Do Not Bet Against Patrick Mahomes

You have to give Mahomes his due. This year’s edition of the Kansas City Chiefs lacked Tyreek Hill, and they struggled for much of the year to find receivers who could actually catch the ball. Rashee Rice definitely emerged but even Kelce was dropping passes for much of the season.

The Chiefs did little for much of the first half and while SF dominated, they did not put the game away or build a big enough lead. The Niners also did nothing in the 3rd quarter – literally. Frankly, not the most exciting game but it was close throughout and we did get an overtime which is unusual for a Super Bowl.

Watching Mahomes, one of his greatest assets is knowing when to take off with the ball. He is certainly fast enough and is masterful at picking his spots. Late in the game and in OT, he made some very good decisions to pick up big yards.

A bad night for the Niners special teams with the blocked extra point and the big fumble on the punt which hit the foot of one of their players. It will be interesting to see what happens to SF now as they lost in the Conference championship last year and now the Super Bowl. Few teams are able to keep the pieces together to make it all the way back for 3 straight years. The window may close for them although they certainly have key pieces on offense that are young enough. The salary cap will tell the story in the end.

SU was off as always on its prediction although we had good intentions. Props to long-time subscriber, M. Levine, for putting his score out there.

Comment on sports viewing for Super Bowl Sunday. It is a sign of the rising popularity of women’s sports that FOX had the Iowa-Nebraska college hoops game on to showcase Caitlin Clark, and ESPN had UConn vs. South Carolina. Btw, South Carolina is a powerhouse team – what a collection of All-Americans.

SU is not a Tony Romo fan – not anymore. Just too enamored with himself making predictions that he hopes come true or imploring coaches to go for it on 4th down deep in their own territory. And enough of the talk about “leverage.” What is that exactly?

Time for the Fearless Super Bowl Prediction

It is an annual Super Bowl tradition for SU to inaccurately predict the outcome for the big game. SU is proud to say that I have not read any of the pre-game shows/podcasts/articles but I did watch a A LOT of NFL football this season following our under-performing fantasy football team (note to readers: do not select Stefan Diggs anymore for your fantasy team). It is that time.

Prediction: SF 31 – 27 over the Chiefs.

I do see that many are on the Kansas City bandwagon and it is hard to predict against Patrick Mahomes. Btw, why all the hate towards the Chiefs and Mahomes? And I am not referencing the MAGA crowd and their obsession with Taylor Swift. Is it that Kansas City is always in the Super Bowl and a desire for something different? Too many Travis Kelce commercials?

For SU, Kansas City really struggled for much of the year. True, they are playing a lot better of late, and their defense has been very good down the stretch and in the playoffs. Mahomes has won with far fewer weapons on offense, and is a master of buying extra time in the pocket. I think Christian McCaffrey is a difference maker for the Niners, and will actually be the game’s MVP. He should be fresh with the bye week and see an extra workload both running and receiving.

SF’s defense looked pretty pedestrian last game vs. the Lions, and you have to figure they have made some adjustments there. The Niners have a rookie kicker in Jake Moody, and I don’t think they will rely on him much in this game, i.e., they will go for it on 4th down and short more often than not. Feels like this game will be close throughout and will come down to the final possession which for SU has the Niners stopping Mahomes on the game’s last drive to hold on to a small lead.

As always, the floor is open for anyone to insert their prediction in the Comments section, and be eligible for the SU logoed umbrella and key chain. Your chance to gain the admiration of thousands with your correct prediction!

SU is firmly on the Knicks’ bandwagon this year after an absence spanning many, many years (thank you Isiah Thomas, Stephan Marbury and Carmelo for that). This is a likeable team that plays very hard at both ends, has a true superstar in Jalen Brunson and now has the pieces, if and when healthy, to make a deep run in the playoffs. New York will totally embrace this team in May if they can get to the Conference finals.

Finally, stumbled across this on the ATP Men’s Tennis Tour. Just 5 minutes but amusing: https://twitter.com/atptour/status/1755275229633384956

SU will withhold any Yankees’ commentary as we near the date where pitchers and catchers report. That’s because they have not done anything of late to supplement the pitching staff, and I will not get excited over the 2024 team going into this season with this roster. Can’t do it. 90 – 72 is the likely landing spot and early golf tee times for the players come October.

So, enjoy the game and let’s hear from you!

Comings and Goings

Wow, job security for NFL coaches – be it head coaches or assistants – is not what it used to be. Probably better to rent a house vs. buying. SU is sorry to see Jim Harbaugh move on to the LA Chargers but he has earned the right to do so. He has checked all of the boxes at Michigan in his time there and you can only wish him well as he starts Chapter 2 in the NFL. He was very successful in SF with the Niners but the reality is that he is a high maintenance hire. He knows what he wants and is unafraid to ask and go for it. He wore out his welcome in SF and SU is certain he will do the same with the Chargers in a few years. The key will be if he can deliver some playoff success to LA and justify all that goes with it. SU has the over/under at 4.5 years for Harbaugh with the Chargers.

Meanwhile, Michigan will likely give the head coaching spot to the offensive coordinator, Sherrone Moore who has earned it. SU sees him as a great hire who will be highly effective on the recruiting trail. Good for him and he can hopefully hold on to his assistants – especially Jessie Minter for the defense. I must say that there should be a rule that college coaches who depart for the NFL are not allowed to poach their assistants from the school. Somehow that seems unfair although I suppose the new incoming head coach could choose to gut his staff anyway. Just feels wrong to me.

SU comment on college sports. Players should get paid – I have no issue with that. But the combination of NIL money and the transfer portal has ruined college football and basketball. It is very clear now that the top college football schools have to pony up millions of dollars to compete both for high school recruits and transfers. It is total free agency with no salary cap. Line up the boosters, give out the SUVs, bags of money. This is a good thing? As a fan, the disruption in rosters – especially for college hoops – with all of the transfers makes me less interested in watching. Part of the fun was rooting for your team’s freshmen to see how they develop over time. No more. SU is not loving this.

Djokovic went down in Australia to Sinner in a beatdown. He looked like an MLB starting pitcher who just did not have it – at all. Not to take anything away from Sinner who is a great, rising player but Djokovic had nothing. I cannot recall another time that he played that badly. Is it age catching up? Maybe but SU feels it’s a blip for him and something that will get his attention to not repeat it. Sinner is well coached and continues to add to his game. He is pure power but can now hit the topspin angle shots to move the opponent off the court. Tennis fans will be treated to the Alcaraz – Sinner rivalry for years to come. Fun to watch and both are good guys which SU appreciates.

Yankee fans remain in a holding pattern. This roster is a 90-win team. Are you excited?

At least NY fans have the Knicks who play hard every night and are a true team. They do need one more scorer to provide some cushion in the event of injury but they will contend in the East come April. And yes, NY fans have the Rangers! I know someone would have pointed that out to me.

Settling for Less

So, the Yankees big move on the pitching front is to sign Marcus Stroman to a 2-year deal. He is the consummate .500 pitcher who is not a great clubhouse guy. And he is always injured. Otherwise, checks all of the boxes.

As a Yankee fan, SU does not see great things for the 2024 campaign – not with this rotation and not with a bullpen that is also in a rebuild. You can say the offense will bounce back with the trade for Soto and that may be true but they will need to be an offensive juggernaut this season to offset a really bad starting rotation. Cole was almost perfect in 2023 – it’s not fair to expect that level in 2024 although he will be very good. We still do not know if Rodon can pitch in New York, Clarke Schmidt may have reached his level which is OK, and Cortes is often hurt. Consider that starters are always getting hurt: is there any depth in the minor leagues? Or did they trade away 3 Major League starters in the Soto deal (the answer is yes).

Clearly, Cashman fully expected to land Yamamoto. A huge loss – just as not signing Ohtani originally was a huge loss several years ago. It’s become clear now that the Yankees can no longer outbid other teams for the top free agents, and that they will have to build talent through the farm system. SU likes that approach but they used many of the bargaining chips in the mid-season trades the last 2 seasons that landed Joey Gallo, Frankie Montas and other under-performers. 

The one guy who has value and is on the younger side is Gleyber Torres, and the Yankees have depth in the infield. Surely, some team has a younger pitcher and needs a solid 2nd baseman with power.

SU will be thrilled to be surprised and see Marcus Stroman win 15 games, pitch the full season and turn into a good guy. Just not feeling it, and not feeling like 2024 will be a season to remember. For older Yankee fans, it is starting to feel like the mid-late 1980s with a mis-matched team of stars and not being good enough to compete for a championship with a high payroll, i.e., the Don Mattingly era.

Prove me wrong.

Victors Valiant

Michigan put a bow on the season with a hard-fought win over Washington last night. As predicted by many, it came down to Michigan’s defense vs. the Washington high-powered offense, and the defense clearly won out.

Michigan jumped out early and then relied on its defense to hold the line in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. SU has seen games like this before this season – the Maryland game certainly comes to mind. Get the big, early lead and then rein in the offense by running it over and over again. As a fan, it is very frustrating (many on X would agree who were Xing last night about this. Btw, how stupid is the name X? Not a winning move). Washington loaded the box and dared Michigan to throw. JJ McCarthy was a bit jumpy in the pocket and seemed intent to always throw to the first option even though he had time in the pocket. After opening up the offense against Alabama, the game plan last night was overly conservative once they had the lead. I mean, at least run JJ McCarthy on the zone read plays as Washington was packing it in for the runs up the middle.

Penix had a few shots for big plays but he took a beating. He must have had bruised ribs by the end of the game as he was turning away after every throw to protect his mid-section. Washington is a fun team to watch with an imaginative offense and NFL-quality receivers. They were a deserving finalist but Michigan makes great defensive adjustments at half time every game, and last night was no exception. They held them to 3 points in the 2nd half which is pretty amazing for that offense.

SU will enjoy this one. The NCAA will do its NCAA things next season in the way of penalties, etc. Btw, keep an eye on the Catapult software scandal where some some college team or teams stole information from other teams. Both Alabama and Michigan were victims of this one which goes back a couple of years. 

Harbaugh may jump to the NFL now feeling he has restored the Michigan program and it’s the right time to fulfill his NFL dreams. He certainly has the right to do that. If he leaves, it won’t be that Michigan’s contract offer was not big enough ($12 million a year for 10 years or something like that?). For SU, it feels like the NFL style of play has passed him by and he is also very high maintenance so owners should beware. SU believes the smart move in the NFL these days is to hire the younger coordinators but for sure, some owners will be tempted to go after guys like Harbaugh, Belichick, etc. SU also feels that JJ McCarthy could certainly use another year of college ball as he is not as dominant as some of the other quarterbacks coming out this year. This is a QB rich draft and he will be better positioned next season.

If Harbaugh does leave, SU believes Michigan would elevate Sherrone Moore to head coach, and even though he might not be 100% ready, he can grow into the job. And I know high school kids will want to play for him. Of course, next year’s schedule features games with preseason top-10 ranked teams: Ohio State; Oregon; Washington; and Texas. For SU, I would much prefer to see those games against high quality teams vs. the Arkansas States.

Great season for the Michigan fans (and it will help to cover up for a bad basketball team this year). Go Blue!

Gotta Love College Football

A Happy New Year to the SU intergalactic subscriber base!

SU knows that the NFL is the pre-eminent professional sports league, and by far the most popular of the pro sports leagues in the US. But for SU, when it comes to what are really fun and memorable games, you cannot beat college football. 

Yesterday (and early this morning up to 1 am for those of you keeping score at home), we were treated to 2 epic games. Note to ESPN: these are 4-hour games. Maybe start the Rose Bowl an hour earlier? Michigan – Alabama was a true slugfest with the Big Ten, for a change, playing a physical game on defense against a powerhouse SEC team. Michigan’s defense won the game for them, the offense held its own and special teams tried to give it away. SU must admit that extra points were incredibly stressful the entire 2nd half and the punts? Whoa.

At the end of regulation, Harbaugh put in his sure hands punt returner after a huge muffed punt in the 1st half led to an Alabama touchdown. But he decided trying to catch it inside the 5-yard line was a good idea at that point. Crazy. But that is why SU loves college football. It’s the dumb plays made by youngsters on the big stage. These are not professionals and they are doing their best under pressure. It makes it unpredictable and so much fun. Now, truth be told, it was more “fun” that Jake Thaw somehow recovered his muff on the 1-yard line vs. losing the game in the last minute.

A few comments on the Rose Bowl:

  1. The game was played on grass and no doubt there is some moisture on the grass late in the afternoon and early evening in Pasadena. The centers and long snappers had some issues and SU believes the grass was a factor. In overtime, there is no way that Michigan would have attempted a field goal under any circumstances. It would have been touchdown or bust.
  2. Alabama made some good adjustments at half time and pretty much stopped throwing the ball down the field in the 2nd half. It was all quarterback runs and short passes from there on out. SU says Jalen Milroe is overrated as a passer and that was exposed last night. He is a dynamic runner though and on that 4th down play in OT, you knew he was going to keep it. You win or lose with your best player. Luckily, Michigan was thinking that way as well.
  3. SU was happy that Michigan, finally, unveiled some more creative plays on offense vs. what they show in the regular season. Their execution on some was not there but credit them for trying. Putting players in motion on most plays also helped to throw off Alabama in the secondary as they struggled to figure out who to cover.
  4. There is satisfaction in watching Nick Saban get pissed off on the sideline.
  5. In a sport where technology is available, SU has to laugh at how referees spot the ball on the field after a play. It is so haphazard. On one play, the ref just dropped the ball on the ground while signaling for a timeout as it rolled away several yards. He went over, picked it up and just put it down in the vicinity of where it was. And ruling where the runner goes out of bounds on the sideline? It’s plus/minus one yard on many plays.
  6. The refs let ’em play last night. Very few penalties and that was enjoyable. Sure, they missed a few plays but it was nice not see so many flags thrown.

The Sugar Bowl game was wild. Washington has an amazing offense and an amazingly bad pass defense. They were hurt late in the game when their top running back was hurt on a 3rd down run that would have run the clock down to about 15 seconds. That allowed Texas to mount one more wild drive to the red zone. If the running back did not get hurt, that does not happen. Bad luck for them and now he is likely out for the championship game.

A Michigan – Washington finals is actually an all-Big Ten final going forward. And these two teams play each other in Seattle later this year. Good stuff. While the SEC is still the best conference, the additions of UCLA, USC, Oregon and Washington to the Blue Bloods of Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State put these two conferences on an even plane now I think.

Next Monday will be Michigan’s defense trying to stop Washington’s high flying offense. They failed miserably last season in a very similar situation vs. TCU. Very similar. But you have to figure they learned some things from that experience.

For Michigan, still unclear if Harbaugh returns next season as there will be NFL slots opening up, and he may still have the itch. JJ McCarthy may also opt out for the draft although next year’s draft has fewer top QBs in it, and he should probably stay one more year. He has his moments but also has his other moments.

Finally, a year from now, we will only be in the quarterfinals of the college football playoffs. The finals are slated for January 20th. But the 12-team format will be great. Perhaps players will actually opt in to play vs. sitting the bowl games out? Btw, given the number of injuries in football, SU has no issues with that.

Yamamoto Makes His Decision

Yankee fans were just assuming that Yamamoto was going to end up in pinstripes. After all, this is New York, championship history, Hideki Matsui serving as ambassador, Judge and Cole to lure him in. Now, it turns out that Hal capped the Yankees’ bid at $300 million as he did not want to go higher than Cole’s deal and well, enough is enough. Reports are that Steve Cohen actually matched the Dodgers’ offer value ($325 million over 12 years) that included the Dodgers posting a $50 million payment to the Japanese team. Yamamoto gets a $50 million sign-on bonus.

SU is not mad at Steinbrenner not getting him. The Yankees really wanted him and made a competitive offer. SU has read about Yamamoto’s training regimen, focus on flexibility, throwing all the time, etc. and maybe he is truly a freak and will never have arm issues. Ever. But it sure seems like every pitcher that throws 99 mph has arm issues at some point and a 12-year deal may not end well.

For the Yankees, it’s a gut punch for sure. They are at a crossroads and they are not strong in their starting pitching. Carlos Rodon needs to be good and it certainly is not clear that he is. What’s a team to do? SU says here is a novel idea: grow your own. Stop relying on the free agent market. There are enough deep pocket owners now that the Yankees (or Mets) certainly cannot expect to outbid other teams for any free agent. The Giants, Phillies, Blue Jays and probably others were all in the mix here. It’s actually good for baseball that there are owners out there who can compete for the big contracts.

SU’s expectations for the Yankees in 2024 are modest at best in the competitive AL East. Soto is a nice addition but they traded some of their top pitching prospects over the past year, and their starters are never healthy (see Cortes, Rodon). No doubt, there is a plan B which will involve overpaying for Jordan Montgomery but look for some quick signings coming.

The Dodgers will have all the pressure on them in 2024, and they always seem to have the best regular season record and then fall short in the playoffs. Something to root for in 2024 as they are the new Evil Empire.

Should Hal have gone higher on his contract offer? Do the Mets have an image problem? The board is open.

Is Ohtani 10-year, $700 million contract actually reasonable?

On its face value, a 10-year, $700 million contract for a professional sports athlete does seem to be over the top. I know some of the money is back-loaded to help the Dodgers more effectively recruit and sign other players so they can field a competitive team. Ohtani is 29 years old so by the standards of other recent deals, age 39 is not so bad for the back end of one of these long-term deals.

SU says that if you break it down, you can make the case that $40 million for his hitting for 10 years is along the lines of Aaron Judge’s deal and actually that seems fair then. That leaves $300 million and 10 years for his role as a starting pitcher. Now, will he make it 10 years still pitching? Hard to say but he could transition into a closer role at some point later in his career. Plus he put fans in the seats – especially in LA and certainly on the road.

Ohtani is a freak in that he plays 2 positions very well – at an elite level. Maybe this isn’t so crazy?

“He’s a Transformational Bat”

Those were the words of Brian Cashman a couple of days ago talking about Juan Soto and what he could mean to the Yankees’ lineup. SU says: where have we heard that before? Ahhhhhh yes, it was Giancarlo Stanton who was a “generational talent.”

SU is trying to get excited about the Yankees’ trade for Juan Soto for many of the guys who actually started games for the Yankees in the 2023 season and were pretty good at it plus their top pitching prospect, Thorpe. I get it: the offense sucked in 2023 and they had to do something. They traded for Verdugo who SU does not like (I mean a Red Sox?) and who strikes me as a Josh Donaldson type personality in the clubhouse (not a good thing). In reading up on Soto, apparently he is a sub-par outfielder and a sub-par baserunner. He is left-handed though (Yay!) and this lineup is desperate for that.

Judge will now be the every day centerfielder at least until Jasson Dominguez is healthy and shows he can claim that spot in the outfield. No doubt, there are now too many outfielders but you know at least one will always be on the Injured List in 2024.

The word is that of course, the Yankees will sign Soto long-term even though Scott Boras is his agent and that Soto turned down a $440 million contract a couple of years ago. You have to figure the asking price will be $500 million+ for Soto covering until he is 45 years old. And if the Yankees reel in Yamamoto, who is expected to get $300 million, SU does not see how the math works for Soto long-term. SU also predicts today that Steve Cohen at the Mets will outbid Hal for Soto in free agency next off-season just because he can.

So, basically, it’s 2024 World Championship or bust. SU checked the roster and it looks like the Yankees are counting on Cortes to rebound (could be) and Rodon to pitch like his baseball card (can he really pitch in New York?). It feels like they are banking on Yamamoto or perhaps will sign Jordan Montgomery.

SU gives Cashman and Hal credit for doing something. As I have said in the past, I prefer the Atlanta Braves’ approach of signing your top prospects at an early age for multiple years but truth be told, we have not yet seen prospects who are deserving. Pereria and Peraza need to show more. Boone has already said LeMahieu is the starting 3rd baseman but SU says Peraza can stake his claim to that spot as DJ is on the downside of his career at this point. Pereria is the odd man out right now.

2023 took a lot of out SU with the Yankees. I stopped caring. Why am I still not excited for 2024 with the addition of Soto? Was this a good trade? I think it was a fair trade to be honest and I will root for Michael King to do well – he’s a good guy and very talented.

What do you all think?

Get your peanuts!