All posts by HowardLevineSU

Snakes Alive

Apologies for the lack of posts over the past few weeks. SU has been totally immersed in what is going on in Israel, and quite frankly the developments in the sports world are all pretty trivial in comparison of course.

No doubt the higher ups at MLB and FOX could not have been too pleased to see Arizona take out the Phillies in game 7 last night. I mean the ratings for this World Series are going to be epically low.

Congrats to fairly long-time SU subscriber, J. Levine (no relation), who is one of the new baseball data analytics gurus at the Diamondbacks. Clearly, he has had an immediate impact on the team’s fortunes. SU has enjoyed watching Arizona: they put the ball in play. What a concept! They don’t have any big name/big contract players, they run the bases, catch the ball and seem to be athletic. Very anti-Yankee like I must say. Texas is a fun team to watch: high octane offense, 3 ex-Yankee pitchers in their starting rotation and of course, Aroldis Chapman to make things exciting in the 8th inning. He may have set a record with hitting a batter with a 104 mph fastball the other night. At this point in his career, it has to be scary facing him as Chapman has no idea where his pitches are going.

SU has to say that after watching Yankee games for much of the season, it is refreshing to see teams play the right way. The Phillies had a great run but in the end, they were too reliant on the home run, and when those stopped, they could not recover.

We are nearing the half-way point of the NFL season. SU cannot recall a season where so many teams were either bad or just mediocre. There are few top tier teams in either Conference. Probably the Chiefs and Eagles qualify and the Dolphins are trying to get there. Beyond that, not so much. Now, that can make for an exciting playoff picture where a lot of teams can win it all. That is the positive for sure.

The NBA season has kicked off. SU is back on the Knicks’ bandwagon for this season. I like having 3 ex-Villanova players on the roster who will all play important minutes. They come with high basketball IQs. SU has once again purchased the NBA Season Pass so I can watch every game, every night (if I wanted to, of course). Per usual, SU will keep an eye on the ex-Michigan players. If you do fantasy hoops, you have to get Jordan Poole on your team. Now that he is on the Wizards, he will lead the League in shots per minute. He is fun to watch and can put up some big points when he is on. He can also do a John Starks 2 for 17 when he is not but he surely does not lack confidence. SU also has its eye on Orlando – a lot of young players and they are ready to emerge this year.

SU is keeping an eye on the Michigan video scandal. I do find it a little odd how the NCAA, which takes months and months to do any investigation and impose penalties, is leaking information to the media. Or, and more likely, it’s the teams that they have been speaking to whose games have been videotaped that are leaking information. Either way, it’s a bad look for a team that is having a great season so far – against bad competition. What happened to the Big Ten? You have Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and I suppose, Maryland. And then a lot of bad teams.

The PAC-12, soon to be the no more conference, has some very fun teams to watch. Washington, Oregon and USC can all light it up, and Oregon State is actually pretty decent as well along with Utah. SU is looking forward to next year with the expanded 12-team playoff format. That will be really good as the bowl games have become mostly irrelevant the last few years. A good move by the powers that be. I mean, it’s not about education for these players (unfortunately) or for the schools. It’s about more money and this will help that cause.

Finally, Yankee fans await the results of the “audit” that Hal has commissioned of the team’s operations. SU says no one is leaving. Aaron Boone will be back as will Cashman. Stanton is untradeable – don’t get your hopes up there. Keep an eye on Soto in San Diego and a possible trade for many of the Yankee prospects and Michael King. He is young, left-handed and in his prime. He even seems athletic which I know does not fit the team profile but the auditors may have uncovered something. Who knows?

It’s Unfair to Dump on Daniel Jones

Let’s face it: the Giants are really under-performing this season given what were more hopeful expectations coming off of last season. Now, the truth may be that they over-achieved last year and the start to this season should not even be a surprise. The injury to Saquon Barkley is a big factor but truth be told, he had to earn every yard last year running behind a less than stellar offensive line.

And the offensive line is what is killing the Giants this year (along with special teams which I guess we take for granted on other teams). Daniel Jones has no time back there. 10 sacks last night is a number you never see in the NFL – not even in college. He was running for his life all night long. The pick-6 at the goal line was a huge mistake but SU can forgive him for not being at his sharpest as he was suffering from PTSD from all the hits before that. Jones is not a top tier NFL quarterback but he’s a good athlete, can run and takes his share of hits going for a few extra yards. SU says it’s easy to criticize him but definitely not all his fault. No quarterback in the NFL was going to shine last night behind that offensive line.

This Sunday will be a good test vs. a Miami defense that is not top tier. But the season is going to head south very quickly with Buffalo on the schedule to follow.

The Jets meanwhile showed some fight on Sunday night to give their fans some hope. Zach Wilson definitely looked a lot better – at least for one game.

SU will be checking in on the MLB playoffs starting today. I have to say that the Wild Card format is fun and fair to the team with the better records. A Baltimore – Atlanta World Series would be fun this year. However, SU says don’t be surprised if neither team gets there. Funny things happen in October.

While Aaron Boone’s job is no doubt reasonably safe, SU says keep an eye on Don Mattingly. He is the bench coach for the Blue Jays but if Hal wanted to make a move and have the fan base fully behind him, Donnie Baseball is a good choice. Yankee royalty.

Do Baseball Fans Need to Lower Their Standards?

SU knows attendance in MLB is way up this year. Hey, the Yankees continued to draw more than 3 million fans this year for a team that was unwatchable for most of the season. My take is that those tickets were purchased in April, and fans were stuck with them.

The games are faster: good. More steals: good. No more shifts: good. SU is not a major stats guy – I go by feel. I look at batting average, on base percentage and batting average with runners in scoring position (RISP) – which of course YES Network never shows as the numbers are so dismal. For fun this morning, I decided to look up the Yankees’ averages with RISP this year. I can tell that I am truly a dinosaur because it was impossible to find the stats. Apparently, hitting with RISP is no longer a valued stat for the analytics crowd. I am not sure batting average is anymore either.

Here is what SU believes:

  1. From when I was a kid, .260 was the threshold for a good batting average. Guy hits .250? .240? That sucks. And the “Mendoza Line” named after Mario Mendoza was .200 and below that was truly an embarrassment.
  2. I can remember when Yankee hitters in the modern era hit .300. Derek Jeter did it almost every year. Where did the .300 hitters go?
  3. Michael Kay said the other night what a great year Gleyber Torres had for the Yankees. He hit .273 with 25 homeruns and 68 rbis. I suppose among 2nd basemen that is very good but I don’t know. Are they going to pay him $25 million a year now for a new long-term deal? He came to play every day but man, do you ever watch him run out ground balls? You could time him with a sun dial. But that’s OK because it’s a long season and you can’t expect a better to run hard 4 times a game? Sorry, does not cut it for SU. Gleyber is a good guy but SU feels like he is their best trade chip and time to exercise that this off season.
  4. 100 rbis is a big year. Not 70 and not 80 – at least not for a full-time player. I don’t blame all the Yankee hitters this year for their feeble RBI totals as they had no hitters after the #4 spot in the line up. No one on base most of the time.
  5. No-one who hits .200 or .210 had a “good” year. Anthony Volpe was brought up a year too soon but he competed and this year will help him over the long term in his career. He hit .209. He is a good fielder, he’s fast and has big upside. SU has no complaints but let’s not go crazy just yet.

Bottom line: does SU need to recalibrate? Clearly, I am looking at the wrong things when it comes to statistics.

Aaron Judge has been quietly speaking out of late about his feelings re Boone, Cashman, the whole team approach going down to the minor leagues. Will Hal Steinbrenner pay attention? Should he? Judge is under contract until he is in his early 40s. SU likes that he cares but fans should not think that Hal will be making decisions based on his input. No doubt Hal feels he overpaid for Judge and while he is the face of the franchise, he relies on others’ advice.

SU predicts no change at the manager or GM/President of Baseball Operations for the Yankees. But he will insist that the Analytics guys start to preach hitting for average and stop the launch angle stuff where hitters can’t touch 95 mph+ fastballs. And stop with the all right-handed lineups. Gone forever. And stop with the Josh Donaldson trades. For those keeping score at home, his average with RISP in 2023 was .074. And stop anticipating the “bounce back” years. Will Stanton be better in 2024? Of course he will but he won’t stay healthy – no way do you count on that.

The Yankees made me not care in 2023. I never thought that could ever happen. Diehard fan forever. But the players played like they didn’t care so why should I? It was painful watching the youngsters hit .150 or .200 in September but I can live with that in the hope of better times ahead. This will be a multi-year fix – could be no playoffs for a couple of years but at least be entertaining and show that you care. Happy to start there.

24 for 24

SU long-time fave, Novak Djokovic, pulled off his 24th Grand Slam tournament win and dedicated it to his friend and mentor, Kobe Bryant (#24 with the Lakers) with a custom made T-shirt. I thought that was pretty cool. The stats for Djokovic in Grand Slam tournaments over the course of his career are impressive:

  • 36 final appearances in the 72 events that he has played in.
  • And in those 36 finals, he has won 24 times.

SU is not interested in conversations about the GOAT in men’s tennis. There are different eras, different equipment, etc. But for this era of Federer, Nadal, Murray, etc., you have to give him his due. At 36, he is also the oldest winner of the US Open ever. He was clearly gassed in the 2nd set last night which went almost 2 hours. And the reality is that if Medvedev wins that set, we may have had a different outcome. At the highest level in men’s tennis, it often comes down to a handful of points that determines the winner, and that was the case last night. Credit to Djokovic for working his way through that.

Many did not like his reaction to beating Ben Shelton with the “hang up” gesture that Shelton has been using in his wins at the Open this year. SU would prefer that he not do that, and it was surprising to see it. But clearly Shelton has gotten under his skin, and Djokovic was sending a message back. It’s fine to have some edginess in tennis. For Shelton, if you dish it out, you have to accept it may come back right at you. The Gen Z players are of a different breed. Out there on social media and love to let you know just what they are feeling and thinking – all the time. SU says get used to it and form your own opinion. Similar to the stylish home run bat toss and the slow jog around the bases. Not to my liking but it is what it is.

Did the Giants play last night? SU heard the NFL is giving the Giants a mulligan. Clearly, the starters must have missed the team bus and not made it to Met-Life Stadium. Ugh.

Up to 1.1%!

Just for kicks, SU checked the Yankees’ Wild Card playoff probability this morning after their recent hot streak. At 70 – 69, those odds have dramatically increased from less than 1% to 1.1% (see FanGraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds)!! Start printing those playoff tickets!

What is mildly annoying is that the Yankees could have gone to the youngsters weeks ago vs. rolling out the same tired/older line up game after game and expecting a different result. If nothing else, there is more excitement and joy with the team having guys like Dominguez in the line up. And what is truly refreshing for SU is to see left-handed hitters in the line up in Wells (catcher) and Dominguez (switch hitter). After years and years of the all right-handed line up, we actually see some variety out there and hope that a hitter can handle a 97-mph fastball from a right-hander.

SU says that no matter how the team fares down the stretch, both Cashman and Boone will return. Hal is comfortable with who he knows the best. Just can’t see a change happening but could be wrong.

SU has watched a lot of the US Open these last 2 weeks (sorry about that NYC Spectrum subscribers who can’t see it on ESPN due to an ongoing money dispute with Spectrum). Really good stuff and excited to see the US men and women shining for a change in a Major. Good for tennis. SU likes the way the Gen Z players are just different out there and unafraid to be themselves on the court with their mannerisms and actions to drive their social media accounts. Why not? It’s being done in good fun. Coco Gauff is easy to root for, and incredibly athletic and fast. If she can ever master her forehand, look out as her volley is first rate as is her serve. No reason she should be not be playing serve and volley.

Ben Shelton is a crazy story. He has been horrible all year since the quarterfinals at the Australian Open. Basically losing in the 1st round of every tournament. He is fearless and hits with amazing power (149 mph on his serve during a day session). He is built for the big stage. SU does not believe the best of 5 sets format helps him vs. Djokovic but in a best of 3 sets, if he’s hot with his serve, he can beat anyone – even Alcaraz.

Medvedev really has no shot vs. Alcaraz if he insists on staying so far back. He will be drop shot to death in the hot conditions. While Friday will be a bit cooler, with the roof closed, it will still be a sauna.

Having the microphones near the coaches by the court is a great move by ESPN. What’s funny is that the noise level in Ashe is so loud that the players can hardly hear their coaches. The mikes pick it up clearly but in Ashe, the noise reverberates down to the court creating a constant din. Even in the post-match interviews on court, sometimes the players can’t hear the question. It’s NY. It is what it is at the US Open but it’s unlike any of the other majors.

Finally, the NFL kicks off tonight. Hope springs eternal for every team. At least until week #2.

Talking Tennis and Time

So, SU watched a fair amount of the Coco Gauff tennis match at the US Open on Monday night as I was looking forward to the Djokovic match that followed and wanted to make sure I kept tabs on the timing. Now, tennis has a serve clock in place where the server has 25 seconds to serve once the umpire announces the score at the conclusion of the prior point. That gives the server enough time to towel off if necessary and catch their breath after a long point. The towels are in the far corners of the court so there is a bit of a walk involved to get there and back.

The umpires generally don’t announce the score right away to start the clock. Especially after a long point, they may wait even longer. There is definitely discretion involved here. The baseball pitch clock is a bit more clear cut. And baseball umpires just call it plain and simple when the timer goes off.

In the Gauff match, her opponent, Laura Siegemund, who is a veteran and 35 years old, was pushing the limit on the serve clock. She had a very llloooonnnggg service motion, and only had to go into the motion before the clock expired to beat the time – which she did most times. However, there were a number of instances where she didn’t but the umpire just did not call it. As a wily veteran, she saw that and took advantage. It was not until the 3rd set where she finally was assessed a violation. When Gauff was serving, the rule is that the receiver has to play at the server’s pace. She clearly did not do that and was making Gauff wait to serve most of the time.

The bottom line is that the umpire allowed Siegemund to get away with it most of the night in what became a torturously long 3-hour match. She was a good player and played very well – showed some smarts and tactics. SU says it was what it was. However, what was wrong was Siegemund going into her media session and complaining about the NY crowd booing her at the end and getting frustrated with her pace of play during the match. SU says that if you want to employ gamesmanship, then live with the consequences. No whining. No crying. You knew what you were doing.

Djokovic is a serve ball bouncer and he will try and buy time to catch his breath in between points. He often gets the benefit of the clock from the umpires but it is something to watch for as the US Open progresses. The weather forecast for week #2 is going to be hot, and there is no air circulation in Ashe Stadium. As in none – especially if the roof is closed. The A/C is not felt at court level. It will be a factor for Djokovic who does not handle the heat well – at any age – and now especially at 36.

Regarding the time clock, SU would put the clock in effect for the 2nd serve as well. Make it 10 seconds. Pace of play is important and especially in best of 5 set matches. 4-hour matches can be a great thing but not if half the time is players standing around.

SU has spoken.

The End of an Era

Josh Donaldson has been released by the Yankees. Finally. Only about 5 months too late. The trade with the Twins a couple of years ago did move Gary Sanchez off the roster but they had to send Gio Urshela as well which was a bad, bad move. Donaldson was just a bad fit with the Yankees. He is the opposite of what the Yankees have looked for over the years.

Cashman is on a run of bad trades now for several years. Frankie Montas may be the worst one ever as they gave up their higher end pitching prospects to Oakland.

SU says someone will pick up Donaldson for September as you never know when a guy gets hot and pushes hit batting average all the way into Stanton territory (.200). At least the Yankees are pushing in the right direction now.

SU did read on X that there is no way that Boone will be fired after the season according to 4 insiders in the team. No way Cashman is going but they may have to offer up someone for the fans who are very unhappy.

More Yankee Stats

SU stumbled across these Yankee stats in today’s article in the New York Times by Tyler Kepner (who will be going away with the NY Times Sports Section in the months to come. A shame as he is excellent):

  1. Since the All-Star Break in 2022, Giancarlo Stanton has batted .184 and has struck out in 1/3 of his at bats. For the record, he is owed $25 million a year for luxury tax purposes through 2027 (only 4 more years!).
  2. The Yankee farm system is now ranked #21 out of 30 MLB Clubs, with no prospects in the top 75.
  3. In 2023, the Yankees On Base Percentage is .305 (#26 among MLB Clubs) and their team batting average is .230 (only Oakland is lower).

You can actually make the case that their 60-64 record has over-achieved given their offense. How the mighty have fallen.

A Study in Contrasts

SU watched all of the Djokovic – Alcaraz 4-hour final yesterday in temperatures in the high 90s, and I was struck by the level of effort that these guys put out on the court. Djokovic never plays well in hot and humid conditions, and after going up 4-2 in the 1st set, he was clearly impacted by the heat for the next hour. Down 4-2 in the 2nd set, it looked like he was dead man walking, and this would be over soon. But he found another gear, and pushed the match into a 3rd set.

Alcaraz is only 20 but plays without fear. He saved so many break points and even match points with crazy winners from all over the court in the 3rd set. The rivalry now stands at 2 -2, and every match has gone the distance. SU was happy to see that the Cincinnati crowd actually gave Djokovic his due, and there were a fair number of fans rooting for him. Very unusual in the US but the absence of Nadal and Federer seems to allow more fans to root for him in the twilight of his career. You have to give him props at 36 for hanging in there and going toe-to-toe with Alcaraz who will be one of the all-time greats. He has the all-court game, and can even serve and volley like one of the old pros from years gone by. For tennis fans, these are must-see TV events.

One note for the Tennis Channel: it’s not necessary to zero in on the server tossing the ball and then quickly breaking back to the all-court view to watch the actual serve. The human eye cannot adjust in time. Please make the adjustment.

Now the contrast. The Yankees were swept by the Red Sox and their losing streak is now at 8 games. The season is over. The team plays with no passion, no effort. I know in baseball, it can make it look like you are not trying when you are not hitting, but there is no hustle and every game features errors and head-scratching plays. Fan Graphs gives them a less than 1% chance of making the playoffs as a Wild Card. There are obvious moves to make:

  1. You can only bring up the youngsters in the minor leagues who are on the 40-man roster. They need to release some of the guys on the current roster. McKinney and Bauers are nice stories but they are not your keepers for 2024 and beyond. They have minimum salaries – you can let them go and find another home. The Yankees actually have some exciting players ready for a chance to show what they can do for the last 35 games or so. This is a no-brainer.
  2. Don’t fire Aaron Boone now. Not his fault. True, he is not a good in-game manager, and the players no longer respond to him but they’re not going anywhere this year. Do what you want in the off-season. Paging Don Mattingly? David Cone?
  3. Change the entire mindset for the organization. Stop teaching the upper cut swings in the minor leagues, and go back to hitting for average and getting on base. SU does not understand the upper cut swings when pitchers throw 95 – 100 mph high in the zone. How does that even work? Parading .200 hitters to the plate is not interesting, inspiring or watchable. The transition will take years and will require a rebuild of sorts. You have Judge and Cole in their primes, and that may be a problem. Or it allows you to still be competitive to some degree?
  4. SU knows everyone wants to fire Cashman but not going there. If you look back to the July 31st moves last year, they gave up so many minor league players for Frankie Montas (awful) and two other relievers (Trevino and Effross) who have not pitched at all this year. And they traded for Joey Gallo the year before. SU says stop. Just stop. Develop your minor league players. They are cheaper and more fun to watch. Trading for Josh Donaldson is the perfect example of bad decisions. Yes, they did move Gary Sanchez there but Donaldson is the type of high strikeout player no one wants to watch.
  5. The Yankees were the last team to have a player get to 50 RBIs. Just happened yesterday I believe. They have had 49 games where the starting pitcher went 6 innings and gave up 2 runs or less. They are 9 – 40 in those games. SU did the math and that is 40% of total games played to date. Giancarlo Stanton is hitting .200 for the year and cannot run full speed. They are stuck with him until he turns 53, and at a salary of $30 million+, he will not go anywhere. SU has come to grips with that. He will miss 60% of the games each year though, so there is still room to slot in someone else for more than half the season. DJ LeMahieu seems to be past his prime and they also have him for another couple of years. For SU, it is clear that the Braves have the right idea: lock up the younger players with long-term contracts at a younger age. Enough of the long-term deals for older players. We will see how Carlos Rodon turns out for the next 5 years but 2023 has not been a good look. Not everyone can play in NY. And btw, shut down Judge for the year. Let him have his toe operation. Also Stanton. He can’t run and it must also be impacting his swing.

Bottom line: the team needs a rebuild and SU can handle that. I have not been to a game this year and have no interest in going. “Nothing to see here; please move along.” (from The Naked Gun movie). Sums up the 2023 Yankees.

Offensive Offense

The Yankees continue to hit new lows in offensive efficiency and effectiveness this season. The reality is that it’s been this way all season with a lineup of under-achieving hitters, utility infielders playing the outfield (see IKF), outfielders who cannot run at full speed or anything close to it (see Stanton) and veterans not playing up to the numbers on the back of their baseball cards. For SU, it has gotten to the point where you almost root for the ineptitude as it is entertaining in a sad way.

Yankee games are no longer fun to watch. Of late, SU has been binging on The Diplomat on Netflix (very good), and only switching to the Yankees when they are up. I do keep tabs on mlb.com. Btw, it’s easier toggling between Netflix and YES than it is if the game is on Apple TV or Amazon.

The Yankees had successive games with Angel Hernandez and Laz Diaz behind the plate. Those two plus CB Buckner really should not be allowed to do home plate umpiring anymore. There should be some type of penalty for being that bad. The silver lining is that they will accelerate the move to electronic umpiring. SU says bring it on asap. Look how good tennis is, and even FIFA uses it on goal reviews. It’s just not enjoyable to watch the bad calls. For the Yankees, it wasn’t aimed against them – these guys are equal opportunity bad umpires. But it hurts the quality of the game and in a time where hits are at a premium in baseball, it makes it that much harder to get one.

Did you see the Orioles suspended their announcer (or at least pulled him from the air for a week now) for displaying stats on the Orioles’ historic ineptitude vs. the Rays in Tampa? Apparently, ownership did not like seeing that. How dumb is that? On Yankee broadcasts, there would be minutes of silence in between pitches as what else can you talk about? MLB has to fix this and fast. Embarrassing.

The US Women’s team crashed out in the World Cup. They just were not that good this year – plain and simple. No offense. SU even got up 5:30 am on Sunday to watch. So ends my World Cup viewing for this year. Of course, certain politicians felt the need to pile on after they were eliminated. Really?

College sports needs to go fully professional and announce themselves as the 6th major pro sports League. First, we had NILs and now, the major conferences are becoming really major conferences. The Big Ten is going to be the Big Twenty, and the PAC-12 is the PAC-2 and soon to be the PAC-0. That leaves us with the Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and the ACC as the major conferences. Not ideal for the “student – athletes” driving their NIL-fueled SUVs who have to travel cross-country a lot for games. It is just not about education anymore (even a little) but making money. SU is not loving this.

I have to say men’s tennis is quite good these days. So many high quality match-ups on the Tennis Channel. SU has been watching (along with 12 other people worldwide) Tiafoe who is a great entertainer and the next US hope for a major championship. He keeps improving but needs to figure out how to play against the guys that slice it low to him like Dimitrov. He’s been exposed of late. An easy guy to root for and he has quite the following. SU is not sure he can maintain the focus on tennis as he will be in demand more and more.