As MLB’s winter meetings get underway, the consensus opinion is that Juan Soto will be making his decision in the next day or so. What that means is that Soto will decide from which team he will take $700 million for his free agent contract. What makes him so unusual is that he is only 26 years old because he started his Major League career at such a young age. As a result, the team he signs with will be getting a player much younger than your normal free agent, and that team will no doubt get a lot more production over the course of that contract as well.

SU has thought from the beginning that Soto will sign with the Mets. Steve Cohen has the money and he has no problem spending it on his team. This is probably the best investment he can make in a player. Hal Steinbrenner has, apparently, been willing to go as high as $700 million but hard to see Cohen losing out on signing Soto over money. It’s possible Soto will like the idea of playing with Judge for the next 10 years and the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium, and will take a few million less. But Soto is a Scott Boras client and we know how these things usually end – go with the high bidder and call it a day. Supposedly, the Dodgers, Red Sox and Blue Jays are still in the mix.

The good news is that Soto will decide in December so that other teams can make alternative plans now vs. waiting it out right up to Spring Training in 2025. SU says decide and we can all move on. I hope he stays with the Yankees. The dude plays every day, runs out his ground balls hard to 1st base (see Robinson Cano and Gleyber Torres? It is possible to do that), and has a great swing to watch. But you have to figure Cashman has a Plan B ready to go to overpay for middling players, all right handed hitters who will show they cannot perform in NY. Cannot wait!!

SU likes the Mets’ signing of Clay Holmes. He is still only 31 years old and maybe they turn him into a starting pitcher. Even if that does not work out, he is a versatile reliever. Yankee fans hated him but SU notes he tried hard, cared and was a stand-up guy in the locker room win or lose. Worth the gamble and he will surprise people.

SU loved the Michigan win over Ohio State last week despite not having their best players on offense and defense, and playing with a quarterback who can barely complete a pass. SU did not love the flag planting after the game, and the NCAA or Conference Commissioners (who have more power I guess these days) should just outlaw that stuff now. I know we live in a world where you rub your opponent’s face in it if you win (not just talking about sports here of course) but we don’t need it at the college level. Shake hands, celebrate on the field for a few minutes and go celebrate in your locker room. It’s a bad look. You know what is also a bad look? Ryan Day just standing on the fringe of the action instead of trying to break up the fights as his assistants were doing and the Michigan coaches were doing. SU believes he needs to win the natty this year to save his job – if he even wants to stay. The pressure must be intense on both him and his family.

And, by the way, if you lose, learn to lose and take your lumps. Use it as motivation to win next time. SU is old and I am old school on a lot of this. I don’t like the bat flips on the home runs, the 60-second trots around the bases, the taunting of NFL players as they cross the goal line. As the saying goes, “act like you’ve been there before.” What a concept.

The Knicks continue to be a fun watch this year although they have no bench and that will come back to haunt them soon enough as Thibodeau is putting large minutes on the starters early in the season. Not sustainable. Something has to give there with some trades in January and February. Wonder if they could somehow bring back Donte?

Keep an eye on the Djokovic coaching arrangement with Andy Murray for his Australian swing in January. It’s an interesting concept for a player who regularly is screaming at his box during matches. But if you win matches on the margins, perhaps Murray can offer enough small tips to make a difference. Good for the sport either way to give people something else to talk about instead of failed PED tests to top players.

As SU said earlier, just getting to the World Series for the Yankees this year was a win – a successful season – and I stick with that. Once you are there, stuff can happen in a short series. But… having said that, this was very frustrating for Yankee fans. Their weaknesses were all exposed by a very good Dodgers team. Fact: the Yankees lost to a better team. SU notes these points:

1. The 5th inning last night – epic. OK, Judge, who is a gold glover caliber outfielder, just dropped one – stuff happens. Volpe would have been better off going for the force at 2nd base but had that runner at 3rd with a good throw. The grounder to Rizzo had a lot of spin on it and SU can see why he let it roll to him figuring Cole was covering. That was on Cole.
2. Cole pitched great for most of the game.
3. The bullpen actually was decent for the series. You can’t really fault them except for game 1.
4. 1 for 10 with RISP last night. Typical of this team all year. The Dodgers put the ball in play. You can claim that some of their hits are lucky, but that’s baseball and good things can happen when you do that vs. striking out.
5. Stanton earned his pinstripes. SU will no longer bad mouth him. He comes to play in October and we can see that not everyone does that. He can’t stay healthy in the regular season and is cold for long stretches, but he is not cold in October.
6. Judge had finally gotten hot the last two games. A shame they could not force this back to LA for a game 6.

Bottom line: fans can hope for Soto to return but SU says less than 50-50 that happens. Can’t see Hal putting up the money to do that. Get some relievers for next year and hope they can stay healthy. And let’s have more hitters who just hit vs. home runs.

Tough one to swallow but we move on to the Knicks here in New York… and the Rangers/Islanders. Football usually ends in September here.

Long-time Yankee fans remember the 1978 World Series vs. the Dodgers where the Yankees dropped games 1 and 2 in LA, and Reggie Jackson whiffed to end game 2 against rookie Bob Welch. The Yankees went on to win the next 4 games clinching the Series back in LA and Reggie homered off of Welch in game 6. Tides can turn. But will they this year?

Full disclosure: SU did not see game 2 but in viewing the box score, it’s not pretty. The issue is that their lineup is not “circular.” These are not the 1998 Yankees where everyone could hit and wait for it….. everyone could put the ball in play. This team is reliant on Soto, Stanton and Judge in large part. When they are hitting, it’s all good. But when 1 or 2 of them are not, big problemo. Judge is ice cold but SU continues to believe he is one swing away from getting back on track. The reality is that they don’t have enough offense against a top team like the Dodgers to win the series without him doing something – even if it’s taking a few walks.

The Yankees had game one – it was in the books. Game 2 they did not compete until the 9th inning where they loaded the bases but Volpe struck out and Trevino, hitting for Wells, flied out and that was that. Win game 3 and hold serve. Pat Riley used to say that a playoff series doesn’t really start until one team wins on the other team’s home court. We are still not there as of yet.

But…. you cannot fall behind 0-3. That makes Monday night’s game huge and we will see if the Yankees are just happy to be here this year or if they will compete. SU continues to believe.

Yankee fans are reeling this morning after Freddy Freeman’s 2-out, game winning grand slam last night. SU says score 1 for the Dodgers but this is a best of 7-game series, and plenty of games to go for the Yankees. Of course, there are some concerns:

1. Aaron Boone had a great series vs. Cleveland in handling the bullpen. As long-time Yankee fans know, that is unusual for him. He returned to form last night with a few puzzling moves that came back to haunt him. Pulled Cole too soon and you can’t do that if the game goes beyond 9 innings. The Yankees don’t have enough quality relievers this year to go into extra innings and that came back to bite him. Cole is your ace; SU says ride him longer as he won’t pitch again until game 5.
2. Cortes instead of Hill? SU knows Nestor is on the roster to face Ohtani and he did get him out. Boone was bold walking Betts to put the winning run on 2nd base to score on a single. Not many managers would do that. The 2nd guessers will say Hill was the obvious choice given how well he has pitched in the post-season. Cortes has good numbers against Ohtani – probably going back to when he was on the Angels. Not sure how relevant that is now. Now, what does Boone do next time? Trust Nestor? Go to Hill? We may find out as soon as tonight.
3. Yankees continue to not hit with RISP (1 for 8 last night). However, they did manufacture a run in the 10th and Jazz is coming to life finally in the post-season. He is streaky and that bodes well for the Yankees now. He can actually steal a base.
4. Judge continues to struggle but SU says this. He is not good coming off long layoffs, and he did get a hit last night before just missing one in the 9th and popping up (“JUST got under it”). SU says he breaks out tonight and is good for the rest of the series. Jazz and Judge will lengthen the productive part of the lineup.
5. SU did not like running for Gleyber in the 9th inning. He is fast enough and perhaps makes that play at 2nd in the bottom of the 10th that Cabrera could not come up with. Stop over managing please.
6. Finally: SU would have left Weaver in for the bottom of the 10th. He had not pitched for a week, and his pitch count was manageable. You had the lead there – go with your best to win it.

Bottom line: advantage Dodgers in any close game. Yankees need a blowout win tonight to get the split in LA. The offense has yet to really break out and SU feels this is the night – finally. No need for the Yankees to panic and this team has shown it’s resilient.

SU is excited about the Yankees returning to the World Series after a 15-year absence. As SU said at the start of the year, the goal for 2024 was getting there. If they win it all, it’s gravy on top but this was the year to play in late October. It was funny seeing Hal Steinbrenner in the celebration – hardly ever see him in person or hear from him. He did look a little pained talking about Juan Soto and his home run as that probably will cost him another $150 million on the contract. SU worries that if they win it all, Hal is satisfied and let’s Soto just walk.

It’s up to the Mets now to do their part to have a subway series. No doubt FOX is rooting for the Dodgers of course as that will generate more national interest in the World Series.

SU has to make this observation. I get the analytics and how you play the percentages. But in both the Royals’ and Guardians’ series, how do you pitch to Stanton or Soto in certain situations? Soto has been locked in for every game – even his outs are generally hard hit. He is focused and his level swing on balls even high in the zone are such an advantage. The same with Stanton – so many big home runs in the post-season. It’s funny as it feels like many of his home runs in the regular season are late in blowout win games. Not in the post-season: he is money.

Judge has been ice cold in both series. Doesn’t it make sense to pitch around Soto (read: WALK HIM) and take your chances with Judge with men on base? Last night in the 10th inning was typical. The Guardians screwed up a force at 2nd base which resulted in Soto coming up against a right handed reliever with runners on 1st and 2nd and 2 outs. SU says you walk him there to load the bases and pitch to Judge who is swinging at every low and outside pitch in the playoffs. Sure, you could walk him but Soto is too locked. The common thinking is that you only put a guy on if it’s 2nd and 3rd but what’s the difference?

Same with Stanton in the 6th inning. Two outs and a man on base. Jazz on deck who is hitting .121 in the post-season and is almost an automatic out. It is so obvious. And it wasn’t just Vogt on the Guardians. The Royals’ manager was doing the same thing. SU says you cannot expect the National League manager in the Series to do the same – or can you?

Props to Aaron Boone who made all the right moves in this series with his relievers. Now, he got a little lucky as no-one expected Mark Leiter Jr. to be so effective. He was huge in 2 of the wins. And let’s be real by the way: in the 10th inning, if the Yankees don’t score, it would have been Tim Mayza coming in to pitch the bottom of the 10th inning and we could all have gone to bed then. The guy with the 9.00 ERA released by Toronto – he is clearly who you want to pitch in the ALCS. Sigh.

Also have to acknowledge that Gleyber Torres has had some post-season. He finds a way to get on base in front of Soto and is even running the bases with purpose (btw, SU does note that Soto runs hard to 1st base on every routine ground ball – good for him). The Yankees win with production from the top of the order and then pray for anything from the bottom half. Volpe is locked in and is hitting to right field – huge for him.

Hard to say it but the Yankees have the better starters for the World Series over either the Mets or the Dodgers. Does not mean they will win but would never have thought that.

This was a great series and Cleveland played the Yankees tough. They put the ball in play and run the bases. And it shows that if you expose your relievers to the opponent in every game, it will catch up to you.

Veteran (translation: older) baseball fans will remember Arizona Diamondbacks reliever, Byung-hyng Kim, in the 2001 World Series with the Yankees when he blew 9th inning leads to the Yankees in games 4 and 5 at Yankee Stadium. There were dramatic home runs by Tino Martinez, Scott Brosius and Derek Jeter in those games that totally turned around a series that the D’Backs were dominating. Manager Bob Brenly kept rolling him out for multiple inning appearances and the Yankees finally figured things out.

Well, last night Luke Weaver did his best Kim imitation. He has appeared in every Yankee playoff game so far, and often in multiple innings appearances. No matter how dominant a reliever might be, if you keep putting them out there game after game, the opposition will start to get used to facing him. That is also a challenge for Cleveland as their starters don’t go deep in any games.

Full disclosure: SU was playing tennis and only saw the bottom of the 9th inning and the 10th (after listening a bit to John Sterling on the radio which is still just too painful. Why does the listener have to pay so much attention to the crowd noise to know what really is happening?). The Yankees went from being up 3-0, to allowing Cleveland back into the series with clear momentum going into game 4. Now, baseball is not like basketball. A different scenario in the NBA where a late 3-pointer can change the series and real momentum as the teams face off in the next game with the same exact players. In baseball, it is about the next game’s starting pitcher. The Yankees will roll out Gil who hasn’t pitched in weeks and was pretty much running on fumes down the stretch. SU sees a 90-pitch outing over 3 innings with lots of walks tonight. It will still be a winnable game for the Yankees if they can hit with runners in scoring position (1 for 8 last night) but no way to expect that. As SU has said on many occasions, they need a lot of home runs to win. This team is not built for singles and doubles.

SU still says the Yankees have the advantage with Rodon going in game 5 and Cole at home in game 6. No excuses. You have to figure Weaver will not be available tonight. Someone will score a lot of runs tonight – SU’s guess is Cleveland is that someone. Clay Holmes is the closer – what can go wrong? Buckle up Yankee fans.

Meanwhile, the Mets are on the brink of elimination vs. the Dodgers. SU says they will not go out quietly this evening, and will force a game 6 back in LA. Do not count them out.

SU is perplexed. MLB Clubs have access to all of the latest analytics, stats, video, scouting reports, etc. If you watch Yankee games, the following are true:

1. They hit a lot of home runs.
2. 6 – 9 in the lineup has done nothing for weeks and weeks.
3. You can also throw Wells in there at cleanup who has been in a terrible slump for a month now.
4. They cannot hit with runners in scoring position. At all.
5. Stanton is red hot.

Soooo, you have Stanton coming up in the 7th inning with no-one on base and 2 outs. Why would you pitch to him? Just walk him. Instead, he belts a 430-foot home run and you knew he was going to do it. He just missed in the 1st inning with 2 on and 2 outs. Again, later in the game, he flied out to the warning track in right field. Jazz has done nothing and after that, nothing. It seems crazy to me that managers are ever pitching to him right now.

Boone may be tempted to move Stanton up to clean-up in the lineup or perhaps you slot Rizzo in there? Wells is clearly struggling and he might be more relaxed hitting lower in the order. SU says the Yankees’ inability to hit with RISP is going to catch up with them.

SU does give a lot of credit to Boone for finding a way to get Gleyber untracked this year. Clearly moving him to lead-off was a brilliant move. Everything he hits now is solid and he is a different player – and will be a difference maker if anyone in the lower part of the lineup can get on base for him.

This will be an interesting series. Rodon was an ace last night – so many swings and misses – and hopefully he has figured out some things. The Guardians didn’t use their top relievers but had some chances late. I guess 5 wild pitches and a ton of walks is not a winning formula. Cole in game 2 is huge for the Yankees as you count on him to be the guy. They will need to continue to hit home runs.

SU loved the way the Mets bounced back. The next 3 games are in Citi Field and you wonder if the Dodgers might be a bit intimidated coming to New York and playing in the cold at night. The Mets are sooooo loose and relaxed. Sure, their relievers are a bit scary but they do hit with RISP and you believe that they will.

The MLB Playoffs have come to New York for the next week, and the pressure is very different for the two New York teams. For the Mets, they are playing with house money. They have far exceeded expectations given where they were back in May, and barely making it into the post-season as one of the Wild Card teams. This has been a great run and now they play the mighty Dodgers. While losing 9-0 in game 1 was obviously not the desired outcome, remember this is a best of 7-game series and you can handle a blowout loss on the road. No problem. Get the split in game 2, and then you have the next 3 games in New York. The Dodgers are on an impressive pitching streak right now, but streaks come to an end. No worries. Back to work.

For the Yankees, the theme has to be “no excuses.” You have home field for the ALCS and you are basically set up pitching wise for this next round vs. the Guardians. True: Cleveland has a lockdown bullpen, and you would like to have the lead or be very close after 5 innings. On the other hand, the Tigers showed what happens when you see the same relievers game after game. You start to hit them. SU has the reputation of always being pessimistic about the Yankees but it is with good reason. They did not get many style points in the series vs the Royals but as we know, the goal is to advance. Stanton is hitting and luckily the Royals’ manager did not figure out that after Stanton in the Yankees’ lineup, there is no one that should scare you. So he pitched to him with RISP. Not smart.

SU suspects the Guardians will have a better game plan there. While Judge looked lost for much of that series, SU saw enough positive signs in the last game that I predict he will break out this series. Boone may want to move Stanton to cleanup and Wells either 5th or further down in the order. This will be a hard series for the Yankees as Cleveland will put the ball in play, run and play good defense. For the Yankees to win, they need to hit home runs. And a lot of them. Plain and simple.

Rodon in game 1? Ugh. He is certainly better at home and that may be the strategy here, and avoid having him pitch in Cleveland. SU hopes to see Gil start one of these games. The expectations from the fans are huge and all of New York wants to see a Subway Series (as opposed to the rest of the country). The Mets will have fun. The Yankees? Buckle up.

SU sees both series going the full 7 games. Here’s hoping for a Subway Series. Why not?

Let’s face it: the Yankees are not the Mets. They are not going to string together 4 – 5 hits in a row late in the game against the opponent’s top relievers. The Yankees live and die by the home run. They are not capable of stringing together a series of hits to generate runs. Guys like Giancarlo Stanton require 3 singles in a row to score him from first base (SU has learned that he is just now crossing 1st base from his grounder in the 8th inning last night).

The Yankees need Soto, Judge and Stanton to start producing or else they will be bounced by the Royals in a few days. Now, the good news is that they play much better on the road this year for whatever reason. The bad news is that Seth Lugo is starting for the Royals tomorrow night and he is tough on them. They could easily be down 2-1 with Cole going on Thursday. SU is seeing a game 5 Saturday night – do you roll out Rodon again for that one? And where is Gil? Look for Gil to be the first reliever in the game tomorrow night should Schmidt run into any trouble.

MLB is loving that these series are all tied at 1-1. The National League series are actually more interesting as these are teams that don’t like each other. No Big Papi hugs at first base for the Mets/Phillies or the Dodgers/Padres. SU believes that the Padres have poked the bear now and that will not help them in the long run vs. LA. That series will get more chippy and more batters will be hit in the next few games.

The Mets are the team of destiny. Truly. They don’t even show up for the first few innings but man do they finish. Citi Field will be rocking today and tomorrow. It would help if Diaz can regain some of his form to close out the games – he is the difference maker.

Buckle up NY fans.

SU says despite all of the Yankees’ flaws as a team this year, going into the post-season as AL East Division winners, they have to be one of the oddsmakers’ favorites to win it all. They will potentially have the best record in the AL, feature the dynamic duo of Soto and Judge, and be reasonably healthy going into October.

So, why is SU not so optimistic? Aside from being down on this team for much of the year (although they did exceed my 90 wins prediction), there are some real concerns:

1. Back end of the bullpen. Weaver has been a revelation and it seems very possible that Boone will use him like Torre did Mariano for 2 innings in close games. Clay Holmes is the X-factor and he is basically terrifying. He certainly cannot be relied on to close games but can he even be trusted in the 7th or 8th inning? No doubt he will be on a tight leash.
2. Pitching around Soto and Judge. There is just no way that teams will pitch to them in the post-season – even if it means putting men in scoring position. Wells was terrific for a long stretch but he has slumped badly in September. The reality is that he may just be tired starting so many games at catcher which is a demanding position. There is no way you pitch to Soto and Judge. SU can see Boone moving Stanton to cleanup and while he has been good in the playoffs in his career, his role will be even more important this year. Can he come through consistently?
3. The injury to Nestor Cortes is big. The Yankees have a lot of confidence in Gil and he was lights out in the first half of the season. He now throws a lot of pitches to just get through 4 innings and that puts more strain on the bullpen. Nestor would eat some innings. Maybe Clarke Schmidt will step up big. No way you pitch Stroman. Will Rodon justify the big contract now? Cole is a lock but some concerns beyond that.
4. Verdugo or Dominguez in left field? Unfortunately, Dominguez did not take full advantage of his opportunities in September and he is a liability in left field (apparently). Boone will go with Verdugo as a veteran but you can’t expect much from him. Volpe has struggled but Rizzo is showing signs of life.
5. Don’t underestimate the importance of the trade for Jazz Chisholm. They have played so much better with him on the roster as it allowed the Yankees to not play DJ LeMahieu. No way DJ is on the roster for the post-season. Good guy but it’s been a long 2-3 years now.
6. The Guardians have a lockdown bullpen. They are a scary match-up in the ALCS if they get that far. Houston is always a threat for the Yankees but they have handled them well this year – not as worried. SU is more concerned about the winner of the Tigers-Orioles matchup. Detroit is red hot and the Orioles have some experience under their belts now. from last season in the playoffs.

Bottom line: the Yankees need to at least make it to the World Series for this season to be considered a success. SU is not feeling it. Just too many flaws in a flawed American League.

Meanwhile, the Mets have been red hot but now the weather is causing them to potentially have to play a doubleheader vs. the Braves on Monday and then fly West for the Wild Card game. That is not right or fair. No way Milwaukee will be motivated to play them this weekend and they will no doubt rest some of their starters. That benefits them while Atlanta faces a Kansas City team that is about to clinch the Wild Card. They may also rest some of their players although they are playing for home field for the Wild Card series which is important. Exciting weekend on tap here and the Monday scenario is very interesting.