SU says we are due for a competitive Super Bowl after a lackluster few weeks of playoff football.  Sure, Packers – Dallas was an instant classic but that was pretty much it.  I must say that home field was certainly important this post-season and being the home team on Conference Championship Sunday was worth a lot per usual.  SU’s predictions went down in flames but hey, nothing ventured nothing gained.  Actually, would my original Super Bowl prediction of winner of the Packers/Giants game vs. the Steelers qualify as an “alternative fact?”

You have to admire the Pats who win easily without Gronk and don’t miss a beat offensively.  They are truly a plug and play team – just slide in the next guy.  Tom Brady is clearly a superstar and possibly GOAT at his position but the sustained track record of this team is well beyond anyone else.  No doubt Brady is hoping to win the Super Bowl and accept the trophy from Commissioner Roger Goodell.  Now that would be must see TV.  SU’s research department is already running various scenarios but I am feeling an over/under of 79 points.  Let’s hope an Alabama – Clemson game breaks out in 2 weeks.

Jeremy Lin out another 3 – 5 weeks as he re-aggravated his hamstring in rehab.  Unreal.  Dude will end up missing almost the entire season.  This has put a major damper on SU’s NBA viewing.  I did catch the end of the San Antonio – Cleveland game where the Spurs won in OT.  The Spurs are like the Patriots: well coached; well run and they slide in new players into the system every year.  And so many assists!  SU kept looking for the jab step, isolation offensive sets but I guess Coach Popovich has not read the Mike Woodson Offensive Playbook (er pamphlet).

The Carmelo – Phil Jackson soap opera plays on and on as the Knicks continue to find ways to lose in the last minute.  SU is convinced that Derrick Rose has a maximum number of passes per game built into his contract (no more than 9) which means at the end of the game, there is just no way he is passing on those drives.  He will get his contract for next season (mission accomplished this year) but it won’t be in NY.

Tennis fans, check out the men’s draw at the Australian Open.  Roger Federer has a path to the finals as does Rafa Nadal.  Now that would be a throwback.  Given Fed’s record against Nadal, no doubt he is hoping for a loss on that side of the draw.  Men’s tennis shaping up to have a great year.  Still plenty of room on Tennis Channel for you to join me.

So, Ivan Rodriguez has made the Hall of Fame.  While he never failed a PED test, there were always rumors and his body size shrank about 30% late in his career.  He was clearly deserving based on the stats, as I-Rod was considered the best at his position for a number of years.

It’s clear that the voters are going to now drop their resistance to suspected PED users like Bonds, Sosa, and Clemens.  Although he’s not mentioned very often, Mark McGwire should also be included in the conversation.  All of these players were at the top of the game for many years and have the stats to back it up.  And if that’s the case, then SU says there is no reason to not allow A-Rod in as well.  They all used to varying degrees and it’s impossible to start playing some fine line of who did, who didn’t and who maybe did.  We won’t know for a few years for A-Rod but SU believes once the others get the votes, it will be difficult to keep him out despite the suspension and all the rest.

Nice Knicks win last night.  SU turned it on in the 2nd half and while there was one 3rd quarter stretch where Melo shot every time, it was great to see a balanced attack.  The Knicks are now 5-0 when Noah doesn’t play.  Rose had a great offensive game but it’s becoming very clear that he has no interest in passing.  Some of his passes on his drives are literally to no-one on the perimeter.  But he is a great finisher around the basket.  I know, it’s only one game but if KP moves to the 5-position and maybe, just maybe, Carmelo starts to pass a little more, this team can score a lot of points and be a tough out come playoff time in a weak Eastern Conference.

SU fave, Novak Djokovic, was ousted last night in the 2nd round of the Australian Open in 5 sets to a journeyman player.  Since winning last year’s French Open, he has not been the same player.  As he nears 3o, Djokovic is much more philosophical and you can see he has lost the edge.  SU believes that for the top, top players, winning and losing against the best comes down to a few points and being bold on those few points.  Federer lost that about 5 years ago and while his game looks the same, he tends to lose matches because he has lost the nerve.  SU would now put Djokovic in that category – he’s just not going for shots at those times anymore and is playing for his opponent to miss.  This is a great time for Andy Murray to dominate but SU says keep an eye on Milos Raonic who I think is ready to take the next step.  I am still hopeful Djokovic will find his way back but I am not feeling it at the moment.

SU says enough of the Knicks drama with Carmelo and Phil Jackson.  It’s not interesting.  Flashback: he took the money to stay in New York.  Jackson had the opportunity to move the team in a different direction but decided to give him the new max contract.  End of story.  He is not going anywhere, he has kids in school here and his wife likes it here.  Stop the rumors and stop the conversation.

More importantly, Jeff Hornacek has indicated that he will likely move Porzingis to center now.  Now, this is interesting and will make the team better.  You lose Noah’s passing ability but he is a bad fit for this team and this style offense.  Why?  Because the point guard, Derrick Rose, is really a short 2-guard.  This dude has no interest in passing the ball.  SU has watched enough games now.  He is an excellent driver and can create his own shot.  But he is a shoot first player and when paired with Melo who is also shoot first, well you have a boring team.  SU watched the Golden State Warriors the other night.  Wow.  They all make the extra pass and they all benefit from that style of play.  That is what the best teams do.  They pass the ball and then cut and move.  What a concept.  But let’s move Porzingis to the 5 position and see what happens.  They are still just a few games out of the playoffs and SU still likes the young guys on the roster.

SU’s crack research department dug up this career stats comparison:

• Adrian Dantley: 24.3 points per game
• Carmelo Anthony: 24.8 points per game

Dantley was a prolific scorer who finally won a championship late in his career.  A shoot first, isolation style player. Anthony is just like him.  And he will not win a championship in NY and will need to be traded to get there.

SU lost some respect for Antonio Brown on the Steelers.  He embarrassed his coach, his team and himself.  For the fans, it’s great to have the behind-the-scenes look but it needs to be done in the open as they do with the HBO series each season, not in secret.  This is an unneeded distraction going into the championship round.  Btw, SU’s Super Bowl prediction of the winner of the Green Bay/Giants game vs. Pittsburgh is still in play.

SU caught the 2nd half of the Wisconsin – Michigan game last night.  Michigan, which never fouls, had 9 fouls in the first 6 minutes of the 2nd half.  I am not going to whine about the refs but when you talk about Wisconsin’s great home court record, one might think that the refs could be a factor.  If Wisconsin is the best team in the Big Ten this year, you have to conclude that this is a down year for the conference.  SU says watch out for Northwestern – could be their year to make the NCAAs.  Michigan is NIT bound.

And with that, we need to start getting excited about pitchers and catchers reporting next month.  There are still a lot of free agents out there unsigned and waiting for the call.  SU continues to monitor Cashman and the Yankees which are going into 2017 with a lot of youngsters in the rotation and bullpen.  I am guessing the plan is go all in for 2018 but if they commit to the youngsters this year, could be a fun season.  For SU, baseball cannot come soon enough.

Odell Beckham Jr. is a really good player.  And some day, he may even be great.  And some day, he may even grow up.  SU says there is a stronger probability that he becomes great than if he grows up.  He came up small yesterday in the biggest game of the year and he had his chances.

Sure, it was cold but the same conditions existed for everyone out there.  Of the 3 dropped passes, one was an easy catch and would have kept the opening drive going.  Big play.  The 2nd one was difficult but hey, that’s why you are paid the big bucks.  SU says catch the ball.  The 3rd one was also difficult but Eli put it right there and it would have been a long gain to keep things going.  You give Shepherd a pass as he is a rookie and has played well all year.  He dropped a TD pass but you can’t rely on rookies.  OBJ likes the spotlight and this was his moment.

In terms of growing up, we don’t need to see you punch a hole in the wall or bang your head against a steel door to know that you care.  Everyone in the locker room cares; they just don’t take it out on the room’s structure.  SU says it reminds me of Cam Newton who also knows the camera is always on him and plays to it.  Both a are great physical talents, and both still need to grow up.

For the record, Aaron Rodgers is great – plain and simple.  The Giants did well blitzing him in the 1st half but in the 2nd, either they adjusted or the Giants stopped coming.  The net result was no pass rush and allowing Rodgers way too much time to scan the field in the pocket.  Combine that with the Giants’ punter unable to kick the ball with any height or distance in the cold and you had the Packers starting every drive in Giants’ territory from the late 2nd quarter on.

The Giants need an offensive lineman or two and a pass rusher this off season.  They are not far away and there is a sense of urgency as Eli is not getting any younger.  He was decent yesterday – especially in the 1st half.  But you need at least some semblance of a running game to compete in the playoffs and they just didn’t have one this year.

Four blowouts in week 1 and all home team wins.  SU had high hopes until late 2nd quarter but the Hail Mary was a back breaker.  And if the Packers’ tight end had held on to the pass at the 10 yard line with 6 seconds left and no timeouts, the clock would have just run out.  So it goes.

SU prides itself on going with its gut feel.  As we near completion of the Steelers – Dolphins game, we now see that the home team will have won all 3 of the first three playoff games this weekend.  SU’s theory, based on absolutely no research (SU research staff is allowed to have weekends and evenings off in the spirit of work/life balance), is that it’s rare to have all 4 home teams win on the first weekend of the NFL playoffs.

As a result, SU is feeling more confident about the Giants’ win today over Green Bay.  I would note that several long-time SU subscribers have also weighed in predicting a Giants win (see T. Potter, M. Hertz, A. Grossman) so there are definitely positive vibes floating around.  Stay tuned.

Most of you likely missed it, but yesterday SU fave Novak Djokovic beat Andy Murray in the finals of the ATP event in Qatar in a 3-set, 3-hour match.  High quality tennis early in the season.  These two guys are head and shoulders above the rest of the field right now and they will likely be facing off in multiple finals this year.  It’s good stuff and SU says you join me and the 6 other people watching on the Tennis Channel to check it out.

SU wanted to respond to active SU commenter, S. Goldman, and his recent comments on the Baseball Hall of Fame voting.  It seems that now that Bud Selig is likely to get voted into the HOF, many sports writers feel it’s appropriate to vote in the PED users who have had the numbers but not the votes due to their transgressions (to quote Clyde Frazier).  Guys like Sosa, Clemens, Bonds, McGuire are likely to start getting closer to have the votes.  In the past, I have been against them being admitted but I must say that I have softened on that point.  The whole sport was cheating and we may as well put them in.  I still would not vote for Clemens or Bonds as I feel they went to great lengths to lie and cover up but the others can go if they are deemed worthy.

Finally, I know most of you are loyal Knick fans and will go down with the ship this year.  Carmelo Anthony has now said he is playing with a chronically sore shoulder (this is what 30 shots a night will do to you) which will not help unless he decides to take some time off (at which point I am back in).  But SU says check out the Nets where Michigan grad, Caris LaVert, is getting more minutes and is very entertaining to watch. Once Jeremy Lin returns, I will be spending much more time with the Nets.  They play hard every night, lose often but I like following the young guys and players that pass.

The fans have been clamoring for SU to put out its fearless, NFL playoff predictions.  Well, the time has come.  A few thoughts:

• There is a lot of parity among the playoff contenders this year.  New England is the closest thing to being the clear favorite but you have to figure the loss of Gronkowski will show up at some point.
• As mentioned earlier in the week, many are expecting Green Bay to run the table but SU says not so fast.
• Injuries to quarterbacks have really hurt Oakland and Miami.  SU feels especially badly for the Raiders who had a great season.  I thought they might make a run at the Pats but when you are starting your 3rd string QB and on top of it he comes from Michigan State, well that is a lot to overcome.
• Aside from the Giants- Packers game this weekend, the others are not exactly must see TV.
• Tony Romo is going to have a moment in this year’s  playoffs.

NFC

As predicted earlier in the week, the Giants are going to upset Green Bay 23 – 21 on Sunday.  I do feel that Eli plays his best in the playoffs and his experience and ability to call his own plays in large part makes a difference.  Can they run the table?  Why not?  My preference would be that they avoid Dallas as it’s hard to beat the same team 3 times in one year (although they did beat Washington 3 times in the 1986-87 run).  Atlanta can score at will but they also have a way of blowing close games late.  SU will take the homer pick and have the Giants in the Super Bowl due to the lack of that dominant team in the NFC.

AFC

The money pick is New England but SU is feeling the Steelers.  Ben Roethlisberger has a way of making plays and while their defense is suspect, they can put the points up on the board.

Super Bowl

The Giants over the Steelers in a tight game 21-20.  I will say that the winner of the Giants – Packers game on Sunday will win the Super Bowl.

Feel free to weigh in with your picks.  Put your pride on the line.

SU’s research staff has been running various models of the extended weather forecast for Green Bay for next Sunday.  The good news is the temperature will be in the mid-teens with sunny weather and light winds.  That should more or less eliminate that element from the equation as being a major factor this game.

SU liked that McAdoo played his regulars yesterday both on offense and defense for much of the game.  True: in the NFL, you are rolling the dice but they needed to play a solid game to gain some momentum heading into the playoffs.  Green Bay is the hot team now and everyone’s pick to run the table.   On the other hand, the Giants have had post-season success there in their Super Bowl runs.  Their secondary is as good as its been in recent memory.  They still lack a pass rush without blitzing and that will be a key factor.  Rogers is a magician back there buying time and you just can’t let him sit there scanning the field.  That will be key #1 in determining the outcome for the game.

The second issue is whether the Giants can muster any type of consistent running attack.  Perkins showed some signs yesterday and SU was encouraged.  But the passing game continues to struggle.  OBJ is the obvious target but Green Bay will take that away as much as possible.  They really miss having a tight end who can consistently get open and catch the ball down the field.  That is one piece missing this year and must be a priority for the draft or free agency in the off season.  Eli will have to be on his game and not make the killer turnovers.  He has shown that ability in the post-season in the past even coming off regular season games where he has been sloppy.

And key #3 is the Giants’ defense.  They are really good this year and might be the best unit of any playoff team this year.  You can probably play the field position game to some degree relying on them to hold their ground.

The Green Bay defense does not scare me.  I think the Giants have a decent chance here and will surprise the experts coming away with a 23 – 21 win.  Others care to weigh in?

SU had to share this box score line from last night’s Atlanta – San Antonio game for Tim Hardaway Jr.: 31 minutes off the bench, 11 – 13 from the field including 6-7 from 3-point range for a total of 29 points including a game tying 3-ball to send the game into OT.  Makes me proud.  Too bad he could not co-exist with Melo in NY and they had to move him.  A fun guy to root for and is coming into his own this season.

SU was at last night’s Orange Bowl with long-time subscribers L. Levine, B. Levine and S. Levine, and one of our newest subscribers, J. Silver.  Bowl games are always a crapshoot.  The long layoff between the last regular season game and the bowl date can be as long as 5 – 6 weeks.  College football teams are used to playing every week and not all teams handle the long layoff well.  Michigan looked like it was moving in slow-motion against a faster, more athletic Florida State team.  But SU gives them a lot of credit: despite being unable to generate anything offensively for much of the game, they hung in and made plays in a wild 4th quarter to even take the lead with under 2 minutes left.  They almost had no business even being in the game having given up so many long plays.

SU’s key insights from the evening:

• Bowl games are unique where you have large numbers of fans from both teams intermingled in the stands.  Sure, you have sections allocated to each team but there are many places where opposing fans are crammed in side by side.  No regular season game has that dynamic.  It makes for a special atmosphere (as long as no one is killing each other).
• There is a “fun factor” at the college level.  Sure, fans will tail gate and come into the stadium feeling toasty but the meanness that exists at the NFL level is generally taken down several notches at college games.  SU uses the men’s room test to validate.  When you are on line in the men’s room at a college game, it’s generally a polite gathering where people will chit-chat about the game and no-one is screaming and cursing.  At an NFL game?  Drunken men bellowing and just acting inappropriately making things uncomfortable.  Same thing in the stands.  SU says get a grip: it’s sports and just because you paid a lot for your ticket does not give you the right to act like an a-hole.  Do you agree?
• There has been much written of late about top football prospects taking a pass on playing in the bowl games as they want to be healthy for the draft.  It’s an interesting dilemma.  The school gave you the free ride scholarship and the game is on the schedule.  But SU also gets it from the prospect’s perspective where an injury in what is mostly a meaningless, exhibition type game can cost you millions of dollars.  Last night, Jabrill Peppers of Michigan who will likely declare for the draft as a junior sat out with a strained hamstring.  He was clearly upset after the game and desperately wanted to play.  SU hopes he will return for one more year but given the violence of football and the likelihood of injury, you could blame him for opting out.  Michigan All-American tight end Jake Butt played his final game and suffered an MCL or ACL injury that will likely cost him come draft time.  Just a tough call for these guys.  SU can’t say there is a right or wrong answer on this one.  Thoughts?
• Michigan lost 3 games this year by a total of 5 points.  Jim Harbaugh is a great coach but you can make the case that he is not money in the close games.  While much of the focus is on what happens down the stretch of games, SU maintains that games are won and lost much earlier – on drives in the 1st half that go 3 and out and put more strain on the defense to keep the game in order.  When games come down to one play or a referee’s late call, it’s aggravating but you need to look at the game in total.  SU is very mature (clearly).
• Finally, SU’s career record in Michigan bowl games drops to 2-2.  The list includes Michigan’s OT Sugar Bowl win with Denard Robinson leading the way and the best live sporting event I have ever witnessed which was the 35-31 Capital One Bowl win over Florida with Tim Tebow at QB and Urban Meyer coaching in Lloyd Carr’s final game at Michigan.  What a game.

A happy and healthy new year to the thousands of members of the SU intergalactic subscriber base.  Be safe!

Grayson Allen of Duke has been channeling his inner Christian Laettner by tripping opposing players on the court. He is certainly a solid player who has NBA aspirations but he will first have to overcome his anger management issues.  After his 3rd tripping move in the last year, Coach K today announced an indefinite suspension.  To be honest, despite calls for the suspension from many writers and commentators, I was surprised that the coach actually pulled the trigger.  That’s not been his MO over the years.  He, of course, runs a stellar program but SU has never viewed him as the strict disciplinarian when it comes to these types of incidents.  Actually, no big-time college coach has that reputation.  I suppose we can hope that Allen will learn from this but it’s likely that this is a bigger personality issue with him and won’t be solved by a few games off the court.

Did you see that former NBA coach George Karl has written a tell all book?  I guess that must mean he no longer wants to coach an NBA team.  A few tidbits from espn.com:

“Carmelo was a true conundrum for me in the six years I had him,” Karl wrote in “Furious George,” according to an advance copy obtained by the New York Post. “He was the best offensive player I ever coached. He was also a user of people, addicted to the spotlight and very unhappy when he had to share it.

“He really lit my fuse with his low demand of himself on defense. He had no commitment to the hard, dirty work of stopping the other guy.”  Karl coached Anthony from January 2005 to February 2011, when Anthony had his demand for a trade fulfilled and joined the Knicks. Karl said the trade was “a sweet release for the coach and the team, like popping a blister.” 

The coach was also critical of J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin, comparing those two, along with Anthony, to “the spoiled brats you see in junior golf and junior tennis.”

Karl wrote that Smith, who is now with the Cavaliers, had “a huge sense of entitlement, a distracting posse, his eye always on the next contract and some really unbelievable shot selection.”

SU says: “Shocking!  Who would have suspected these things?”  While much of this was probably true about the younger Carmelo, I have seen enough behavior change this year to think he is mellowing as he sees the finish line of his career.  Not every game, mind you, but here and there.  And I have always liked JR Smith and Kenyon Martin.  SU says that if you are an effective and winning NBA coach, you get guys like this to play for you and play hard.  Karl has a good career record and his Denver roster was very, very good.  He is also headstrong which no doubt didn’t help him with the star players.

Finally, SU caught some of the UConn women’s game last night against Nebraska.  They continue to amaze and impress with how hard they play for 40 minutes with what is basically a 7-player roster.  They are still the most enjoyable game to watch on tv.

There are a lot of things to like about Joakim Noah.  He plays with fire, has a lot of energy and is all about the team.  He is a pass-first type of player which in the NBA puts you in a 1% category of all players.  But on this Knick team as currently configured, he is not a good fit.

The basic problem is that when he is on the court with Porzingis, he plays the 5 and KP is at the 4.  So, on defense, Porzingis has to run all over the court and picks up fouls against smaller and more mobile players.  At the 5, he can help out more as a rim protector and given the lack of big-time post players in the NBA, he rarely has to cover scorers at that position.  The other problem is that on offense, with Melo, KP and Noah on the court, there is just not a lot of ball movement and things get clogged up.

Noah can be traded starting tomorrow (I believe free agents who were signed in the off-season can be moved starting December 15th), and some team will see value in him.  SU says make a move and while you’re at it, maybe some team would like Carmelo.

Last night, Hornacek put in some odd line up of bench players and Porzingis in the 4th quarter and they went on a 19-4 run to take the lead.  Rookie Ron Baker was playing the point and, of course, the ball moved, the players ran the court and KP was the focal point of the offense.  This dude is just so good and so versatile.  Unfortunately, he got into foul trouble as the guards could not keep Bledsoe out of the paint.  Btw, Bledoe is really good.

Anyway, 4 minutes left in the game, and you knew what was going to happen.  You knew it.  Anthony, who was having a bad game, and shot 3 for 15 overall, became the focal point of the offense and the ball stopped moving, they broke out the Mike Woodson offense, and eventually lost in OT.  SU was impressed with Phoenix which down the stretch double-teamed Melo when he got the ball.  I do not understand why other teams don’t do this as he is not a willing passer.  I know, I know – he’s a “great passer.”  Only when he wants to be and he doesn’t want to be one most of the time.

It’s just a loss on a long West Coast road trip.  Rose was out with back spasms again (not a good sign by the way and needs watching) but every night you see how good Porzingis can be and he is entertaining.  Build around him and put a roster together that takes advantage of his skills.  SU sounds like a broken record but the Knicks will never become an elite team until you move Anthony and change the style.  This team has some nice pieces and is fun to watch in stretches. O’Quinn is a nice player off the bench and should get more minutes. Note to Phil Jackson: we are all waiting.

The Jim Harbaugh rumors to the LA Rams just do not make any sense.  He is already paid a lot at Michigan and the reality is that he will have an NFL job waiting for him whenever he wants to go back.  At least a third of coaches get fired every off season.  Harbaugh who is unfiltered told his team that “this talk is coming from our enemies”, and said there are three coaches who are telling recruits that he is leaving to help them land those athletes.  SU is guessing it’s: Michigan State; Ohio State; and Penn State but I could be wrong.  He does make it interesting.  He won’t leave until he wins something like a Big Ten championship.  He hasn’t won anything yet and is coaching the LA Rams the dream job?