All posts by HowardLevineSU

“The ship be sinking”

In the immortal words of Michael Ray Richardson, “the ship be sinking” in the Bronx. 11 hits this weekend being swept by the Rays. Keep in mind Tampa Bay’s entire pitching staff is on the injured list. They roll out a lot of no name pitchers. The FCC has put out a warning that you should not operate heavy machinery while watching a Yankee game for fear of dozing off. SU stumbled across highlights from the Yankees ALCS vs Boston in 2003, and the 2001 World Series vs Arizona. Those were real teams with players who put the ball in play with a plan.

SU had noticed that the Yankees were not hitting in Spring Training. I know no one cares about that but they rarely had more than 10 hits in a game. Boone is managing by playing the same guys who are slumping every game figuring they will break out of it. SU says start Tauchman now every game. You have so few position players on the roster. He deserves a shot now. Hicks in his best years hits .230. Unacceptable. Signing Jay Bruce (now retiring) and trading for Odor ( can’t field, can’t hit lefties and hits the occasional home run) were panic moves. Cashman had done well restocking the farm system. OK, the Stanton trade was a mistake (have I told you that?) but his other moves are decent. Going forward, get more hitters who can hit to the opposite field. Voit will return in May but he’s just another swing for the fences hitter.

SU says it’s too early to worry about the new starting pitchers. They haven’t pitched for over a year. I can be patient. But not the offense. Players have to earn their at bats. Make them uncomfortable. Boone is not going to get fired nor should he be as long as he starts playing Tauchman. That is SU’s condition.

This is embarrassing.

Check out the Julian Edelman special on Showtime. Very entertaining. He is quite the character.

YanKee offense is offensive

The Yankees have now lost 3 of their 4 series this year. SU is a lifelong fan and I am not going anywhere (although I do find myself watching more Met games this season). But I need to be entertained and the 2021 version is not entertaining. Full disclosure: I am watching Netflix and following the game on mlb.com.
I mean how many times do we need to see Jay Bruce? No mas. Put Tauchman at 1st base. He is fast, hits to the opposite field and has a plan. This roster is clunky and you have outfielders playing the infield. SU will not dump on Stanton – he got a day off today as when you DH you can’t play a day game after a night game. Huh. Hicks is very good right handed but unless he homers left-handed, it’s an out. Platoon with Gardner.

I am not sure what Cashman and Boone are watching. They may be on Netflix too. Starters only go 4 innings and the bullpen will break down soon. SU says 2020 was a mediocre record with the same roster and this may be who they are. Just an overpaid average team that mindlessly goes for home runs over and over again. It’s not too early to be concerned. Time for some roster moves or at least playing time changes.

Earn your at bats

SU has seen enough of the Yankees this year. You can say it’s still early (it is) but SU knew this at the start of spring training. Players need to perform to stay in the line-up.

  1. Aaron Hicks – totally different hitter right-handed. Hits to all fields. Left-handed, he pulls everything into the shift. SU says platoon him in center field with Gardner. Makes total sense. Done
  2. Clint Frazier – already struggling. Tauchman deserves some at bats. He puts the ball in play. Obvious move.
  3. Jay Bruce – done with him. All or nothing hitter and teams put 4 guys in the outfield. Still won’t hit to left field. Don’t need him.
  4. Odor – no clue why they got him. None. But he is left handed and we all know the all right handed lineup is dumb. Worth a shot.

Bottom line: Yankees are painfully boring. On pre- game show today, all the talk was take pitches and be patient. Not seeing it so far. At all. And yes, I know it’s still early. And won’t cut it in October. Am I wrong?

Baylor Peaked at the right time

In the NCAA Tournament, it’s all about peaking at the right time for your season. We saw that with UCLA and we certainly saw that with Baylor. In the wins over UCLA and Gonzaga, they were relentless on defense and the offensive glass. They were able to keep fresh players coming in to maintain the pressure. They are not a tall team but they just get after it on defense with a real intensity.

SU was impressed with the general unselfishness from the entire team. That’s what you need to win a championship. What separates them from other teams is that they have several players than can go 1-on-1 with the shot clock running down to beat their man off the dribble. And all of those guys can shoot it from the 3-point line so you have to respect the outside shot. It was quite a contrast with this year’s Michigan team who has, at most, 1 player who can do that (Mike Smith) but he is around 5-9 so getting off a shot inside is very challenging.

Was Gonzaga gassed from the overtime win over UCLA in the semis? SU says no. That was an all-time classic game and great for the sport. But you are down to one more game now and surely you can muster the energy. The reality is that Gonzaga only goes 7 players deep when it counts and they were just punched in the face in the first 5 minutes and could never regain their footing.

Next year in college basketball will be very interesting as a ton of players have entered the transfer portal and the NCAA is also allowing players to come back for another year of eligibility. There will be many players changing teams who will be competing for time with incoming freshmen. For the players transferring, it’s a crapshoot as hard to know where you can get your minutes.

SU has checked out the Yankees for a bit so far this season. I am getting in some quality nap time there. I know it’s early April and it’s cold. The offense is pretty terrible and the starting pitching has been pretty great. The home runs will come but for SU, waiting on the 3-run home run every game is not a formula for success in October. I don’t see how this works in the playoffs. Enough said.

The Mets’ bullpen got that first blown save out of the way in game 1. Too bad for deGrom who was throwing 100 mph – as is half of MLB so far. Why is that? Note to MLB: 100 mph throwers in late afternoon shadows does not lead to a lot of action. But it does lead to a quality nap.

Fearless MLB Predictions

It’s Opening Day! Hope springs eternal for every baseball team. It will be cold in New York but they will get the game in for the Yankees. Mets go live in Washington tonight. Fans in the stands – finally – although limited unless you are in Texas because…. of course.

SU has read a few of the experts’ predictions for the season. A lot of love for the Dodgers I must say. Some say it’s a slam dunk. Repeat champions? SU says teams are not as motivated that next season – even ones as stacked as the Dodgers. Many are high on the Padres and the Braves. The AL is not as interesting – apparently – as many feel the Yankees will roll through the season and the playoffs. Clearly, they are mesmerized by the all right-handed line-up and why that is a formula for success.

SU’s thoughts on the 2021 season:

  • Unless the Yankees have totally revamped their strength and conditioning program (which they probably have), I can’t believe that guys like Judge, Stanton, Voit, Hicks are doing to stay healthy all year. Combine that with starters who haven’t pitched in 2 years and another (Severino) coming back from Tommy John surgery, and Zach Britten injured, SU is not 100% sold on the pitching staff. And Chapman is always hurt for a month or two on top of that.
  • I hate the all right-handed line-up. And I hate watching Gary Sanchez hit. He needs to aim for right field this year. SU does not care about the home runs. Show me a new approach this year.
  • The Yankees look great on paper. I would have to say that given the regression of the Rays with their player departures and the Red Sox being in a rebuild, anything short of making it to the World Series this year would be a disappointment. They don’t have to win it but I think you have to get there in 2021. Many are high on the Angels and the White Sox. The AL West looks like the toughest division in the AL as Oakland and the Astros are always contenders.
  • In the NL, SU is high on the Mets. Smart to lock up Lindor – he is young, charismatic and easy to root for. I don’t think they will win the NL East but they will be a Wild Card. SU will also root for Joe Girardi in Philadelphia and Didi Gregorius.

I think the season will really build as more people get vaccinated and teams allow more fans in the stands for games. Will we see vaccinated fans only sections in 2021 along the lines of the alcohol-free sections of years past? SU will sign up for that. And if you want to limit attendance to 50%, I am there for that as well. I don’t need the pushing and shoving in the men’s room in the 5th inning from intoxicated, yelling fans.

I say too much love for the Dodgers. Yankees vs. the Padres in the World Series, and the Yankees finally break through. The key will be Cashman picking up some left-handed hitters at the trade deadline. The Mets will get the Wild Card and will advance to the NLCS where they lose to the Padres. The Subway Series will return as will the rivalry in New York.

Giancarlo Stanton will play in 75 games. In fact, the Yankees will sit him in April when the temperature dips below 40 degrees to avoid calf injuries. Judge will schedule his oblique injury for May and will return in July. Gary Sanchez will be the AL MVP (OK, just kidding).

The floor is open for anyone who wants to weigh in with their thoughts on 2021 baseball. Be bold. Play Ball!

beware the ides of march

As SU has written many, many times, I am in it for the “journey”, not just the end result. In college basketball, in a normal year, you start with the early season tournaments, then the non-conference games, conference games, conference tournament and the NCAAs. It’s a long season and you enjoy seeing how your team evolves, improves, deals with adversity/injuries and then the final result.

For Michigan last night, that was just a brutal game. I mean, 49 points is a ridiculously low number. While I wanted to see them win and advance to the Final Four, I must admit that even in a victory it would have been less enjoyable. Missed foul shots, silly turnovers, just really bad shooting – we had it all. Michigan played great defense and even though Juzang went off, they held UCLA to 51 points. And despite it all, they had shots to win it in the final seconds. I wanted Brown taking those final shots and do not understand why he was not the first option but hard to argue with Juwan’s success.

But as I am old and wise (or mainly just old), I can appreciate the process and how much this team achieved this year. This was a true “team” – not a roster of future NBA stars. The injury to Isiah Livers was a tough hit late in the year, and he is probably their best player who does so many things for them. Without Livers, Michigan was not a legitimate #1 seed – more like a #3 or #4. So, for SU, making it to the Elite 8 was over-achievement. Should they have beaten UCLA? Absolutely. UCLA is not a very good team. But SU says give them credit – they are in the Final Four and beat some good teams to get there.

For Michigan, Franz Wagner will declare for the NBA draft and some team will take him in the 1st round. While he is gifted physically, he is not a good outside shooter and his shot is awkward and slow to release. He would benefit from a total remake of his shooting motion. SU will be shocked if he has a successful NBA career. Excellent defender, long arms but his future may be in Europe in the long run. Hunter Dickinson knows what to work on this summer: a left-handed shot, jump shot, footwork. SU says he has upside. It was a lot to ask of him as a freshman to be featured on offense last night against smaller opponents. He needs to learn to spin and shoot the other way so the smaller players can’t just flop and flop on defense. He will be an NBA player and could thrive in the right system. But he needs to perfect the mid-range jumper first.

It was a great season. An over-achieving season. It comes to an end suddenly and that is sports. You ride the highs and endure the lows. But you always come back for more and it’s fun to start thinking about next year’s team. That is the process and the journey. Gonzaga is going to be a tough out in the Final Four. They play at a different level from everyone else.

SU’s fearless baseball predictions come out tomorrow. We are already running statistical models on the over/under for the number of games played by Giancarlo Stanton. Even exclusively as a DH, hard to get him over 81 games.

Women’s Hoops on Display

SU has something to say about last night’s Elite 8 match-up of Baylor vs. the UConn women. First of all, this was a great game between two storied teams that have been dominant on the women’s stage for many years. The first quarter which ended with UConn up 26 – 24 was probably as good a 10-minute stretch of college basketball that I watched all season. The pace was incredible and both teams were playing a quick tempo. And let’s call it like it is this year: some of these NCAA men’s games will not go into the time capsule for their offensive prowess. Brutal shooting for long stretches by both teams. This women’s game was excellent.

Now, the rest of the game reverted to the way that Baylor likes to play defense. Lots of grabbing and holding, don’t let the other team run their plays. SU has seen this style of play before. In fact, anyone in the SU subscriber base who played hoops at Blind Brook High School against Rye High School on the boys’ side knows what I am talking about. Grabbing and holding. The idea is that if you grab and hold on every play, the refs won’t call it. The refs will start to accept that is the way tonight’s game will be played and you get away with it. For the final 3 quarters, Baylor got away with it. The game ended up at 69-67 with UConn winning which shows you how much scoring there was in the last 3 quarters.

Which brings us to the last few seconds with Baylor down 2 points. Their play breaks down and one of the players attempts a bit of a fadeaway baseline jumper from around 10 feet with 2 UConn women right on her. Was it a foul? Sure, probably. Both players got the ball but there was some contact. Not called. After the game, coach pissed off. Shooter pissed off. LeBron James pissed off on Twitter. SU says if you basically foul on every possession for the entire game – and certainly the last 3 quarters – then you have to live with it. You got away with calls all game long and this one went against you in the end. Their coach was frustrated in the post-game news conference (somehow her mask ended up in her eye for most of the time which was interesting to watch) but I say you benefited by the way the game was reffed throughout and that is that.

Baylor is a very physical team. They pound it inside on offense and make it hard for you to run your offense. Seriously, they play like the 1990s Knicks under Pat Riley. It’s not enjoyable to watch. The NBA has made the transition away from this style to today’s wide open up and down style which is so, so, much better to watch. Baylor probably got jobbed on that last call but SU has no sympathy. Move on. You can’t have it both ways.

This and That

SU is closely monitoring its usual terrible NCAA Tournament picks. Seriously, I would be better off closing my eyes and just pointing. I do have Arkansas in the Final Four so there is some limited drama there but this year has been especially bad. SU has been watching a lot of the games though and observes the following:

  • Some of the refereeing in the earlier games has been pretty bad. I think the college refs are especially bad at calling the offensive fouls. There is way too much flopping – and in the post, you have a 280 pound center fall down after one slight bump and he gets the call. They have to do better and start calling the flop warnings. I know it’s a tough call in general. Then the moving screen calls – again, ridiculous. If you watch an NBA game, moving screens are part of the game. In college, it’s a 180 degree difference. SU’s point here is that you put teams in the bonus early or put players in foul trouble based on ticky-tack calls. And if one half has no calls, you can bet the other will have a ton. SU did notice that this weekend, the refs were letting the player play and that is the better approach. I know it’s a hard job – but there needs to be more consistency.
  • Gonzaga seems to be heads and shoulders above the rest of the field. They play at such an up tempo pace and have a lot of shooters. They may run into a team with great defense before the end but for now, they are dominant.
  • SU is very excited about Michigan’s run without Isiah Livers. Juwan Howard is proving to be a great coach. He does not have an NBA ready roster like other teams but they play like a team which for me is what makes basketball one of the great spectator sports when it’s played that way. So many other teams are more gifted athletically but basically just push the tempo, throw up shots and crash the offensive boards. The Mt. Vernon high school teams in Westchester County have won a lot of championships playing that way but for SU, not fun to watch.
  • Check out UConn vs. Baylor tonight in the women’s NCAA Tournament. Great rivalry and this could have been a Final Four match-up.
  • Baseball starts on Thursday! This is great. SU will come out with its fearless predictions soon enough for the season but this is sorely needed.
  • Mike Woodson is the new coach at Indiana. No doubt he will bring his offensive playbook (er, make that pamphlet) of isolation offense. But he’s a good guy and SU wishes him well.
  • The US Men’s National Soccer Team has failed, again, to qualify for the Olympics. It is hard to explain how the women’s team is the best in the world while the men’s team lags so far behind on the world stage. Is it that other countries don’t make the same investment in their women’s programs? I watched one of the games this week against Mexico. I know soccer is the world’s most popular sport and I do try to get engaged but it’s a struggle for me.
  • SU has been told, on multiple occasions, that I am not showing enough love for YOUR NEW YORK KNICKS. Truth be told, I still don’t watch them very much. It’s the stain of Isiah Thomas that I cannot shake. He just ruined it for me and then the Carmelo Anthony era cemented it. I do peek in here and there and they play hard – every game. And they play defense – every game. They are on the upswing now and the trick will be to build with the youth vs. bringing in the wrong free agents. So far, so good as Randle has really changed his game in NY. He has been outstanding. A playoff run would be great for NY and maybe by then some more fans will be allowed into MSG.
  • Brooklyn is signing LeMarcus Aldridge on top of Blake Griffin. If Durant can get healthy (seems possible) and if Kyrie can somehow straighten out his personal problems (seems impossible), they should be the favorites to win it all this year. I know there is only basketball but Harden had adapted his game so far. SU is not sure how this works under the salary cap but here they are.

We are entering a fun time of year now for sports. NCAAs, start of baseball and soon the NBA playoffs. And for some of you, the NHL playoffs as well. People are getting vaccinated; fans in the stands soon enough.

It’s march madness

No doubt many SU subscribers are holding off finalizing their NCAA picks until they read SU’s fearless predictions. Help is on the way. Now, full disclosure, SU has a terrible record on the NCAA Tournament. We all know it’s a crapshoot and in a pandemic year with limited fans in Indiana and players sequestered for days and days on end in some random hotel, well, you can only guess what will happen this year.

SU, as per usual, has run thousands of scenarios through the SU statistical model and sophisticated algorithm. We see the following as being important:

  1. Momentum: SU is not a believer in how teams play in conference tournaments carrying over into the NCAAs. In fact, I see it as the opposite. Teams reach an emotional high if they win their Conference tournament and then may have a letdown. Also, there is the fatigue factor of playing games on consecutive days – for Ohio State, for example, that is 4 days in a row. Not to be discounted.
  2. Injuries: And this year, not just injuries but COVID. Who on your team tests positive? No way to know once things get going. Michigan losing Isiah Livers is huge. Arguably the best player on the team. They are a #1 seed but it’s hard to see them progressing too far without Livers. SU is still picking them to get to the Final Four but that is largely an emotional pick plus I don’t want to root against them. They had a great year, won the Big Ten, and for SU, it’s always about the journey vs. the final, final result. Highly enjoyable season, love the way they play. It’s all gravy now for SU. Georgia Tech is without their best player in their opener vs. Loyola.
  3. Shooting in a Football Stadium: The Big Ten held their tournament in Indianapolis and played in the football stadium. That gives them a big advantage as the shooting background – especially with limited fans – is tough in these venues. SU has no idea where games are being played but for teams that rely on outside shooting, this is a factor.
  4. Limited fans: The reality is that no team will have much of a home court advantage. Teams playing far from home – even though highly ranked like Gonzaga – may have few fans rooting for them until the Final 4.

SU has Gonzaga, Michigan, Arkansas and Illinois advancing to the Final Four. Arkansas is my surprise upset team. I think Illinois is going to win it all. I don’t like them but they have a bunch of scrappy players that are tough and play hard on defense. Now, have they peaked with the Big Ten Tournament? It’s possible and they are no doubt the pick of a lot of people right now. SU says that they have the attitude – they play pissed off. And their coach is always pissed off. Gonzaga has some great players and this may be their year finally to win it all. I mean they are undefeated but they play an easy schedule for the most part. Illinois over Gonzaga in the finals.

Per usual, the floor is open for you to register your Final Four picks and be recognized for your brilliance in a few weeks. SU has a no harassment policy and will not make fun of anyone’s picks if they are way off as I usually fall into that category. It’s time to man (or woman) up and let everyone know where you fall. Have at it.

Julian Edelman is a Mensch

SU just read this story about Julian Edelman’s response to Meyers Leonard who has landed in hot water for saying an anti-Semitic slur while livestreaming his video game (Full disclosure: not sure what that even means or why anyone would want to watch that). Edelman is really not an observant Jew but he has discovered his roots of late and sent an open letter to Leonard offering to meet with him for a Shabbat dinner down in Miami.

Good man. Check it out.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/31038867/new-england-patriots-julian-edelman-writes-open-letter-meyers-leonard-miami-heat-center-anti-semitic-slur

Trying to turn something bad into a learning experience. Good for him.