carmelo and Rose are going to shoot it every time they get it.  I don’t even want him passing it.  Van Gundy knows better and Anthony is a ball stopper.

SU fave Novak Djokovic has parted ways with his coach, Boris Becker.  He appears to be under the “influence” of some guru these days who espouses tranquility and balance.  Not a good combo if you want to be #1 in the world.  This is not good.

Finally, how abou the UConn women winning easily over Notre Dame on their home court?  This is supposedly a down year for Auriemma while he reloads but he is such a good coach.  What he is accomplishing in this era is very impressive.

So, the rich just got richer in the AL East.  The Red Sox traded a bunch of prospects to get the premier free agent pitcher on the market this winter.  After getting David Price last year, they can add Sale and already have the Cy  Young award winner in Porcello.

SU does not love the long-term, $30 million a year contracts and is fine that the Yankees are not playing in that space.  Cashman has some extra prospects but may be waiting another year when the free agent picks will be a bit more robust.

Are the Red Sox the “beasts of the East?”

SU forgot to mention this about the Giant game yesterday.  It’s possible the game plan by McAdoo was a scientific experiment based on the following principles.  The theory was: is it possible to win an NFL game without any consistent running threat and throwing every single pass to Beckham?  And I do mean every single pass.  This was the plan in the 2nd half for sure.  Over and over again.

And is it necessary to claim pass interference on every play and get all hot and bothered on every tackle?  Plus, and this made SU very unhappy, what was that Instagram posting which must have taken place Saturday night where OBJ and Antonio Brown of the Steelers were together yukking it up somewhere?  Has football now become the David Ortiz big hug sport?  And how would that make OBJ’s teammates on defense feel?  I do not get this – not in a sport that is as violent as the NFL.

Did this bother anyone else?

While SU was clearly hoping to see Michigan sneak into the top 4 of the college football playoffs, the wins by Washington and Clemson made that impossible.  Washington was impressive in its win over Colorado and while Clemson’s defense was exposed by Virginia Tech, they managed to hang on.  Penn State clearly made a case with its Big Ten championship but they only had that one win over Ohio State in an otherwise weak schedule this year and they were not deserving.  SU still says that if the goal was to have the 4 best teams in the playoffs, then Michigan should be in there but you really can’t make that case based on the weekend’s results.  Onward and upward.

SU must make a comment about Cam Newton.  This guy is not always giving it his all.  I have watched him a fair amount this year given that the SU Fantasy Team has Greg Olsen on its roster who really is an All-Pro quality player at tight end.  Newton strikes me as a guy who is not studying the film of what works and doesn’t work but rather heaves the ball downfield and puts it up for grabs time and time again.  Aside from ignoring Olsen, at times it appears that he is disinterested out there.  Clearly, he has a lot of talent but to me, he is high maintenance and high risk.  In a word: over-rated and not deserving of all the attention.

The Yankees signing of Matt Holliday is interesting.  SU likes the 1-year contract in terms of not being obligated longer term for an older player (37).  He is a good clubhouse guy and tries hard.  But he is also a big-time swing and miss type of hitter who likes to pull the ball.  He did well with St. Louis but is coming off an injury plagued season.  Last time I checked, the short wall at Yankee Stadium is in right field.  Shouldn’t the DH be a left-handed hitter?  Are there not better choices out there?  Holliday is the type of hitter who surprises me when he gets a hit a la Brian McCann.  I will be happy to be proven wrong but unless they are going to get another lefty hitter with power, I am not sure about this move.

Finally, I caught a little of last night’s Knick game and DeMarcus Cousins.  Mike Breen said he had a “monster game” but tell me if this is “monster game” worthy: 9 for 30 from the field, 14 – 16 from the foul line, 12 rebounds, 36 points.  You have to figure that’s 30 shot attempts plus another 7 or 8 where he was fouled.  These are Kobe Bryant shot volume type numbers.  He took 10 3-pointers.  Bottom line: this guy is a ball hog and is always unhappy on the court.  A great talent but not someone who makes his teammates better.  Sound familiar?