All posts by HowardLevineSU

Focusing on College Sports

SU is back from a very fun weekend with long-time subscriber, B. Levine, up at Mohegan Sun to check out the Michigan hoops team for an early season tournament.  I am telling you college sports is the best.  Not only were we 3rd row mid-court for the championship game but the Michigan players were staying next door to our room in the hotel.  Recommendation from SU: college basketball gives you the chance to really see things up close and personal – almost like high school.  You can hear the coaches yell, players talk on defense and the effort is there on every possession.

John Beilein is such a great ambassador for Michigan and goes about his business without the fanfare of Tom Izzo (the troll) and the “one and dones” at Duke and Kentucky.  His teams play the right way.  SU is all in on college hoops this year.

SU is also looking ahead to the Michigan- Ohio State game this weekend where the Wolverines are actually favored in Columbus.  They are the better team but Ohio State has under-performed all year despite having a superior roster of players.  You wonder if they have not played their best game as of yet.  SU actually believes that if Ohio State ran the table and won the Big Ten Championship game, they would not get into the final 4 BCS championship with the bad loss to Purdue and the embarrassing performance vs. Maryland this weekend.

Brian Cashman is putting out all kinds of misdirection with the free agents.  SU is getting more nervous that they may actually sign either Machado or Harper thereby clogging up the roster with over-priced hitters for the next 10 years and allowing guys like Sanchez and Didi to walk.  Surely cooler heads will prevail and they will focus on pitching through the trade market but just not sure.  I think if they re-sign Hicks, then no Harper but if they let Hicks go, then they will be all in on signing Harper.  Rumors also have the Mets in the market for Machado which is interesting.  As always, baseball has the best off-season assuming the owners are looking to spend.

Looking Ahead to BCS College Football Playoffs

Long-time subscriber, T. Potter, raised this interesting question to SU: “If Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship game (assuming both teams win out the rest of their games), Notre Dame wins out, Clemson wins out, and Michigan beats Ohio State and wins the Big Ten Championship game, does Alabama still get into the Final Four?”

Alabama has been the consensus #1 team from day one pretty much all year.  Georgia has one loss (by 20 to LSU on the road) and Michigan has one loss to Notre Dame on opening day on the road by a touchdown.  The Final Four would likely be Notre Dame, Georgia, Clemson and either Michigan or Alabama.  The SEC had two teams in the BCS last year – do they do that again?  Both Michigan and Alabama would each have a loss to a BCS team.  The Committee will no doubt run the numbers, strength of schedule and all the rest.

As a biased Michigan fan, SU would pick Michigan and take the position that Alabama had just lost what was essentially a “play-in” game to Georgia.  I personally have not been impressed by Clemson’s schedule this year – they had a good win over Texas A&M on the road, but the ACC has not been great this year.  They are ranked #2 but SU is not sure that they are world beaters.

The fact that the process isn’t clean is actually good for college football – makes for livelier conversation and higher interest.

What do you think?  Who would get in?  Lots of things still need to happen including Michigan beating Ohio State on the road which to SU is a tall order always but this might just play out.

Free Agent Season is Here

SU is back in action after decompressing from Election Night coverage.  I will not forgive 538.com, Nate Silver’s web site, for having a screwed up forecasting model that showed the Democrats’ chances of winning the House going from 90% at 8 pm to 35% at 8:45 pm.  Note from SU: you have all year to make sure that is working properly.  Let’s get on that – especially after your 2016 debacle.

But that’s not why you are here today.  There are rumors in Yankeeland that Cashman is looking to trade the Generational One, Stanton, in order to free up money to sign Bryce Harper.  Let’s consider that.  You will move one overpaid player to sign another player for even more money who will be even more overpaid.  Others are saying that the Yankees will sign Harper anyway and keep Stanton.

The going rate for Harper this year will be in the $35 – 40 million a year range.  You can sign 3 solid or better players for that much money.  SU says the big free agents like Machado and Harper will not put up numbers that are that much better than the next tier players.  You are talking 5-10 home runs and 15 – 20 rbis.  Not worth it.  Machado is a Cano redux – won’t hustle and shows some signs of being a dirty player.  Harper is always scowling and is coming off a sub-par season.  The big moves so far are re-signing CC and Gardner.  OK, we are treading water.  SU does not like Stanton (have I ever told you that?) but he is no different than Machado or Harper.  If you want to trade Stanton for pitching talent, I am ok with that.  But I don’t see the point of replacing him with another overpaid dude who you don’t know will perform in New York in the spotlight.  Cashman is known for putting rumors out there to cover his actual moves so no doubt this is just noise.  Sanchez now needs shoulder surgery but should be ready for the start of the season.  SU says pulling the ball in every at bat must have taken its toll on his shoulder as no shoulder can handle that much poorly thought out swinging over a full season.

SU is upset that Trey Burke has been planted on the bench.  They seem to need a point guard but the new coach likes the bigger guards.  He will be moved by December.  Too bad.  The team is fun to watch though.  They don’t pass it around enough – too much one-on-one for SU – but they play hard, push the ball up the court and I love that they are young.

Finally, very interesting move by the Mets hiring an agent to be their new GM.  This seems to be a growing trend in baseball.  As he is the agent for Cespedes and I believe deGrom, you wonder how that comes into play.  But SU likes that the Mets have been bold.

So, what should the Yankees do?  They are managing to a payroll budget.  How do you justify a Machado or Harper, and should you trade Stanton to clear payroll to get one of these guys?

Was Gardner Re-signing a No-brainer?

SU has always viewed Brett Gardner as a very good 4th outfielder.  He’s a good guy in the clubhouse, excellent defensively, fast (although never tries stealing enough given his speed) and has a high on-base percentage.  He will hit .260 with 10-15 home runs and 40 rbis.  Solid.  You can win with him starting if you have some boppers in the other positions which the Yankees have had the last couple of years since the end of the Chase Headley Era.

But…. if the goal is to catch up to the Astros and Red Sox, are the Yankees on the right path?  SU says it does give you insurance in case Hicks leaves as a free agent, and also depth when someone gets hurt which Hicks always does and Judge did last year.  My concern is does this hurt Clint Frazier’s chance to win a starting spot or will he be a concussion risk for the rest of his career?  The wild card is Jacoby Ellsbury who is a paper cut away from being out 4 months.  It’s a 1-year deal so that’s good and it’s for less money.  SU is a bit torn here.  I want Frazier to get a legitimate shot to win an outfield position and Gardner will hold him back.  Cashman can’t count on Ellsbury but he must have at least 2 more years left – maybe 3 on his awful contract.  Of course, if you are going to trade Stanton in the off-season and that’s why you re-signed him, SU is all in.

Bottom line: it’s not an upgrade.  The team needs starting pitching and hitters who can hit the ball other than home runs.  Feels like they are standing pat.  Is SU wrong on this?

Tip Your Hat to the Red Sox

OK, Yankee fans, as hard as it may be to do so, it’s time to give props to the Red Sox for what may be one of the best seasons of all time record-wise.  SU’s observations:

  • Full disclosure: I watched very little of the playoffs after the Yankees were eliminated but I saw enough.  The Red Sox beat the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers – they did not have any gimmes and were dominant.
  • David Price has gotten the playoff monkey off his back.  He was big in the World Series.  Conversely, Clayton Kershaw has once again shown that he is mediocre in the post-season – the only blemish on his remarkable career.  And it’s a significant body of work so not an aberration.
  • SU says look for this in 2019: both the Red Sox and the Dodgers abused their relievers and starters.  Lots of warming up and sitting down, pitching several days in a row, pitching more innings than they are used to.  This will be an issue next season when these same pitchers have arm issues, Tommy John surgery, etc.  Something to look for next season.
  • Alex Cora pushed all the right buttons.  We will see if the trend continues next season.  SU says these things even out and he is not likable.
  • The Dodgers were like the Yankees.  All or nothing.  No clue how to hit in situations to get a run home, move a runner along.  The Red Sox put the ball in play and have a circular line up.
  • It just makes SU more annoyed that the Yankees traded for Stanton.  So unnecessary and where is the pitching going to come from in 2019 for the Yankees?  Manny Machado?  Does he ever hustle?  Don’t sign him.  Bryce Harper?  Same thing – unless he can pitch, SU says stay away.  The problem is not home runs; the problem is starting pitching and hitters who put the ball in play.
  • Brian Cashman will have a busy off-season – don’t screw it up.

The NY Giants are officially unwatchable.  I cannot watch Eli try and throw from the pocket and get sacked over and over again, or throw 5-yard passes over and over again.  Team is going nowhere – see what the youngsters can do at QB.  I am not saying it’s his fault but he cannot be productive on a team with a porous offensive line.  No point and no chance.

Finally, while the Knicks are losing, don’t lose hope – you have to play the youngsters and see what you have.  Also, Caris LeVert is a stud on the Nets (and ex-Michigan).  The guy can play and the Nets are fun to watch.

Any love for Boston this morning?

Monday Musings

The NBA season is upon us, we are starting to understand who the NFL contenders are this year, college football is entering its critical period and of course, the World Series is about to start.  A few thoughts for the intergalactic subscriber base on this chilly Monday:

  • How much fun is Patrick Mahomes?  Aside from the fact that he is on our fantasy football team, this guy is must see tv.  The contrast last night was striking with an immobile Andy Dalton on the Bengals who had limited movement vs. Mahomes who has amazing escapability skills.  If you are an NFL GM, is this the future of the position?  We have seen some of these types of QBs crash and burn in the past (see Michael Vick), but SU says this is the prototype of what the game requires going forward.  When you get down to it, he is much more of a college football style quarterback and that is good for the NFL.  It doesn’t hurt that he has great players at the skill positions in Hunt and Hill.
  • Of course, tonight we will see Eli who makes Dalton look like a speedster.  The Giants are getting killed for not drafting a QB this year but SU says Barkley is a great player and I am not sure Rosen or Darnell are the real deal.  As long as the NFL has rules to protect the QBs, why not get someone who is more mobile?  It was interesting to hear last night from Al Michaels that some owners feel there isn’t enough hitting today in the NFL – too many rules to protect against major hits.  SU disagrees.  I would rather see the stars on the field playing than being on injured reserve all the time.
  • SU is getting excited about the Michigan team this year.  They finally have a legit QB and a great defense.  Beating Ohio State on the road is still a tall order but it’s good for college football to once again have Michigan in the mix for a championship.  Of course, with Alabama, you are basically vying for 2nd best but who cares?
  • SU has caught some of the Knicks early on and they are watchable this year.  They play a much more up tempo game and they are young.  SU is a little concerned about the lack of assists in the box scores which speaks to a lot of 1-on-1 play.  The good news is that they are pushing the ball up the court so there is that.  The Pat Riley, grind it out, grab and hold era is officially over in the NBA.  The Golden State Warriors have changed all that and it’s for the better.  Teams are scoring in the 120s and 130s on a regular basis now — much, much better.  It’s much more fun to watch and rewards teams that have shooters.  SU says check out the NBA this year.
  • Red Sox vs. the Dodgers.  I must admit – don’t like either team.  SU can never root for Boston and Manny Machado is just unlikable.  But this should be a close series I think and good for MLB for ratings.  SU sees the Red Sox in 6 games and they are the best team this year.

Thoughts on the NFL?  Not enough hitting?

Finally, a public service announcement from SU.  This is for the Millennials on the subscriber list.  Election day is 2 weeks from tomorrow.  As we have learned, elections have consequences.  Get out there and vote for whomever you want, but vote.  Early and often.

“It’s the Pitching, Stupid”

SU does not understand the sudden demand that the Yankees sign Manny Machado now that Didi will be out for a half year for Tommy John surgery.  Please consider:

  • This is no longer George Steinbrenner’s team where there was no budget.  Today, Hal runs it like a business and they are managing to a $200 million payroll.
  • Judge and Sanchez will be free agents soon enough and Didi is a free agent after the 2019 season.  Aaron Hicks is a free agent this winter and they should look to re-sign him.
  • The team just set a record for home runs in a season.  Most of the big hitters will be back again next season.
  • Against the Red Sox, your starters failed to go longer than 4 innings in 3 of the 4 games.  Think about that.  And Tanaka only went 5 innings.
  • Robertson is a free agent as is Britten.  Betances will be eligible after next season.

Andjuar, as a rookie, put up 25+ home runs and in the neighborhood of 90 rbis.  What is Machado going to do?  35 home runs, 110 rbis?  How much better is that for that much money?  Is it worth $40 million a year?  SU says you can get two high quality players for that salary, and both of them can be pitchers.

The team needs pitching.  They are poised to contend more seriously in 2019.  Machado is like Stanton – a luxury.  Plus he doesn’t always run out ground balls.  Do you want another Robinson Cano to watch not hustling for the next 10 years?

SU says steer clear of Machado – he is not necessary and is not the answer to their needs.  The team needs younger, high quality starting pitchers and not the $30 million a year types.  Cashman should be smart and work the trade market.  He already publicly said he is dealing Sonny Gray – surprising that he said that but obviously the best for all parties involved.  SU hopes any Machado talk is just the Yankees driving up his asking price for other teams.

Thoughts?

Didi to Have Tommy John Surgery

Uh oh – Didi Gregorius has had his share of injuries of late.  Bruised heel that put him on the DL in August, then torn cartilage in his wrist and now he needs shoulder surgery.  The Yankees think he can come back for part of the season in 2019.  Gleyber Torres is a natural shortstop and can start the season there.  Didi is also in the walk year of his contract.

SU says not good – at all.  They should be trying to re-sign Didi as he has proven he can play in New York.  I suppose the one silver lining is that other teams may not be as willing to take a chance on him if he is not 100% physically due to this surgery at the end of the 2019 season.  This also makes the Yankees that much more right-handed which as we saw this year is a major problem.  Not the way you want to go into the off-season.

Perhaps Eli Manning is available?  His lack of mobility continues to be a major problem given the weakness in the offensive line.  Looks like another lost season at Met Life Stadium.  OBJ is channeling his inner Dez Bryant and Terrell Owens – it’s a bad look.  Hey, you got the big contract – just play the game and stop drawing attention to yourself.

The NBA season starts next week and the Knicks actually have a fun, young team.  As long as you don’t care about wins and losses, they are probably good to check out.  But if you live and die with them, well, SU suggests only occasional viewing.

Yankees Post-Mortem

They played taps for the 2018 Yankees last night.  The team pounded out another 5 hits for the 2nd game in a row and for the 3rd time in 4 games, the starter only lasted about 3 innings.  It’s not the formula for success – clearly.  So, what went wrong?  And what needs to be fixed for 2019?

  • SU says this year’s team reminded me of the 2004 team.  You had your new, over-priced and under-performing slugger back then in A-Rod, and a great offensive team with Gary Sheffield putting up crazy numbers plus Jeter, Posada in their prime years.  But pitching?  Do you remember who started the pivotal game 6 at home?  Jon Lieber.  And game 7?  Kevin Brown.  And who was in the bullpen losing every close game in extra innings?  Paul Quantrill.  An imperfect team with not enough pitching.  2018?  Exact same thing.
  • Goal #1 for next season: learn to hit against the shift.  Mark Texeiria lost his way at the end of his career just pulled everything.  He refused to change and the team suffered.  Teams are daring you to take the single and put the ball in play.  The Yankees should either teach this or get new batting coaches who do.  And while they are at it, get some Spanish speaking batting coaches as the team has some young players who do not speak fluent English.  Get with the times and put together a staff that looks like your team’s roster.
  • Do not go out and sign some stud starter for $30 million.  See the David Price mistake in Boston.  This is the offensive version of trading for Giancarlo Stanton.  The Yankees have some young up and coming starters in the minors.  Let’s nurture them and get them in the mix.  SU is much more comfortable going that route.
  • Luke Voit is a great hitter but his fielding is pretty scary.  He is a great DH.  So, here is the dilemma.  You don’t need to clog up your roster with Stanton and his $30 million salary when you are now managing to a payroll budget.  You do not need the extra 15 home runs and 30 rbis that he provides over some other solid player.  SU won’t kill him for coming up short again in the 9th inning last night as I had no expectations.  My only hope there was that he didn’t hit into a double play and kill the rally.  In any rally situation, my hope was to sustain the inning and maneuver around his expected lack of production.  Fine – he is who he is in the clutch.  There is still a chance to move him in the off-season and eat some of his salary.  SU is not saying Bird is the answer as he may not be cut out for NY.  But Clint Frazier is ready, Gardner is a free agent and he may move on.  Cashman has some interesting decisions.

CC blasted Angel Hernandez after the game but I thought he called a perfectly fine game for both teams.  Was this CC’s last game?  Sanchez came close in the 9th inning – put together an excellent at bat there.  SU would give him one more year to turn it around.  He may be ready now to make some adjustments.

Bottom line: SU enjoyed the first half of the season – a lot.  But the second half was a grind – perhaps it was the injury to Judge.  You have to design a team that can get past Houston and Boston.  The Red Sox put the ball in play.  They had some flare hits last night but there was constant pressure with people on base.  That is the formula.  SU says batting average still matters as does hitting with RISP.  The all right-handed line up is not the way to go.  Get some balance for next season.

OK, let’s hear from you.  SU is disappointed but by no means devastateted.  I just did not see this roster as being championship material.  The team has actually regressed from last year.  If you are managing to a payroll, Stanton is a big problem.

“It’s Not What You Want”

Of course, those are the famous words of Joe Girardi, former Yankee manager, and probably someone who would not have sent Severino back out to the mound in the 4th inning.  The evidence to SU was clear: his velocity was way down on the fastball; he was throwing almost no sliders; and there were few swings and misses.  Combine that with all of the hard hit balls to the warning track, and maybe, just maybe he was not on last night.

Did he get to the bullpen too late for warm-ups?  Everyone denies it but SU agrees with Ron Darling – something happened there.  SU’s theory is that Kevin Brown actually got into his body in the clubhouse and forced him to pitch like Brown did in game 7 in 2004.  But he also expended a lot of energy in the Wild Card game and it’s possible that after a long season, his arm and body did not respond in time.  Severino’s post-season numbers are bad – time will tell if he can overcome that or if he becomes David Price.  SU will not give up on him.

Boone blew that decision but in a 16-1 game, come on.  It’s a footnote.  Lance Lynn is a mediocre pitcher who was due for a bad outing.  Green was not good in game 1 and same last night.  The Yankees have a rested bullpen for tonight of their top line guys and you hope CC gives you 5 innings.  But a few points:

  • Did you see the Red Sox steal 2nd base up 10-0?  And did you see a batter hit on a 3-0 count up 10-0?  Hmmm.  No doubt a reflection of Alex Cora.  CC takes not of those things.  Something to watch for tonight.  You don’t want to put extra runners on but you can also fire up your team by hitting someone.  Hey, it’s baseball.  It’s all about pettiness.
  • Too many right-handed hitters in the Yankee line-up as pointed out by SU time and time again.  Didi is not healthy – no power in his hands with that injury.  Word is Neil Walker may start tonight at 3rd base.  If you do that, then put Stanton in the outfield and DH Andujar.  I am telling you McCutchen, aside from the occasional walk, is done.  SU would much rather have Andujar’s bat in the line up and why do you panic now in the playoffs?
  • There is no truth to the story that Angel Hernandez got into the wrong car after the game to go back to his hotel.  Word is the driver called into MLB Advanced Media to confirm that it was the right car and not the one next to it.  Seriously: that was embarrassing.  Truth be told, the first 3 calls were very close but the DP was obvious.  But no worries: he will be behind the plate tonight.  What could go wrong?

SU’s goal at the start of the playoffs was not to be embarrassed and humiliated against Boston.  Well, that was embarrassing last night.  The problem is they will roll out too many right handed hitters again tonight.  However, Hicks should be back.

Anyone feeling confident in Yankeeland?