“It’s Not What You Want”

Long-time Yankee manager, Joe Girardi, had this saying when things headed south for the Yankees: “It’s not what you want.”  SU says that Aaron Boone may want to try this out given how the season has started.  Of course, it’s a long season and 4-4 is better than 1-7 for example.  But SU was on this way back during the winter after the Stanton signing.  Here are the troubling signs for this team:

  • The line-up is way, way too right-handed.  It seems like every starter these days is a righty and the Yankee hitters don’t hit right-handed pitching well.  Stanton stands so far off the plate and is only looking to hit to right field.  Sanchez looks lost – every ball is a grounder to shortstop or 3rd base.  I know Hicks and Bird are hurt and they will add some pop from the left side when they return and assuming they can stay on the field.  But if you watch Tyler Austin, Andujar, Stanton, Sanchez, Judge, etc., you just don’t feel they will get a hit.
  • Do you remember Brian McCann?  He was another guy that SU felt would never get a hit when he came to the plate.  A left-handed version of Todd Frazier.  The Yankee line-up has a lot of these hitters.  Tyler Wade?  Cashman loves him but I continue to say he is over-matched and over-powered at the plate.  Boone prefers to not play Torreyes and has limited his at bats.
  • Last night, CC went out after 4 innings with a sore hip and the Yankees apparently don’t have a long man in the bullpen.  Kahnle threw 48 pitches over 2 innings.  This was Tanyon Sturtz and Scott Proctor like with Joe Torre using them so much their careers were cut short.  Girardi would never have left a reliever in for that many pitches.  Let’s monitor his next few outings to see if he develops arm or shoulder issues.
  • SU does not understand the logic of batting Judge and Stanton back to back.  You have to put Didi in between as he is the only guy really hitting so far of the big boppers.
  • And finally, the games are boring.  SU multi-tasked through last night’s game including a nap at some point.  They can’t score without the benefit of the home run.  Judge and Stanton had bloop singles to knock in runs but increasingly, you get the feeling that this is an all or nothing line up.  They may still get to 100 wins if the bullpen straightens itself out but it’s not the right recipe for the post-season.  I know Stanton is signed through 2027 and I know as some have said on this blog that he is a “generational player” but for SU, he is still too much of an all or nothing hitter.

Next week, they go to Boston for 3 games in the cold weather.  Again, it’s April – no need to panic.  But Drury is on the DL as of this morning with migraines, CC is on the DL with the hip, Sanchez left last night’s game with cramps and Chapman was examined by the trainer last night for loss of velocity.  Stanton will be in left field; better hope he doesn’t crash into the Green Monster as he is no doubt not familiar with playing there.

It’s not what you want…

The Better Team Won

SU tips its cap to Villanova.  They are a very good team with strong players up and down the roster.  Michigan would have had to play its best game last night to win and they did not come close on the offensive end.  In SU’s view, they were a bit gassed – certainly Moe Wagner was.  Coming from behind to beat Loyola took a lot of effort and Beilein has not subbed as much in the NCAAs as he did in the regular season.

Villanova was able to crash the boards time and again for 2nd shots that were killers.  DiVincenzo was a monster and clearly the difference in the game.  Michigan actually held most of their other players in check but this guy went off.  SU note to NBA scouts: buyer beware on Jalen Brunson.  He’s a nice player but the neck snaps that he uses to get literally every foul call from the refs will not fly in the NBA.  SU suspects he was doing that even in the celebration last night.

SU has no regrets.  As I have said many times, it’s a journey.  You start the season with hope and enjoy the ride to see how the team evolves, progresses, rebounds from tough losses, etc.  The reality in the NCAAs is that Michigan played one good offensive game out of 6 and still made it to the finals.  Other than the win over Texas A&M, they did not shoot well.  They have a great freshman class coming in, some guys leave or graduate, and you start over.  Tom Izzo will get his new class of one and dones up in Michigan State but Beilein will continue to do his thing the right way.  SU will take that.

A thing to note and follow in Yankee Land.  It’s been very subtle so far and the broadcasters are part of this.  It’s the “trash Joe Girardi” campaign.  Listen for it.  For example, Tyler Wade.  “The Yankees felt he wasn’t given the chance last year to get regular at bats.”  Translation: “Girardi didn’t play him enough over the objections of Cashman.”  SU says Wade was totally over-matched last year and so far this year aside from one hit, he is still over-matched.  Another example: Dellen Betances.  Girardi didn’t coddle him enough last year and he lost his form and confidence.  Well, so far, it seems like 2017.  They will quietly blame Girardi for not communicating with Betances last year.

SU was a Girardi supporter.  He managed with his binder but what’s wrong with that?  He was masterful with the relievers and he generally was good taking starters out at the right time.  Boone is a different guy.  He says he doesn’t care if a hitter hit 2 home runs the day before (see Tyler Austin Saturday).  He will sit him the next game if it’s not a good match up.  It’s something to watch.  If you listened to him on ESPN, he is not a brainiac.  We will see if communication skills is what rules the day over a long season.

Aaron Boone: All the Wrong Moves

Great 2nd guess by David Cone on today’s Yankee broadcast.  David Robertson pitching in the bottom of the 8th inning.  Second and third, 2 outs and Yankees ahead 4-3.  Boone elects to walk Donaldson to pitch to Smoak with the bases loaded who had homered his last at bat.  Cone says right away: bad move; “I don’t like it.”  “It’s a mistake to make the pitcher have to throw with the bases loaded.”

Boom: grand slam on a 3-2 pitch.

Welcome to managing in New York.  But of course, he will communicate well to Robertson when he gets to the dugout and will no doubt give him a big hug.  Somewhere Joe Girardi is smiling.

SU knows it’s early but the Yankees’ dominant right-handed line up pounded out 4 hits through 8 innings.  It’s a long season.

One More Thing

SU forgot to mention the UConn women’s game Friday night.  Very interesting match up vs. Notre Dame who had lost 4 players to ACL injuries during the season.  It was nip and tuck and UConn lost on a buzzer beater in the semis for the 2nd year in a row.  A few comments:

  • Geno Auriemma, for all his greatness, is only 11-7 in NCAA semifinal games.  SU says this shows just how hard it is to get there and make it through to the finals.  That is still a great record.  But no guarantees.
  • Auriemma is committed to his seniors and upper classmen players.  He really only goes 6 players deep.  On Friday night, Samuelson had 4 fouls for the last 7-8 minutes of the game and Notre Dame really exploited that.  She basically stopped playing defense and escorted her man to the basket on a series of drives to avoid getting that 5th foul.  If this were a men’s NCAA tournament game, that player is on the bench for a few minutes.  SU says that was a tactical mistake.  Sure, you want her outside shooting and scoring (for which she got none in those minutes) but you need to substitute offense-defense or just sit her for a few minutes.  That was a key to the game.
  • While SU loves to watch UConn, it’s actually good for the women’s game that they lose once in a while.  They had a great team this year but in a close game, they blinked.  Notre Dame played zone for much of the game and UConn did not really respond well to that.  That was surprising.  They struggled to run their offense.

And Then There were Two…

You have to say this: Michigan finds a way.  They have played one complete game in the NCAAs – against Texas A&M.  The rest of the games have been offensive struggles with their defense being consistently tough throughout.  Last night’s first half will not go into the time capsule – that’s for sure.  Moe Wagner kept them in the game along with Matthews.  SU says Jordan Poole must get more minutes – he is the offensive spark – and that whatever you lose on defense is worth it.  He was the key in the 2nd half and scored on two quick driving lay-ups to provide some offensive firepower.  Against a team like Loyola that switches on everything, you need to drive the ball to the basket.  As we all know, not every player is good at that.  He can efficiently do it.  SU felt that if they could just get the lead in the 2nd half, Loyola would fold.  They are a scrappy team with no size that had a terrific run.  Great story.  So, where will the Loyola coach be next year?  No doubt he is destined for something bigger.

Villanova is a stud team and a heavy favorite tomorrow night.  No weaknesses.  However, SU says that they played their best game last night blowing out Kansas.  Rained down 3s from all over.  SU says sometimes teams fall in love with the 3-ball and if you are off, then it’s a different game.  Maybe, just maybe, that will be the case tomorrow night.  Michigan should be loose – few will expect them to win.  I feel this may be a closer game than one would expect.  Or not…  SU would have much preferred facing Kansas.

So, what does a $200 million payroll get you?  If you are the Yankees, you are down to 3 healthy outfielders for the next week with Judge in centerfield.  Billy McKinny ran into the wall yesterday and is now on the DL and Aaron Hicks is already there after pulling something on opening day.  Ellsbury does not come off the DL until next weekend from his latest paper cut injury – for $22 million a year, the dude cannot stay healthy.  SU does not like playing Judge and Stanton next to each other in the outfield – that is a collision waiting to happen and nothing good will come from that.  Adam Warren took a line drive off his ankle yesterday.  Andujar was called up – this is the chance for the youngsters to shine and take advantage of these opportunities.  The issue is that with the 40-man roster, you can’t just call up some random minor league player without releasing someone from the 40-man roster who can then be picked up by an team.  SU says Cashman will be conservative and hope for rain every day this week.

Todd Frazier with a 2-run double for the Mets – could he be the signing of the year?  SU says no.  Settle down.  The Mets are off to a quick 2-0 start and their starters are pitching to form.  That is the key for them plus avoiding injury.

Trey Burke with 18 points and 15 assists last night – 1 turnover.  How is he not your starting point guard next season?

Novak Djokovic has split with Andre Agassi. Ominous sign for his comeback.  He may be officially done both physically with the elbow and mentally.  Unless you are Roger Federer, you have to appreciate the moment because you can’t guarantee your health (see David Wright).

Hope Springs Eternal

OK, we are a full one game into the 2018 MLB season.  As we live in the era of analytics and Artificial Intelligence, SU has done the math on what to expect now going forward:

  • The Mets, who always seem to win on opening day, are projected to go 162-0, and Todd Frazier will hit .250 and score 162 runs.  Great news for the Mets.
  • On the Yankees side, Giancarlo Stanton is clearly not worrying about making the transition to the American League and had an impressive debut.  SU has run the numbers and he is projected to hit 324 home runs this season – a number which even Barry Bonds would be proud of and who no doubt will wonder if he should have used a more potent formula while he was playing.

Of course, as we know, it’s a looooonnnnngggg season and no reason to get ahead of ourselves.  We have also seen players have torrid Aprils and then rapidly come back down to earth (see Graig Nettles for the Yankees back in the day).  SU read that the Yankees had not won on opening day since 2011 during the Joe Girardi era.  SU says the common denominator there was pitching either CC or Tanaka in those games who both usually were terrible to start the season.

John Sterling had a chance to try out his Stanton home run call on radio and as expected, no one knows what he’s talking about as it seems to relate to some Italian opera singer or something or other.  Look for him to make the call to the bullpen to bring in a new home run call before the end of April.

SU is ready for the Final Four for both the men and the women this weekend.  I do feel Michigan will benefit from playing a team that looks like them while Villanova’s defense will be the difference in a win over Kansas.  The women’s match-ups are very good – these are the 4 best teams and UConn is not a shoe-in here which is good for the game.

Finally, for the 7 people who watch the Tennis Channel, there is a new American on the scene in the women’s game – Danielle Collins – who learned to play on public courts and went to college 4 years at UVa.  She is 24 (old by tennis standards), has a big game and appears to have her head on straight as she has not been playing with a large entourage for many years and apparently doesn’t even have a clothing contract as of yet if you see how she’s dressed on the court.  Someone to keep an eye on this year.

Wanted: First Baseman with Healthy Feet

Greg Bird is starting to remind Yankee fans of Nick Johnson.  Left-handed first baseman with a sweet swing for Yankee Stadium but who cannot stay healthy long enough to be on the field.  The news yesterday that he would be out 6-8 weeks with a broken bone spur is, I suppose, better than being out all year, but on the other hand, the start of what he went through in 2017.  He is still young but you wonder at what point do the Yankees just decide to go in a different direction?  SU is disappointed as he is my favorite Yankee so far this season but I will adapt.  The hope is that they have properly diagnosed the problem (based on last season, not a sure thing by any means).  Clearly, this line up can absorb the blow but they are very right-handed now.

So, Knick fans, Trey Burke has started the last 2 games.  And last night he took advantage of that opportunity to score 42 points and dish out 12 assists – 35 points coming in the 2nd half and OT.  Jeff Hornacek will get credit for finally deciding to start him but please – SU was imploring management to bring him up to the parent team back in November and to play him once he was here.  Coaches who have a feel for the game and the players can figure this out much, much sooner.  SU has nothing against Hornacek – seems like a nice guy – but to wait this long to start him was clearly ridiculous.  On any other team, you might think that this is your starter for next season.  But with the Knicks, of course, you cannot think that way.  No-one would even be surprised to see them trade Burke for Carmelo Anthony during the off season (just kidding – won’t work with the salary cap!).  SU says he is your starting point guard now.  He is under-sized but there is so much pick and roll in the NBA and switching, it’s just not that much of a factor.  He can score, create his own shot and penetrate.  Please: do the right thing.

But the big news of the day is that John Sterling, the 80-year old radio voice of the Yankees, got cataract surgery during the off season and apparently can see again.  This is huge for the home run calls that are often actually fly balls to short center field.  Fans will, hopefully, no longer have to listen to the crowd noise to know what is going on during the game.  As important as the trade for Giancarlo Stanton.

Final Four and MLB Predictions

Well, we saw the big boys play yesterday in a great game between Duke and Kansas.  It was only fitting that Grayson Allen’s shot at the end of regulation roll off the rim.  He should not be allowed to be a hero.  Allen makes Christian Laettner look like a choir boy with all of his dirty plays over the years.  If you are a “clean living” player, that shot drops through the net.  When you have a career full of trips and hip checks, it drops out.  Good riddance to him.

Watch out for Marvin Bagley III in the NBA.  He will be a force and a high pick in this year’s draft.  Loyola has had a great run but SU likes the match-up with Michigan in the first Final Four game Saturday.  They play very similarly, are not big and don’t have the tall players with giant wing spans that look to disrupt the offensive flow.  They can certainly beat Michigan if they shoot well and whoever makes shots from 3-point land will win this game.  SU is hopeful that Michigan’s assistant coach who is in charge of the defense and came from Illinois State is familiar with Loyola as they were in the same conference.  Michigan will be very challenged against either Villanova or Kansas and I will stick with my prediction of Villanova winning it all.

Leonard Hamilton of Florida State had a brain freeze at the end of that game by not fouling with 11 seconds left and only down 4 to a Michigan team that is challenged from the foul line.  After watching Kansas State foul in the last minute down 15 points, you wonder what he was thinking?  His post-game interview was cringe worthy as he had no clue what the sideline reporter was even asking him about.  SU did see that he put out a statement yesterday trying to explain himself and apologizing for any dis-respect he may have shown to her.  That was a class move by him.  She asked the right questions and it’s the coach’s job to answer as best he can.  Clearly, they should have fouled there and extended the game.

Baseball predictions are coming out for 2018.  Sports Illustrated has the Nationals beating the Yankees in the World Series and has the Mets as a wild card team.  Tyler Kepner in the New York Times likes the Astros to repeat (over the Cubs in the Series) but has the Orioles as a wild card team.  No team has repeated since the 2000 Yankees but SU says the Astros are a good bet to do so this year.  The Nationals always find a way to choke in the playoffs – they are actually very creative in that regard.

SU sees it this way:

American League

The Yankees, Indians and Astros win their divisions, with the Red Sox and Angels as wild cards.  I don’t see the Twins repeating as wild cards this year – hard to do for low budget teams.  Astros come out of the AL.

National League

Washington, Cubs and Dodgers take the divisions with the Cardinals and Mets as wild cards (assuming the Mets can keep their starters on the field which as we know is a big if).  Cubs win the NL and then lose to Houston in the World Series.

SU never likes to make predictions but the fans demand it.  Let’s hear from the experts in the SU intergalactic subscriber base.  It’s your chance to look very smart come late October as we can refer back to your incredibly insightful prognostications.

Greg Bird – Here we go again

Announcement from the Yankees this afternoon:

“The Yankees announced that Greg Bird had an initial exam with a specialist in Tampa and will undergo “further diagnostic tests”; will include a CT scan and an MRI in his right foot. Bird was scratched from a split-squad game today due to a sore right foot and was then examined by a doctor. The 25-year-old first baseman had surgery to remove a bone from his troublesome right ankle last year.”

Unreal.  He has been terrible this spring – similar to the first couple of months last year.  Same foot that was operated on.  SU says not good.

Uh Oh: Yankees on Cover of SI

Yankee fans cannot be happy this week as Judge and Stanton are on the cover of SI.  Now, the Sports Illustrated jinx may be all myth but it’s been around a long, long time.  SU is not happy and would prefer to temper the expectations.  A few thoughts today on the eve of the Elite 8 games in the NCAAs and of course, the Stormy Daniels interview on 60 Minutes:

  • SU was reading today’s New York Times and saw that Aaron Boone is seriously considering batting Judge lead-off in certain games.  While I am a believer in all of the sabermetrics and analytics data, I am not sure if I see the logic of this move.  True, he has a high on base percentage and you do want to give your best hitters the most at bats so I get that part of it.  Also, after the first inning, in the AL, with a circular line up, the lead-off hitter is no longer what it is in the 1st inning.  I just envision Judge striking out on a low and away slider to lead off these games.    But I am prepared to be proven wrong.
  • Didi Gregorius should be the hitter placed in the middle of Judge and Stanton in the line up.  I know it’s spring training but Greg Bird has been awful.  Didi hits lefties just fine – he needs to bat 3rd.
  • The Michigan bandwagon has gotten very crowded and SU is having trouble finding a seat these days.  But Florida State is a big challenge tonight as another tall and athletic team.  SU believes Michigan is most impacted by early foul trouble to Wagner and Simpson – not necessarily opposing defenses.  That’s what you need to watch out for in this game.  They won’t score 99 points again and won’t shoot 3s that well either.  Teams that bank on that are gone pretty quickly in college hoops.
  • Interesting article here on John Beilein’s coaching techniques relying on the fundamentals.  Sounds a lot like John Wooden who used to instruct players on how to tie their sneakers and pull their socks tight to avoid blisters:

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/columnists/john-niyo/2018/03/23/niyo-beileins-focus-basics-set-table-success/33233733/

Novak Djokovic lost in his first match in Miami after losing in his first match at Indian Wells a couple of weeks ago.  His career is starting to look a lot like Tiger Woods’ last 5 years after Woods backed his car into a tree on Thanksgiving night.  Djokovic had some mystery personal issue a couple of years ago after winning the French Open and has since been battling elbow issues with limited success.  He has taken months off at a time, had some minor procedures but no progress.  SU believes he will need major surgery on the elbow which tracks with Woods’ many back and knee surgeries.  The reality is he may be done as a top player which is a shame at 30 years old.  In fact, the men’s game is missing Murray, Nadal, Djokovic and Wawrinka now due to injuries which is allowing Federer to continue to flourish.  It’s a great time for the young American players to make their move.

New York says good bye to Jason Pierre-Paul who was traded to the Tampa Bay Bucs.  Too bad – he had a great run in NY but it is probably time for a change of scenery.   Is Eli Manning soon to follow out of town?

SU is not following the Jets’ logic of trading so many high draft picks to move up in the draft for this year.  If they are intent on drafting a quarterback, the guys out there are good but no sure thing.  Definitely rolling the dice.

Get your peanuts!