All posts by HowardLevineSU

Regression to the Mean

True Yankee fans knew this was coming. The first half of the season was just going too well. Players were generally healthy and the starters were having one quality start after another even without Gerrit Cole. The bullpen, filled with new faces, was leading MLB. The roster had no bench but with Soto and Judge playing every day, and Verdugo exceeding expectations, you did not need to score that many runs. SU believes the record peaked at 48-19 or somewhere in that ballpark. A 71.6% winning pace which would translate to an overall record of 116 wins for the season.

David Cone always talks about “regression to the mean” and SU is a believer in that. The Yankee starters have mostly all gone cold now and the bullpen is very unreliable. Clay Holmes is not a true closer apparently and there are so many no names in there now. SU’s preseason over/under for the Yankees was 90 wins and that is starting to look a bit better as near the trade deadline. Jasson Dominguez has started his rehab assignment coming off an oblique injury and he might be a huge difference maker in the outfield for the final 2 months. He would inject some needed excitement and youth into the lineup. Ben Rice started well but is now under .200. DJ LeMahieu is running on fumes – just another bad long-term contract along the lines of Stanton.

Stanton becomes a key guy returning on Monday with no rehab stint. They just need someone to hit behind Judge. SU wonders why any team ever pitches to Judge? No one will hurt you coming up behind him in the lineup. Verdugo’s regression has been a killer. You figure he will bounce back but hard to know.

Cole has been up and down and hard to know if he is truly healthy. Gleyber Torres is showing signs of life but no doubt he is pressing in his walk year. The issue seems to be that there is very little on the way in the minors for the near term. SU does not believe this is Boone’s fault. If you look at the roster, there are no pieces to move in and out of this lineup.

The frustrating part is that there are no super teams out there for this season in the AL. Baltimore is better but still young. You have Soto for one year and it’s hard to imagine Hal will give him Judge type money for a long-term deal. So, this year is your best shot. But the roster needs a lot of upgrades. SU says watch the 3rd baseman on Tampa Bay, Issac Paredes, for a trade. The Yankees are desperate for an upgrade offensively and he would fill a big hole for them.

Prediction: Cashman goes all in with moves between now and Tuesday evening. Mostly relievers and position players – not starters. LeMahieu will be designated for assignment – and will be picked up by someone contending.

Thoughts? Is the play to just qualify for the playoffs and see what happens? Or do you really try and go for it? The next couple of days will be interesting.

Why is Running Hard to First Base Hard?

Gleyber Torres was finally exposed last night by the YES Network. Now, keep in mind that YES never highlights Yankee players who are struggling, not performing, in a slump, etc. Never in a graphic on the screen. SU believes that Gleyber is a good guy and was an excellent player a few years ago early in his career. But he bulked up one off season to hit more home runs and has been a shadow of his former self since then. He is a free agent after this season and has been pretty awful all year.

SU’s beef with Gleyber is that he does not hustle running to first base on ground balls. Never. Typically, no one says anything about it. Last night in the 8th inning, after Judge’s grand slam, Gleyber hit a slow ground ball to shortstop. You thought initially if he ran hard, could be a close play at first base. Nope. He was about 2/3 of the way there when the throw arrived. Incredibly, after the commercial break, YES showed the replay of him running – er make that jogging – and there was some brief discussion about it. On the post-game show, they called him out on it. SU does not know if Boone commented but this has been going on all season. If you are hitting .300, you can get away with it. He is clearly pressing in his walk year. But it’s a really bad look. Just run hard. Derek Jeter was not the same player late in his career and he hit a million ground balls – always ran hard to first base. You know he was frustrated but he played the right way.

As noted last week, the Yankees are in trouble. The bullpen is a bunch of no name guys now with all of the injuries. The bench was already non-existent and the annual Stanton injury comes at a bad time. Dominguez would have been called up to replace him but he has an oblique injury and will be out 8 weeks. The Yankees signed JD Davis (DFA’d by Oakland – that should say it all) and he won’t be the answer. LeMahieu is hitting .170 with no extra base hits. Great first half record but the AL East is going to tighten up now as Boston is playing well.

The challenge for Cashman is that about 2/3 of the MLB Clubs are in the Wild Card chase and will not be sellers. So, fewer choices for upgrades at the trade deadline.

The Mets are on the upswing – looking so much better now. SU is glad to see that and they are an easy team to root for.

SU is not optimistic about the Yankees. Brian Cashman will be earning his salary in the next 5 weeks.

Yankee Injury Report: Starting to Sound Like Years Past

So, we start with the good news: the return of Gerrit Cole on Wednesday to start against Baltimore. Ok, that is it.

Now, today’s injury report: reliever Ian Hamilton goes on the IL with a lat strain – out 3 – 4 weeks. Cody Poteet who has been the 5th starter has a right tricep strain and will not throw for 1 – 2 weeks. Jasson Dominguez who is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery is awaiting results from his MRI.

SU says that the bullpen is the team’s greatest weakness and they were already not that reliable. Yes, they have the best record in the AL and all that but the Yankees are below .500 vs. the AL East. They have feasted on the bad teams in MLB this year and there are many that fall into that category. Judge and Soto have carried them with assists from Volpe and Verdugo. The rest of the lineup – not so much. Starting pitching has been lights out and you know that will not continue all year. For SU, the goal has to be the World Series this season and I believe the bullpen is going to hold them back in the end.

Something to watch for.

Are the Yankees That Good and the Mets That Bad?

The answers are: Maybe – at least for 2024; and man, could be.

Let me start with the Yankees. Great record, crazy good starting pitching and a bullpen that seems to be better collectively than they are as individual relievers. SU is not quite sure how they have been that good all year. And spare me the comments on being an overly entitled Yankee fan. I get the record is outstanding.

The issue for me is that the American League feels historically weak this year. Sure, Baltimore is really good (took 3 out of 4 from the Yankees) but then what? Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota – those are the powerhouse teams? We are only 1/3 of the way through the season and some teams may emerge at some point. But for SU, the Yankees’ 39 – 19 record is a direct reflection of the competition this year – not necessarily their greatness. Soto is a huge difference maker and Hal is already pleading poverty about signing him long-term after this season. The only saving grace is who else can afford him? You have to figure the Dodgers are tapped out now. Maybe the Red Sox? Cubs? Giants? Or will Steve Cohen go all in? SU can definitely see the Mets outbid the Yankees for Soto. Makes a lot of sense.

Clark Schmidt is now on the IL but Gerrit Cole may be back later in June so that takes care of itself. LeMahieu is back and that is big as he can play 1st base also. Gleyber Torres is either feeling the pressure of being a free agent after this year or his early years were just an aberration. There is no way the Yankees will re-sign him. SU note to Gleyber: please just run hard to 1st base. Once in a while – maybe once a week.

SU believes that Cashman will not stand pat at the trade deadline and will pick up some bench players and a reliever. They have plenty to make the playoffs – question is can they beat the Orioles in the post-season. The reality is that the best teams are in the National League: Phillies; Dodgers; and the Braves. Odd year.

Which brings me to the Mets. SU actually watched some of their games this week vs. the Dodgers. First of all, the Dodgers are not playing that well right now but they have some star players. The Mets were near .500 a couple of weeks ago but man, they look lifeless on offense right now. And when Ottavino is your closer well, you have big problems late in the game trying to hold a lead. They may get back to .500 if their schedule gets easier but they are not a good team. Sure, they have had some key injuries but this is a mediocre team that will be in a rebuild for a while. You have to figure they will be sellers at the deadline and will look to start over in 2025.

SU has been watching the Ranger playoff games. Very exciting. Florida is tough and seem to dominate the action for long stretches. The Rangers will be fortunate to get this to a game 7 but who knows? If you can get into OT, anything can happen.

The NBA finals will be interesting. The stars will be out. Boston is the clear favorite and they have the better roster but these games should be entertaining. The Timberwolves are not quite ready – they are probably one veteran short to getting over the hump.

Wait Till Next Year

The feel good New York Knicks (at least for Knick fans) just ran out of players this past week. At some point, you don’t have the players to make a stand. They fought hard to the end and you have to tip your hat to guys like Josh Hart who no doubt played through a tremendous amount of pain from his abdomen injury, and OG Anunoby who had his Willis Reed moment in making his first 2 shots but then just did not have the mobility from his hamstring to go any further.

This was a great playoff run against two high quality opponents in Philadelphia and Indiana. The Pacers shot close to 70% for much of the game yesterday and that was the difference. Of course, Brunson breaking his shooting hand in the 2nd half sealed the deal. But they were playing with 4 guards on the court most of the time and took this series to 7 games. As always, SU has a few observations and thoughts:

  1. SU is rarely bothered by any sports announcers. I mean I can no longer listen to Dick Vitale, who, although a great guy, is just all schtick now. John Sterling had the same affect on me for the last 10 years. But for the NBA playoffs, Doris Burke finally got to me. SU has always liked her in past years but enough of Tyrese Halliburton “playing with such joy.” This guy is a top tier trash talker – that’s what he is. Great shooter – at least in this series – but does not stop talking out there. I like JJ Reddick and would prefer to hear much more from him and Mike Breen.
  2. TJ McConnell is a veteran NBA player – 32 years old. He is the kind of guy you want on your team. Apparently, he is a free agent. Perfect fit for the Knicks and their style of play and MSG fans would take to him big time.
  3. SU will be curious if the refs allow the Pacer guards to be all “handsy” and overly physical with the Celtic guards in this next series. Their physical treatment of Brunson was a joke. SU cannot remember any other NBA top tier player being manhandled like that. Can you imagine anyone putting their hands on LeBron? LeBron would dislocate his shoulder flailing his arms for foul calls on every possession. The constant bumping of Brunson as he started to move towards the basket should be called a foul every time. The Pacer guards dare the refs to do just that and once you see that is will be allowed, well why stop? Something to watch this next series.
  4. Older Knick fans like SU will recall the 1968 – 69 Knicks’ team that pushed the Celtics in the playoffs until Walt Frazier pulled his hamstring muscle and played heavily taped in the deciding game 6 in Boston. But that season was a major step forward that set them up for their championship run in 1969-70. Sometimes you need to fail in order to be ready to go to the next level. This year does feel like that for the Knicks.
  5. A lot of respect for Myles Turner. He had so many blocked shots against the undersized Knicks at the rim in this series. For SU, he plays the game the right way. SU is not a fan of the trash talkers – it’s why Brunson is so likable. I know the NBA is a trash talking League now (oh sorry, players “playing with such joy”) and that is why players who are different really stand out.
  6. No more replays on foul calls. Just stop. And how about technical fouls for players that wildly gesticulate over every non-call? Just stop and get back on defense.

Bottom line for Knick fans: great season, gritty team and you can’t wait for next season. Now, the reality in the NBA is that it’s hard to keep teams together and there will be changes. But the core will be back in Brunson, Hart and DiVincenzo, and it’s up to management now to not screw it up. You have to sign Anunoby – he is a difference maker on defense and plays with a quiet confidence. Siakam was a killer once OG went out with his hamstring injury for the last 5 games. The Knicks had no one to match up with him.

For SU, it’s on to baseball and the Yankees are quietly having a great year. Of course, no injuries so far so there is that but the starting pitching has far exceeded what you would expect. Are they really 33 – 15?

Anyway, your thoughts on the Knicks?

Appreciate This Knicks Team

Veteran sports fans who follow multiple professional or even college sports teams have to appreciate what the Knicks are doing this season. You won’t necessarily see it again – it’s just the nature of team sports and how people play the game. For example, the Yankees showed so little passion and fire in 2023 that SU finally stopped watching games the last 2 months of the season. Unheard of. It took so much disinterest from players not hustling, not running hard to 1st base and mindlessly hitting balls into the defense to get me to that point. Actually never happened before for me.

The Knicks this year just play hard every minute, every game. They don’t hang their heads when there are injuries or they’re not shooting well for stretches of the game. The defensive effort is still there. Sure, it’s coaching and Thibodeau has done a masterful job with these players. But it’s really about the players and collectively caring about one another and playing the game the right way all the time. You watch Josh Hart get close to 20 rebounds in a game – amazing for a guard.

Last night, Brunson was basically playing on one leg and just had no lift on his shots. Most of his misses were short. But he was out there playing major minutes and they came close down the stretch. They are just so undersized now with Robinson and OG Anunoby both out, and not being able to get defensive rebounds down the stretch did them in. It’s unclear if Anunoby can even come back this series as hamstring injuries tend to linger.

For SU, I will enjoy the passion and the effort from this team as it feels like it’s just so rare these days. SU refuses to be pissed off by the refs who have a tough job in the NBA. The pace of play is so fast and the players are so athletic. I will say that the challenge system is basically annoying. If you want to review plays in the last 2 minutes, that’s fine but during the flow of the game, just move on. The calls will even out in the end. Pace of play matters and some of the overturns on foul calls are just ridiculous. The one on Brunson last night where he was fouled twice at mid-court (not called) and then maybe lost the ball out of bounds where the defender had his elbow in his side. The Pacers’ guards are basically saying we will play you physically and dare the refs to call fouls on every possession. Of course, they won’t and then you set the tone for the game. Brunson takes his share of bumps, grabs and holds – no doubt. Unclear to SU why that is allowed.

Sooooo, enjoy the rest of this series and what will be will be. DiVincenzo took a big hit on his back, and he was not the same down the stretch. With game 4 on Sunday afternoon, we will have to see how mobile he is. The Knicks may want to consider a “load maintenance” game and rest several guys Sunday. I am sure they will not but when you play 7 players, you really need them to be close to top form.

Reggie Miller Lives

Tyrese Maxey did his best Reggie Miller imitation against the Knicks last night in the last 25 seconds. Long-time (suffering) Knick fans will remember that playoff game where Miller pushed Greg Anthony to the ground on an in-bounds pass to hit a killer 3-pointer in a playoff game. Last night has to rank right up there with that one.

Full transparency: SU is only recently back on the Knicks’ bandwagon going back to last season. Too many years of Isiah Thomas, Stephon Marbury and Carmelo pushed me away for a long, long time. And as a NY sports fan, the Yankees’ collapses in the 2004 ALCS against the Red Sox after being up 3-0 has hardened me against tragedies like last night. That was the all-time low point, and emotionally, just can’t go there again.

ESPN reports that “before these playoffs, there had been only three games in the past 25 years that had seen a team recover from a deficit of at least five points inside the final 30 seconds and win the game.” And now it has happened twice in the same series – and there are still potentially 2 games to go.

Look: of course, Mitchell Robinson cannot foul on a 3-point attempt there. Just can’t do it. And then on the game tying logo 3-pointers, he actually pulled back. The Knicks are the all-time gritty team – they play so hard and fight until the end. But SU has these observations:

  1. Thibodeau is playing only 7 players now in his rotation. SU says that is crazy – especially with the load that Brunson has to carry. His shots were definitely getting shorter and shorter in the 2nd half. You have to give him a blow in each half. Precious Achiuwa played some quality minutes on Sunday but was MIA last night on the bench. Sometimes a bench player can change the flow of a game. If you don’t sub, much harder to make that happen.
  2. Game 6 may be the first blowout of the series. It is hard to recover in just 48 hours when you are playing your starters so many minutes. Bogdanovic is done for the season. Maybe Alec Burks can give them a lift in game 6? Dust him off for a bit of scoring?
  3. Embiid is hurting – he has no lift on his shot at all. You can’t expect Maxey to provide those types of heroics every game but the reality is that the Sixers are a deeper team. These teams are so evenly matched – I believe the Sixers have scored 1 more point than the Knicks in the series so far.
  4. For Knick fans, you stole game 2 at home, and now the Sixers stole game 5. That is sports for you. Crazy.
  5. Watch out for Dante DiVincenzo in game 6. He is due for a breakout game. It could be the difference.

Apparently, game 6 is 9 pm Thursday night (???) and then game 7 is Saturday. Quick turnaround now as we get late into the series. All the more reason to play another player in the rotation for the Knicks. Brunson is amazing but the offense has become stagnant with him dribbling around the top of the key for much of the shot clock. The Knicks are much better in transition and converting off their tough defense.

Bottom line: for Knick fans, this one hurts – a lot. Game 6 will test the resilience and grit of the team going back to Philly although a lot of Knick fans seem to make the trip down the Turnpike. If game 6 is close at the end, memories of game 5 will be fresh. Gotta love the NBA playoffs. SU still says the Knicks win the series but it may take 7 games. You know the NBA is hoping for 7 games given how some of these series have been no shows so far.

SU has to comment on the Yankees before leaving you today. Seasons are not lost in April/May but there have to be concerns about the offense against the better teams with good pitching. The Orioles are making a statement and they are really good of course. Maybe the tide turns tonight but very disappointing. Verdugo is away for a few days on parental leave and it immediately exposes the bench. Really lacking.

The Line between Physical and Dirty Play

OK, we all knew what was coming in game 3 of the Knicks vs. Sixers playoff series. Philadelphia was outraged (outraged I say)! by the physical play of the Knicks in games 1 and 2, and the NBA League Office determined that the refs missed a few calls at the end of the game. Game 3? Well, it’s the make-up game. Refs will call any foul on Embiid, and he can flail, complains, etc. and will get every call. This has been going on in the NBA for last 600 years in the playoffs. It usually lasts just the one game though, and SU expects a return to the normal chaos on Sunday in game 4. The refs check the box on the even-up game and we all move on.

What was troubling for SU in game 3 was the dirty play of Embiid. Sure, he gets hit a lot and he gets frustrated and will lash out. But in this game, there were multiple plays – knees to the groin, tripping and shoving Mitchell Robinson while he was on the ground under the basket, and a hip check on Anunoby late in the game in the backcourt literally right in front of the ref. We already know in women’s college basketball, that is a foul – certainly in the last 10 seconds of a game between UConn and Iowa. In the NBA with Embiid? It’s a play on – nothing to see here. It was an obvious hip check and deliberate.

Look, it’s a tiring argument to complain about the refs and SU does not go there. Win the game in other parts of the game – don’t put yourself in that position and be at the mercy of the refs late. But the reality last night is that Embiid should have been ejected earlier in the game for a Flagrant 2 foul, and his attempts to be “physical” quickly translated into being “dirty.” SU does not even think the Knicks mind the physical play or even the occasional dirty play. It’s just that there were several in one game. Sure, it’s the playoffs and everything is ramped up now but the refs need to determine the “line” for these actions. Watch for a new line to be determined in game 4.

It is an entertaining series between 2 teams that don’t like each other. Nothing better than that. Mitchell Robinson’s status going forward will be a huge issue for the Knicks.

The Yankees continue to waste great starting pitching from a staff that is not great. The offense is masked by the greatness of Soto. Gleyber Torres has 2 rbis on the season. Plays every day. Stanton still can’t hit in the clutch but the fact that he is slimmed down quite a bit makes fans feel better about it. At least Yankee fans are used to it and if he ever gets a hit, you are surprised and excited as you certainly never expect it. I still say the record is deceptive and much better than how they are playing. Also, SU cannot recall a Yankee team – ever – with a weaker bench. Boone does not even play them and most of the subs don’t have a batting average this year. Very odd.

Fun NFL draft last night. The Giants are all in on Daniel Jones and passed on JJ McCarthy in order to get Jones a top flight wide receiver. Can Jones stay healthy? Will he be running for his life most of the season as the O-line provides no protection?

It is interesting how many quarterbacks went high this year in the first round. It speaks to how few quality quarterbacks are in the NFL right now. SU hopes this class really emerges – the League needs it for sure.

Sixers Look to Play the Phil Jackson Card

We have seen this all before. Your team loses the first two playoff games on the road in New York. The games are physical. The refs are letting a lot go and you believe that your team is getting hosed. What’s a coach to do?

That’s an easy one. You pull out the Phil Jackson playbook from his days at the Chicago Bulls. “Outrageous officiating!” “We are getting man-handled!” “So many missed calls!” Blah, blah, blah. And of course, this being the NBA, what happens in game 3? The road team, up 2 – 0 in the series, has most of its starters in foul trouble in the first 5 minutes of the game. It is the classic over-reaction by the refs. And it happens time and time again.

Nick Nurse is in over-drive this morning. Filing a grievance with the NBA on the officiating in the first 2 games vs the Knicks. Please. You are getting clobbered on the offensive glass – start there. In SU’s view, Brunson is getting abused on every possession, and Kyle Lowry gets away with murder. The Sixers’ strategy is to foul on every possession and dare the refs to call it. The strategy says they won’t call it on every possession and you can establish a more physical style of play for the entire game.

At the end of last night’s game, Maxey fell down and Brunson did grab his jersey from behind but unclear to SU that caused him to fall down. In real time, it sure looked like a foul but in slow motion, much less so.

I saw LeBron walked out of his media session unhappy with the refs from his game last night. He is also a master at getting his team better calls in the next game. We know reffing in the NBA is very challenging. The players are so good, athletic and fast. It’s not an easy job. But the Knicks will be up against it in game 3. SU believes the over-reaction usually only lasts one game, and game 4 will be officiated better. But no way in this next game.

The Aaron Boone ejection yesterday was a classic if you get to check that out. The YES broadcast picked up the audio. SU says MLB should allow all managers and umpires to be miked up – it definitely spices up the action and the back and forth is fun to hear. OK, so there is some profanity but hey, it’s all about entertainment here. Boone obviously should not have been ejected as he didn’t say anything but in baseball, you can still call the shots in the runway under the dugout. Not a big deal especially with the Yankees’ bench and the fact that they rarely play the non-starters.

It is High, It is Far…

As a lifelong Yankee fan, SU has listened to John Sterling for over 30 years. For a time, it was John Sterling and Michael Kay back in the 1990s, and then he picked up Suzyn Waldman as his booth mate. John Sterling is a good guy and it’s easy to wish him well in whatever the future holds for him.

However, for the past 10+ years, he has been unlistenable for SU. And rest assured, I can listen to anyone – with the exception of Dick Vitale in recent years who I actually have to mute on the television. SU is fine with Sterling being a homer for the Yankees – heck, we had Phil Rizzuto and no-one was more of a homer than him. For me, it was a few things with Sterilng:

  1. Soooooo inaccurate on the home run calls. He was so excited to make the call on the home run and he did not seem to ever watch the TV monitor right in front of him. As his eye sight diminished, these calls became: “It is high, it is far, it is….caught 30 feet in front of the warning track.” As a fan, you started to listen more to the crowd noise in the background on these calls to figure out if it was actually going to be a home run. Brutal…. and super annoying.
  2. He stopped giving the score of the game. You know: you get in your car, the games is on and you just want to hear the score. If the game was in progress, and no inning break in sight, you could wait a ridiculously long time to get the score. I finally started to check the score on my phone first because of that before turning on the game. Again….. annoying.
  3. Working with Suzyn Waldman. SU has said this before: Suzyn was great when she did the post-game interviews in the clubhouse. Really excellent. As a radio analyst? Not so much value add there. I know many enjoy her with Sterling but I always felt it was a tough listening experience.

I like the Yankee television broadcasts. Kay, Paul O’Neill, David Cone, now Joe Girardi. All good. A different story on the radio and honestly, I stopped listening completely for the past couple of years for the reasons above. Unenjoyable. Nothing against him personally. Wish him all the best but looking forward to the new regime.

The Yankees are off to a great start but the cracks are starting to show a bit. The loss of Loaisiga in the bullpen is big as he was slated in for 2 innings at a time. Their ERA is excellent so far but you can see it coming. Over use as the starters don’t go much past 5 innings, and if you keep winning, there will be problems. Something is wrong with Anthony Rizzo in the field. Dropping throws at first, not scooping up balls in the dirt and last night, just missed a pop foul near the Yankee dugout. One wonders if the PTSD he suffered last year is totally gone.

Gleyber is not hitting but he will come around. The offense is more varied and once the weather warms up, they will be a tough out. They really need Gerrit Cole though to bolster the rotation. Truth be told, the AL is not all that good this year but the roster will need some tweaks going forward. I know: Yankee fans are spoiled. I prefer to think we have higher standards.

SU is excited about the Knicks’ playoffs coming up. They are an over-achieving team and fun to root for. A match-up with the Sixers will be very tough though – that is a team that may be built for the playoffs if Embid can stay healthy. But no matter what happens in the post-season, a great year for the Knicks.