Let’s face it: the Yankees are not the Mets. They are not going to string together 4 – 5 hits in a row late in the game against the opponent’s top relievers. The Yankees live and die by the home run. They are not capable of stringing together a series of hits to generate runs. Guys like Giancarlo Stanton require 3 singles in a row to score him from first base (SU has learned that he is just now crossing 1st base from his grounder in the 8th inning last night).

The Yankees need Soto, Judge and Stanton to start producing or else they will be bounced by the Royals in a few days. Now, the good news is that they play much better on the road this year for whatever reason. The bad news is that Seth Lugo is starting for the Royals tomorrow night and he is tough on them. They could easily be down 2-1 with Cole going on Thursday. SU is seeing a game 5 Saturday night – do you roll out Rodon again for that one? And where is Gil? Look for Gil to be the first reliever in the game tomorrow night should Schmidt run into any trouble.

MLB is loving that these series are all tied at 1-1. The National League series are actually more interesting as these are teams that don’t like each other. No Big Papi hugs at first base for the Mets/Phillies or the Dodgers/Padres. SU believes that the Padres have poked the bear now and that will not help them in the long run vs. LA. That series will get more chippy and more batters will be hit in the next few games.

The Mets are the team of destiny. Truly. They don’t even show up for the first few innings but man do they finish. Citi Field will be rocking today and tomorrow. It would help if Diaz can regain some of his form to close out the games – he is the difference maker.

Buckle up NY fans.

SU says despite all of the Yankees’ flaws as a team this year, going into the post-season as AL East Division winners, they have to be one of the oddsmakers’ favorites to win it all. They will potentially have the best record in the AL, feature the dynamic duo of Soto and Judge, and be reasonably healthy going into October.

So, why is SU not so optimistic? Aside from being down on this team for much of the year (although they did exceed my 90 wins prediction), there are some real concerns:

1. Back end of the bullpen. Weaver has been a revelation and it seems very possible that Boone will use him like Torre did Mariano for 2 innings in close games. Clay Holmes is the X-factor and he is basically terrifying. He certainly cannot be relied on to close games but can he even be trusted in the 7th or 8th inning? No doubt he will be on a tight leash.
2. Pitching around Soto and Judge. There is just no way that teams will pitch to them in the post-season – even if it means putting men in scoring position. Wells was terrific for a long stretch but he has slumped badly in September. The reality is that he may just be tired starting so many games at catcher which is a demanding position. There is no way you pitch to Soto and Judge. SU can see Boone moving Stanton to cleanup and while he has been good in the playoffs in his career, his role will be even more important this year. Can he come through consistently?
3. The injury to Nestor Cortes is big. The Yankees have a lot of confidence in Gil and he was lights out in the first half of the season. He now throws a lot of pitches to just get through 4 innings and that puts more strain on the bullpen. Nestor would eat some innings. Maybe Clarke Schmidt will step up big. No way you pitch Stroman. Will Rodon justify the big contract now? Cole is a lock but some concerns beyond that.
4. Verdugo or Dominguez in left field? Unfortunately, Dominguez did not take full advantage of his opportunities in September and he is a liability in left field (apparently). Boone will go with Verdugo as a veteran but you can’t expect much from him. Volpe has struggled but Rizzo is showing signs of life.
5. Don’t underestimate the importance of the trade for Jazz Chisholm. They have played so much better with him on the roster as it allowed the Yankees to not play DJ LeMahieu. No way DJ is on the roster for the post-season. Good guy but it’s been a long 2-3 years now.
6. The Guardians have a lockdown bullpen. They are a scary match-up in the ALCS if they get that far. Houston is always a threat for the Yankees but they have handled them well this year – not as worried. SU is more concerned about the winner of the Tigers-Orioles matchup. Detroit is red hot and the Orioles have some experience under their belts now. from last season in the playoffs.

Bottom line: the Yankees need to at least make it to the World Series for this season to be considered a success. SU is not feeling it. Just too many flaws in a flawed American League.

Meanwhile, the Mets have been red hot but now the weather is causing them to potentially have to play a doubleheader vs. the Braves on Monday and then fly West for the Wild Card game. That is not right or fair. No way Milwaukee will be motivated to play them this weekend and they will no doubt rest some of their starters. That benefits them while Atlanta faces a Kansas City team that is about to clinch the Wild Card. They may also rest some of their players although they are playing for home field for the Wild Card series which is important. Exciting weekend on tap here and the Monday scenario is very interesting.

Oh, that has to be an easy one. Deshaun Watson, quarterback for the Cleveland Browns, is in the middle of a 5-year, fully guaranteed $230 million contract.

SU is not even basing this on the fact that he is not a good dude. His off-the-field actions are well-documented. And I give him a bit of a pass yesterday (no pun intended) as he had no time to throw the ball with his offensive line. But SU says even in the best of circumstances, he is not an elite quarterback and this type of contract in the NFL is a killer for the whole roster. It can set your franchise back several years if you screw this one up. Consider that to be the case here. Too bad as the Browns have a good defense. Just brutal. It makes the Giancarlo Stanton deal with the Yankees look pretty good (which it ain’t).

Speaking of the Yankees, SU was very, very disappointed (did I say very?) in Nestor Cortes complaining that he was brought in as a reliever on Saturday for the first time this year. He promptly pitched 4+ innings of great relief and got the win. And he still complained. Disrespected, blah, blah, blah. As a Yankee fan, the team’s biggest weakness going into the playoffs is the bullpen. Has he not been paying attention? If Nestor can be effective pitching 2-3 innings a game in the playoffs, that is huge. You have to figure Boone will roll out Cole, Gil and Rodon for the first 3 games of any series. Cortes would not be starting anyway. Isn’t it better to get him used to doing this in the regular season in September? Why is this so hard? Team first. “Happy to do it if it helps the team.” Bad look for Nestor who is a good guy. Do better.

While an American did not win the US Open this year, it was a great showing by the American men and women. SU roots for players no matter what their nationality – I have never gotten caught up in the “USA, USA” stuff. But it appears that we finally have some great talent to root for who are in the primes of their careers. Emma Navarro is only 23 and Coco is just 20. Tiafoe, Fritz, Paul, and even Shelton are right there.

Speaking of Ben Shelton, SU thought he was a bit of a punk last year at the Open with the hang up the phone gesture after winning a match. Not my style for sure. But he is definitely maturing and handles himself very well on the court now. SU was at the Tiafoe-Shelton match this year – might have been the best match of the Open. SU will be rooting for Shelton from here on out – he showed me something – including a much better backhand. Of all the American men, he will have the most upside looking to the future.

NFL week 1 is just about behind us. SU observation: not playing your starters in the exhibition games makes total sense – I get that. But so many teams are just not ready for week 1 – see NY Giants (who may not even be ready in week 18 this year). Not sure there is a better way but some ragged performances this week.

It has been sooooo long since American men have been in the mix on the ATP Tour. While the USTA may have had some initial concerns with the early exits of Alcaraz and Djokovic, and the absence of Nadal at this year’s Open, the extended runs of Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe to the semi-finals have been great for American fans. Tiafoe, in particular, is very entertaining and an easy guy to get behind.

On the women’s side, Emma Navarro is another player who you can root for. 2 years at UVA and she has vaulted into the top 10 of the WTA rankings now. She plays a very clean game and at 23, has her head on straight. Coco Gauff needs a reset. A few SU observations:

1. Allowing on-court coaching is a good idea. It is interesting to watch how players interact with their teams. In singles, the challenge as a player is to problem solve on your own – it’s an individual sport in singles. Alcaraz has a running conversation with his coach and team in every match, and you wonder if that hurts him in the end? Clearly, he is uber talented but you would think he could make some of these decisions on his own. Coco Gauff seems to have a lot of issues with her team and to the average fan, it has to be a net negative. I guess every player reacts differently but receiving constant direction and commentary would be annoying in my book.
2. The USTA is allowing too many people in each day. The National Tennis Center footprint is just not big enough and it becomes challenging to physically move around without shuffling along behind a lot of people. Hope they re-evaluate that next year.
3. The men’s game is definitely in transition now. Nadal will be gone next year most likely, and Djokovic is not playing many tournaments anymore. Plenty of talent in the pipeline and the game will be fine going forward – just different.
4. The winner of Medvedev vs. Sinner tonight is the likely winner of the Open. SU will be rooting for Tiafoe but those are really tough match-ups for him.

Yankees’ closer, Clay Holmes, below his 11th save last night – just a killer for the Yankees. Boone has to remove him from the closer’s role now and either do it by committee or, SU says, put either Gill or Schmidt in there as they are both returning this weekend. Gill may be the better option as he has pitched a lot of innings. The offense has actually been a bit better of late. The bullpen will cost them in October for sure. Let’s see if Boone finally makes the move. There are many on Twitter who are ready.

No.

In other news…

But seriously, who are we kidding? We have a sufficiently large body of work now that has to convince anyone paying attention in the Yankees’ front office. SU says no lead under 5 runs is safe going into the 9th inning with the bullpen in general and especially with the closer. Holmes leads MLB with 10 blown saves – a staggering number for a team right up there with the best record in baseball. You can pretty much say now that if the Yankees fall short of winning the AL East, it is on Holmes. He is a good guy and takes responsibility but apparently not cut out for this role.

The trade deadline is behind us. Mark Leiter Jr. is clearly not the answer although he is good for extra innings if you need to end the game quickly. SU says that they need to take one of the starters and put him in the bullpen. Gill is the more obvious choice given concerns over his innings pitched this year coming off surgery but he is likely their 2nd best starter in the playoffs behind Cole. Nestor Cortes would be interesting as his velocity will go up pitching out of the bullpen. Even Clarke Schmidt would be an option.

The battle for the AL East title will go down to the wire with Baltimore and it makes a huge difference. SU can easily see teams not pitching to Judge at all in the post-season, and the lineup really tails off after him. The return of Jazz Chisholm is a difference maker but we will have to see if he can avoid surgery.

For the Yankees, this is a winnable pennant year. No other team is that scary but they need to lengthen the effectiveness of the lineup and fix the bullpen before October. Unclear that either will happen.

For the 17 people that watch the Tennis Channel (globally), this was a crazy match point the other night between FAA from Canada and Jack Draper, the #1 UK player these days. Draper had the match point and was serving and volleying. Take a look: you have to watch about 45 seconds into the video to see the side angle.

It screams for umpires to have access to video replay on these types of plays – not in the rules today. But…. SU says that an experienced player actually knows what happened. If you watch Draper, he almost reaches out with his hand to catch the ball after hitting it as he knows it his racket and then hit the ground before bouncing off the net cord for a winner. The ball would have had underspin and not bounced so far forward off the net if he hit it cleanly. But it had overspin because it hit the ground off his racket.

He needed to ‘fess up there but decided to take the win. That will cost him in the locker-room longer term. Missed a chance to display good sportsmanship.

So, what are we supposed to do now? After 2 weeks of playing around with the Peacock channel and being able to pick and choose what you want to watch, are we back to watching the Yankees on Amazon or Apple TV? No longer able to flip around for a few hours? That cannot be fair!

The folks at NBC have to be thrilled with their huge Olympics investment for the 2024 Summer games. Maybe it was the time zone difference (vs. China or Japan) but the games this year just seemed easier to follow. SU favorites: table tennis (they are so good); track and field was crazy with the number of world records set and the close finishes; beach volleyball (they never get tired); tennis (SU enjoyed the Djokovic success there); and soccer. LA28 cannot get here soon enough but we have to wait 4 long years. It will be interesting to see how they schedule the night time events as fans in the East will not want to watch games starting at 11 pm.

While the US Men’s and Women’s basketball teams won the gold, they really did not shine in those final games. I mean France was featuring Evan Fournier who could not even get into a Knick game for almost an entire season! Steph Curry is all-World of course but that game should have been a blowout. For SU, what was striking on the US team was their inability to defend and rebound. You could not argue with the roster – all were deserving – but this team was bailed out by the old guys: LeBron; Curry; and Durant. And one more thing: stop complaining on every foul or non-foul call. Play the game and move on.

SU did not see that much of the women’s gold medal game but that team could not rebound and had so many turnovers. Again, a star studded roster and SU was not a supporter of adding Caitlin Clark to this year’s team. But adding her and Paige Bueckers among others in 2028 will be a super team with much better outside shooting. Play more up tempo and have some shooters out there.

The Yankees are tied for first place and that is a good thing for mid-August. No complaints there. And there are no super teams in the AL – this is a winnable pennant year for the Yankees. But the bullpen is absolutely terrifying – no-one is a sure thing. Clay Holmes for a 4-out, 50-pitch save yesterday? The key may be to get Clarke Schmidt healthy and then put one of the starters into the bullpen for the rest of the year and the post-season. SU feels the offense will be good enough – especially if they bring up Jasson Dominguez now. They should be able to score enough runs although the team is still up and down. No-one is that much better but they will need to win playoff games by 5 runs to feel comfortable for the fans.

True Yankee fans knew this was coming. The first half of the season was just going too well. Players were generally healthy and the starters were having one quality start after another even without Gerrit Cole. The bullpen, filled with new faces, was leading MLB. The roster had no bench but with Soto and Judge playing every day, and Verdugo exceeding expectations, you did not need to score that many runs. SU believes the record peaked at 48-19 or somewhere in that ballpark. A 71.6% winning pace which would translate to an overall record of 116 wins for the season.

David Cone always talks about “regression to the mean” and SU is a believer in that. The Yankee starters have mostly all gone cold now and the bullpen is very unreliable. Clay Holmes is not a true closer apparently and there are so many no names in there now. SU’s preseason over/under for the Yankees was 90 wins and that is starting to look a bit better as near the trade deadline. Jasson Dominguez has started his rehab assignment coming off an oblique injury and he might be a huge difference maker in the outfield for the final 2 months. He would inject some needed excitement and youth into the lineup. Ben Rice started well but is now under .200. DJ LeMahieu is running on fumes – just another bad long-term contract along the lines of Stanton.

Stanton becomes a key guy returning on Monday with no rehab stint. They just need someone to hit behind Judge. SU wonders why any team ever pitches to Judge? No one will hurt you coming up behind him in the lineup. Verdugo’s regression has been a killer. You figure he will bounce back but hard to know.

Cole has been up and down and hard to know if he is truly healthy. Gleyber Torres is showing signs of life but no doubt he is pressing in his walk year. The issue seems to be that there is very little on the way in the minors for the near term. SU does not believe this is Boone’s fault. If you look at the roster, there are no pieces to move in and out of this lineup.

The frustrating part is that there are no super teams out there for this season in the AL. Baltimore is better but still young. You have Soto for one year and it’s hard to imagine Hal will give him Judge type money for a long-term deal. So, this year is your best shot. But the roster needs a lot of upgrades. SU says watch the 3rd baseman on Tampa Bay, Issac Paredes, for a trade. The Yankees are desperate for an upgrade offensively and he would fill a big hole for them.

Prediction: Cashman goes all in with moves between now and Tuesday evening. Mostly relievers and position players – not starters. LeMahieu will be designated for assignment – and will be picked up by someone contending.

Thoughts? Is the play to just qualify for the playoffs and see what happens? Or do you really try and go for it? The next couple of days will be interesting.

Gleyber Torres was finally exposed last night by the YES Network. Now, keep in mind that YES never highlights Yankee players who are struggling, not performing, in a slump, etc. Never in a graphic on the screen. SU believes that Gleyber is a good guy and was an excellent player a few years ago early in his career. But he bulked up one off season to hit more home runs and has been a shadow of his former self since then. He is a free agent after this season and has been pretty awful all year.

SU’s beef with Gleyber is that he does not hustle running to first base on ground balls. Never. Typically, no one says anything about it. Last night in the 8th inning, after Judge’s grand slam, Gleyber hit a slow ground ball to shortstop. You thought initially if he ran hard, could be a close play at first base. Nope. He was about 2/3 of the way there when the throw arrived. Incredibly, after the commercial break, YES showed the replay of him running – er make that jogging – and there was some brief discussion about it. On the post-game show, they called him out on it. SU does not know if Boone commented but this has been going on all season. If you are hitting .300, you can get away with it. He is clearly pressing in his walk year. But it’s a really bad look. Just run hard. Derek Jeter was not the same player late in his career and he hit a million ground balls – always ran hard to first base. You know he was frustrated but he played the right way.

As noted last week, the Yankees are in trouble. The bullpen is a bunch of no name guys now with all of the injuries. The bench was already non-existent and the annual Stanton injury comes at a bad time. Dominguez would have been called up to replace him but he has an oblique injury and will be out 8 weeks. The Yankees signed JD Davis (DFA’d by Oakland – that should say it all) and he won’t be the answer. LeMahieu is hitting .170 with no extra base hits. Great first half record but the AL East is going to tighten up now as Boston is playing well.

The challenge for Cashman is that about 2/3 of the MLB Clubs are in the Wild Card chase and will not be sellers. So, fewer choices for upgrades at the trade deadline.

The Mets are on the upswing – looking so much better now. SU is glad to see that and they are an easy team to root for.

SU is not optimistic about the Yankees. Brian Cashman will be earning his salary in the next 5 weeks.

So, we start with the good news: the return of Gerrit Cole on Wednesday to start against Baltimore. Ok, that is it.

Now, today’s injury report: reliever Ian Hamilton goes on the IL with a lat strain – out 3 – 4 weeks. Cody Poteet who has been the 5th starter has a right tricep strain and will not throw for 1 – 2 weeks. Jasson Dominguez who is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery is awaiting results from his MRI.

SU says that the bullpen is the team’s greatest weakness and they were already not that reliable. Yes, they have the best record in the AL and all that but the Yankees are below .500 vs. the AL East. They have feasted on the bad teams in MLB this year and there are many that fall into that category. Judge and Soto have carried them with assists from Volpe and Verdugo. The rest of the lineup – not so much. Starting pitching has been lights out and you know that will not continue all year. For SU, the goal has to be the World Series this season and I believe the bullpen is going to hold them back in the end.

Something to watch for.

The answers are: Maybe – at least for 2024; and man, could be.

Let me start with the Yankees. Great record, crazy good starting pitching and a bullpen that seems to be better collectively than they are as individual relievers. SU is not quite sure how they have been that good all year. And spare me the comments on being an overly entitled Yankee fan. I get the record is outstanding.

The issue for me is that the American League feels historically weak this year. Sure, Baltimore is really good (took 3 out of 4 from the Yankees) but then what? Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota – those are the powerhouse teams? We are only 1/3 of the way through the season and some teams may emerge at some point. But for SU, the Yankees’ 39 – 19 record is a direct reflection of the competition this year – not necessarily their greatness. Soto is a huge difference maker and Hal is already pleading poverty about signing him long-term after this season. The only saving grace is who else can afford him? You have to figure the Dodgers are tapped out now. Maybe the Red Sox? Cubs? Giants? Or will Steve Cohen go all in? SU can definitely see the Mets outbid the Yankees for Soto. Makes a lot of sense.

Clark Schmidt is now on the IL but Gerrit Cole may be back later in June so that takes care of itself. LeMahieu is back and that is big as he can play 1st base also. Gleyber Torres is either feeling the pressure of being a free agent after this year or his early years were just an aberration. There is no way the Yankees will re-sign him. SU note to Gleyber: please just run hard to 1st base. Once in a while – maybe once a week.

SU believes that Cashman will not stand pat at the trade deadline and will pick up some bench players and a reliever. They have plenty to make the playoffs – question is can they beat the Orioles in the post-season. The reality is that the best teams are in the National League: Phillies; Dodgers; and the Braves. Odd year.

Which brings me to the Mets. SU actually watched some of their games this week vs. the Dodgers. First of all, the Dodgers are not playing that well right now but they have some star players. The Mets were near .500 a couple of weeks ago but man, they look lifeless on offense right now. And when Ottavino is your closer well, you have big problems late in the game trying to hold a lead. They may get back to .500 if their schedule gets easier but they are not a good team. Sure, they have had some key injuries but this is a mediocre team that will be in a rebuild for a while. You have to figure they will be sellers at the deadline and will look to start over in 2025.

SU has been watching the Ranger playoff games. Very exciting. Florida is tough and seem to dominate the action for long stretches. The Rangers will be fortunate to get this to a game 7 but who knows? If you can get into OT, anything can happen.

The NBA finals will be interesting. The stars will be out. Boston is the clear favorite and they have the better roster but these games should be entertaining. The Timberwolves are not quite ready – they are probably one veteran short to getting over the hump.