All posts by HowardLevineSU

Yankees Going with Thin Bench

So, apparently Stanton wants to play but even he’s not sure what he can do running.  Hicks gets the start as does Encarnacion.  SU predicts a big game from….. Gary Sanchez because I bad mouthed him yesterday.  He always responds to SU’s criticism.

Better hope the shadows are not terrible in the first few innings as Cole will be even harder to hit.  And Severino needs to be under control and not over-amped up.

Wednesday will be a rainout so the Yankees will throw Tanaka in game 4 Thursday and Paxton in game 5.  Opener in game 6 – if necessary.  Amazing that neither team has a 4th starter this series.  Welcome to the new baseball.

Well, No-one Was Predicting a Sweep

SU stayed up until the bitter end last night around 1 am.  Btw, there is no truth to the rumor that Boone came out to replace Happ after Correa’s home run.  Can these games be any longer or slower paced?

As a Yankee fan, you had won 4 games on a row in the playoffs and you are playing the best team in baseball.  You are not going to win every game – especially on the road.  But…. SU has some thoughts for you this morning and it’s a bit troubling for the Yankees:

  • The Generational One, Stanton, made the mistake of running hard to first base in game 1 and well, this year, the reality is that no Yankee should run hard to any base.  He strained his quad and SU says this is a big deal for this series.  The Yankees took an extra pitcher on the roster (we saw why last night) and you only have 3 position players on the bench.  If Stanton can in fact still play but only as a DH and not in the outfield, Boone will need to decide who to play at DH: Stanton or Encarnacion.  Wow, that is a tough call.  SU says Maybin has a knack for getting on base and is a solid outfielder in spacious Yankee Stadium left field.  Hicks looked decent last night in his pinch hitting role.  I would either play Stanton ahead of Encarnacion (enough of the wild swings already) or put Hicks in there but then you are limited if you wanted to pinch hit for Maybin and you lose the DH.  Either way, not ideal and Boone is limited.  As SU has said before, check your ego at the door and if Encarnacion becomes a pinch hitter, don’t say a word.
  • The suspension of German is a killer.  No-one talks about it but you are not putting Happ in there in the 10th inning if German is on the roster.  SU says Happ will be playing the official Paul Quantrill role in this year’s ALCS.  When the game goes into extra innings and you just need to end it, he is your man.  He did get a couple of guys out in the 10th but it was just a matter of time.
  • SU thought the strategy to have every reliever in the 10th inning start out with a 3-0 count was interesting.  CC, Loaisiga and then Happ.  It’s not what you want.
  • And then there is the case of Gary Sanchez.  SU will not bash him as he will no doubt hit 2 home runs in game 3.  But when I see him up in any situation, I just can’t picture him doing anything hitting into the shift.  The Astros could take the right fielder and put him in the infield on the left side, and he would still look to wildly pull the ball.  In the 11th inning, he got 2 huge breaks: first the pop foul hits the roof of the stadium (and what the hell?); and then his swing and miss for strike 3 is amazingly called a foul tip.  He was called out on the next pitch which was 2 inches outside but hey, that’s your make up call.  SU had no issue with the umpire all night.  He was excellent and no one talked about him.
  • Should Boone have pulled Paxton in the 3rd inning?  SU says absolutely.  He could not get his slider over the plate – not even close.  The Astros are good at seeing if pitchers are tipping their pitches – not sure if they can read his slider or not as they never seemed to swing at it out of the strike zone.  But the game was about to get out of hand there.  Now, Green did well but there were a couple of shots hit off of him right at people.  Also, the reason he was pulled to bring in Ottavino to pitch to Springer (who promptly homered), was because Springer’s stats against the type of fastball that Green throws is just about the best in all of baseball.  The sabremetrics guys on Twitter were all over this but not our friends at FOX.
  • Speaking of FOX, enough of the long commercials between innings.  When Correa hit his home run to start the bottom of the 11th, SU actually thought it was a tape of some previous game when Happ had faced him.  They  barely got back for that pitch.
  • Finally, SU does believe that letting the Astros see every reliever every game is a problem.  They will get more and more comfortable with them.  And Chapman was not fooling anyone in the 9th inning.

You have to figure game 3 goes to Houston with Cole pitching.  The hope is that Severino can give you enough innings to not burn out the relievers.  Now, the forecast for game 4 is rain all day and night on Wednesday.  If that one is rained out, Houston has to decide to pitch Greinke on full rest Thursday in game 4 or go with an opener.  The same question exists for Boone.  If you’re down 1-2, SU says go with a rested Tanaka on Thursday and scramble with an opener in the next game (or go with Paxton).  Cole is lined up for game 7.

For the baseball purist, it’s very interesting.  For Boone, he’s open to the 2nd guess about 20 times every game.  The reality for him is that the Yankees will lose any extra inning game this series once you start rolling out Happ and CC.  Have to win in 9.

If the Yankees can some how beat Cole in game 3, everything changes.  Big, big, game.

Finally, SU came across a story about George Springer who had a major stutter as a child.  He started a foundation to help kids overcome stuttering.  Good guy.  Heart-warming story and major props to him.

Game 1 Things to Know

Here we go Yankee fans.  The rosters and lineups have been set.  SU needs to weigh in:

  • No Voit, no Tyler Wade on the roster.  Hicks is in and so is Maybin.  SU says Voit played his way off the roster with a bad final 6 weeks of the season.  Hicks gives them another left-handed bat as they only have 2 that will play in Didi and Gardner.
  • CC is on the roster.  SU  feels like if he ends up pitching meaningful innings, not good.
  • Tanaka in game 1 instead of Paxton?  Hmmm.  He does have great post-season stats but if he is off, things will get out of hand quickly  in Minute Maid Park.  SU will rely on Boone’s instincts here but I was surprised by the selection.
  • Didi batting 9th????  And Stanton 5th???  SU says this is all about ego.  Stanton would be embarrassed to hit 8th or 9th (where he belongs) and Didi should be much higher.  As Houston’s top 3 starters are all right-handed, you want Didi up there in big situations.  SU predicts Boone makes the adjustment after game 1 once cooler heads prevail and Stanton swings at those low and outside sliders.
  • Astros have no left-handed pitchers on the roster.  None.  All about match-ups and they will throw the hard throwers against the overly right-handed Yankees.  Not ideal for New York.

SU is still predicting a Houston series win but is glad some of the intergalactic subscribers are taking the Yanks.  I do think game 1 is winnable for the Yankees as Greinke sometimes gets too emotional and a bit amped up.  You have to break serve one time in Houston and with Verlander going tomorrow, tonight’s the night.

Many predict the winner of this series to take it all but the Nationals and their stud starters are red hot and a force.  SU would love to see the Yankees prove me wrong.  But I am paid to be honest (wait, am I paid?)

Game on!

Well, That Was Easy

On to the next round for the Yankees.  SU had predicted the Yankees in 4 games so I will take the sweep of course.  SU also notes that the prediction that Glayber Torres would come up big was naturally right on target.  Never doubt your friends at SU.

Now comes the hard part.  Yankee fans are hoping either that the Rays win the series with the Astros or at a minimum, push it to 5 games so that Cole needs to pitch game 5 back in Houston.  That will screw up their rotation for the ALCS.

A few observations on the Twins’ series:

  • SU is not happy with Boone’s over-managing of the relievers.  I had no problem with when he took out the starters but with Betances on the IL, they are short one quality reliever, and they really don’t have a long guy.  You cannot just have Ottavino pitch to one batter.  In both games 1 and 3, they were really stuck with having to cover the last 2 innings one pitcher short.
  • SU also believes that using all of your relievers every game gets the opposing hitters more familiar with the pitchers from game to game.  Not ideal.
  • You had to laugh at John Smoltz’s commentary on Gary Sanchez that he could hit higher than .232.  Really??  And how might that happen?  Oh wait, I have it.  HIT TO THE OPPOSITE FIELD.  When FOX showed some of the shifts against Sanchez with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs, it was a joke.  No one on the right side of the infield.  Other than Mark Texeira, no one thinks beating balls into the shift is a good idea.  The Yankees could get away with it against the Twins but in the next rounds against much better pitching, situational hitting is huge.  Sanchez hit to the opposite field in his rookie season.  Somehow he needs to regain that mindset.  Very frustrating to SU.
  • And then of course there is Giancarlo Stanton.  The announcers rave about his ability to not swing at the slider down and away.  For $30 million a year, this is what you talk about?  And did you watch him stumbling around in left field last night?  Terrifying.  SU says play Maybin.  He is better both defensively and offensively.  They never will.  But at least move him down in the line up.  It’s October: check your ego at the door.  In the 5th slot, he protects no one in the order.  Put him 8th and hope for the occasional meaningless home run.
  • Didi needs to move up in the order.  He is a very good post-season player.  The Yankees need to re-sign him.  He is a key left-handed bat and is tailor made for Yankee Stadium.  Rumor is  they will move Gleyber to short and LeMahieu to 2nd.  No, no, no.

The National League series are both great.  There will be nervous fans in LA tomorrow night.

Time to Strap In

SU was impressed with the optimism of Yankee fans in the post-season predictions.  Clearly, only SU is something of a realist and hope springs eternal in October.  The stadium will be rocking tonight although the new Yankee Stadium is not as intimidating for visiting teams as the old one where the upper deck hung right over the field.  The new stadium is more set back which allows the noise to float up and out.  However, SU will gladly take the open concourses and the additional leg room as a trade-off.

A few things to keep in mind tonight:

  • Do we need to sign up right away for 13 strikeouts?  Or can the Yankees change their approach a bit and put the ball in play more?  SU was impressed with the Cardinals last night which strung together 7 hits and 2 walks in the last 1.2 innings against the Braves leaky bullpen.  Mostly singles and doubles.  SU would love to see that.
  • We know CC is off the roster – apparently for a sore shoulder.  Clearly, hanging out too much with Ellsbury.  Word is Encarnacion will be on the roster.  Let’s see if Voit makes it — and Ford.  And perhaps add Tyler Wade for a late inning stolen base?  And what’s the over/under for Gary Sanchez to reinjure his groin?  Game 2?
  • Paxton is huge for the whole post-season run.  The loss of German really limits the Yankees as you want to avoid Happ starting any of these games – although it appears he is the game 4 starter unless they go with an opener.  SU says Paxton is up for the challenge.  This is his moment to show he is the man.
  • The Yankees are solid on the road and a loss in NY is certainly not fatal.
  • Glayber will be the series MVP.

All 4 series are playing today – very cool for baseball fans.  You really appreciate the Yankee bullpen after watching Atlanta’s implode.   I thought the Braves’ manager left Mark Melancon in too long in the 9th inning and it came back to cost him as Atlanta scored 3 in the bottom of the 9th.  He even gave up a hit to get out of the 8th inning.  Playoff series are won and lost on managerial moves with the pitchers.

David Cone has thrown his hat in for the Mets’ managerial job.  He would like to be considered.  SU thinks he would be an interesting choice – very into the sabremetrics.  Of course, Joe Girardi is out there as is Joe Maddon although he is rumored to be headed to LA.

Strap in.

Playoff Preview

Exciting finish to last night’s NL Wild Card game.  The Nationals were dead in the water but Brewers’ manager Craig Counsel decided to summon his inner Goose Gossage and get 2 innings out of his closer.  Now it’s true that this guy had closed a few times during the year for 2+ innings, but he was overly amped and missing badly.  If the Nationals hadn’t gone ahead that inning, he would have likely thrown over 50 pitches in total for a 2nd inning.  SU says good for the Nats who have a long history of failure in the post-season.

SU is a little nervous about the Twins’ series for the Yankees.  The crack research team has been running thousands of scenarios through our state-of-the-art analytics system using AI.  I know all about the history of beating Minnesota in the post-season but this year’s Twins’ team feels a bit different.  Both teams slug and the Yankees will need to score a lot to win.  The loss of Tauchman and Hicks means an almost totally right-handed line up.  And there are just so many strikeouts up and down the line up.  This will not be a cake walk.  SU says Yankees in 4 but some nervous moments along the way.

Earlier in the season, SU felt it was necessary to get to the World Series to say this season was a success but I revised my thinking to just getting to the ALCS and play Houston.  This is a bad match-up for the Yankees.    Too many hard throwing, right-handed starters.  Losing German is a problem.  Getting Stanton back is a problem.  But playing a long, competitive series would be great to see.  Losing in 6 feels like the outcome there and SU can live with that.

In the NL, the Dodgers are due.  An LA – Houston World Series would pit the 2 best teams against each other.  That would be entertaining.  SU sees the Astros ultimately prevailing in 6 games.

Of course, I am all in on the Yankees.  Keys to watch for:

  • Boone rested the relievers a lot in September.  That is either a good thing or guys like Chapman and Britton will be wild.  SU is a little worried about that.
  • Encarnacion is still not 100%.  Prediction here is that the Yankees will not put him on the roster for the ALDS but will for the ALCS.
  • Voit should sit.  Put Ford on the roster for another left-handed bat.
  • Great to have CC on the roster but not looking for him to pitch.  Let him root a lot instead.
  • While he has also been slumping, SU feels Didi will have a big post-season.  He is also a free agent and will want to make a statement.  Also look for Gleyber to come up big.
  • Paxton needs to be 100% for game 1.  They cannot afford to go to to the bullpen early.  Happ is the long guy but the Twins are heavily right-handed and Happ gives up a ton of dingers.  Not a good fit there.  The Yankees don’t have a true long man reliever right now and that is a problem if you have to burn the relievers in game 1.

OK.  As always, SU opens up the Comments section for your predictions.  This is your chance to become famous and qualify for the drawing for the SU logoed backpack for being right.  Have at it.

The Daniel Jones Era Has Begun

As a Giant fan, the feeling of watching your quarterback actually run for 2 touchdowns was quite odd after 15 years of not having a mobile QB.  SU was an Eli fan – I had no problem with him – but the time was right to make the move to a younger option.  It looks like the Giants’ GM and scouts were spot on with Daniel Jones.  He’s tall, mobile and hangs in there.  Now, he did take some brutal hits and Eli will no doubt need to stay sharp this season as his time will come again.  And if Barkley is out for any lengthy period, they will be passing even more.  The Giants will need to protect him.  But SU says it now gives fans a reason to tune in on Sundays even if they are a sub-.500 team this year (face it: that is one bad defense).  Btw, SU loves the QB draw play around the goal line.  That wasn’t the call at the end of the game, but with a guy like Jones, you can run that play and the zone read as additional options for scoring.

As one of the 17 people who watches the Tennis Channel, SU was quite entertained this weekend by the Laver Cup.  Like the Ryder Cup, it puts individual players from different countries on the same team for a weekend and there is a lot of passion and nerves out there.  And do you know who the best teammate is?  Nick Kyrgios.  He is a nut job in many of his matches the rest of the year but was all in rooting on his fellow players, providing pointers on the changeovers and just being engaged.  SU says he showed a different side for sure.

While German is gone, the Yankees are going to get a huge boost from a strong Severino in the playoffs.  They can now go Paxton, Severino and Tanaka as the rotation with either Happ or an opener in game 4.  It looks like their pitching is now lined up.  The problem will be the hitting.  Sanchez is on pace to return as is Encarnacion.  Urshela is slumping as is Voit.  Boone will have some options on lineups.  But SU says if they face Houston in the ALCS, putting 7 right handed hitters out there who strike out a ton against Verlander, Cole and Greinke is not what you want.  But… SU will be satisfied at this point if they can get to that round and then let the chips fall where they may.

SU was quite disappointed by Michigan’s showing against Wisconsin.  Even with a bye week, it didn’t seem like they were prepared.  The Badgers have big offensive linemen (as they have for the past 75 years) and try to push you around.  Michigan had no answer – on either side of the ball.  But… there are other games to come and they are not mathematically out of it.  It will take a quick reset for the season and getting players to show they care which was not the case in the 2nd half Saturday.

Finally, long-time subscriber, A. Grossman was on record at the start of the season predicting 105 wins for the Yankees.  He has been issuing regular reminders and is now in range of hitting his number.  While he will be expecting to receive the official SU-logoed backpack as a reward, we need to check inventory levels to see if any are left.

German Out for Remainder of 2019 Season

Well, that didn’t take long.  MLB is going to announce that Domingo German will not pitch again this year.  Big blow to the Yankees’ chances.  You can go with Severino, Paxton and Tanaka and then an opener for game 4 or perhaps CC/Happ.

As Joe Girardi used to say, “It’s not what you want.”  But clearly a bigger issue at work here than just pitching for the Yankees.

SU says enjoy the rest of the regular season and hope for the best in October.  The Twins feel like the better match-up in the ALDS round vs. either Tampa Bay or Oakland.  SU is lowering its goal now to just making the ALCS round and facing Houston.  Getting to the World Series now seems awfully challenging.

German Placed on Administrative Leave by MLB for Domestic Violence Dispute

Yankee fans, you may not have seen the last of CC Sabathia.  While Domingo German didn’t pull any muscles last night, he did something a lot worse and has been placed on administrative leave by MLB for domestic violence.  SU says this could be a major problem.  One of the few healthy players and now his ability to pitch in the post season will either be stopped or even if he can pitch, he will be majorly distracted.

SU is starting to think that Yankee fans should enjoy the next week and a half because once the playoffs start in 2 weeks,  hard to know what type of line up they will be putting out there.

Can’t we all just get along?  And can’t we all just stay healthy?  SU predicts Sanchez is a no go – and I am ok with that.  Romine calls a better game and puts the ball in play.  The team has enough swing and miss hitters in there already.  Encarnacion vs. Volt?  SU would go with Edwin and his parrot.  Better experience.  Stanton?  Hit the ball hard twice last night and also flashed a flailing swing at the low and away slider.  In mid-season form.

SU says clinch the division tonight and then rest guys down the stretch.  They will not catch Houston now and better to be healthy.

It’s Hard to Go Out Gracefully

The Giants just announced that, once again, they are moving on from Eli Manning and will give Daniel Jones a shot at QB.  For SU, this is a step up from Geno Smith – I mean that was an embarrassment.  We don’t know about Jones at this point but SU likes the move.  Clearly, there is nothing to lose – like the Jets, the Giants are going nowhere this season.

It’s hard to go out on your own terms in work or in professional sports.  If you stick around long enough, someone will take your spot and it won’t be pretty.  Eli is a good guy and a great teammate.  No doubt he will take the high road here.  Of course, you do wonder if some other team might want to trade for him given the absence of quality QBs in the NFL right now.  It is pretty amazing how many teams have a less than average quarterback.  It’s also possible that Jones will get hurt and Eli will be right back in there in a few games.

So, what do you think?  The right move, right time?