All posts by HowardLevineSU

Chapman Warning Signs

SU says keep an eye on Aroldis Chapman now. He has been virtually perfect all season and the best closer in baseball for the mediocre Yankees. For a team that is just above .500, he has been a difference maker. Of course, Yankee fans know that he always goes on the IL for some period of time each year and that time may have now come. He was lit up for 4 runs last night and his fastball was around 95 mph. That is usually the warning sign for Chapman. The drop in velocity is usually related to some type of shoulder or arm issue.

OR, there may be another theory at work here. Could Chapman be one of the high spin rate pitchers who puts something on his hands to make the ball spin faster? Is he no longer doing that and was last night the result?

OR, is he just human and everyone has a bad day – even the great Mariano?

The reality is that the Yankees have no margin for error with their pitching given their offense is so weak. Sure, they had a good series against the lowly Twins but let’s see if that carries forward. They could have added runs on last night but they continue to struggle with RISP. A sweep would have been nice but even though the Twins have struggled “bigly” this year, the Yankees are not head and shoulders better to expect a sweep.

Today is a monster day for men’s tennis for the 27 people who watch the Tennis Channel globally. Djokovic vs. Nadal and Tsitsipas vs. Zverev. SU says that Djokovic has a decent shot today but he will need to sustain a high level for 4 hours which is the challenge vs. Nadal in best of 5 set matches. He is a relentless competitor. What’s interesting is that if Tsitsipas can win in straight sets, he will have an advantage on Sunday as Nadal is 35 and Djokovic 34, and a tough match today will put them at a disadvantage Sunday vs the younger Tsitsipas. He has had a great 2 months on the clay in Europe and is ready to break through.

OK, I know most of you don’t care but hey, I get to write whatever I feel like so live with it.

Could it be worse?

As always, SU has its finger on the pulse of the sports media world. SU noted in this morning’s New York Times that excellent columnist, Tyler Kepner, also commented on A-Rod’s remarks from the Sunday Night game on ESPN. Note all of the points were already covered by SU yesterday.

But it gets worse for the Yankees. Check out this story on Yahoo! Sports that the new initiative by the umpires to check on the pitchers is specifically targeted at the pitchers who are throwing with those higher spin rates. Apparently, they are applying some type of substance to their fingers that enhances the grip on the baseball to apply that spin rate. And who is one of the studs doing that? Gerrit Cole, that’s who. His last outing against the Rays apparently showed a lower spin rate which may mean that he is already no longer using a substance. He lasted 5 innings. Er, not good.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/mediocre-yankees-may-nightmare-gerrit-164625092.html

As Yogi used to say, “it’s getting late early.”

Check out the French Open this week. The women have no seeds above the top 15 or something like that given the withdrawls and all of the upsets. The men’s side could feature a Djokovic – Nadal semi-finals match, and today is a Medvedev vs. Tsitsipas quarterfinals. These guys are not just staying back and hitting 30-shot rallies. Good stuff.

A-Rod is right

Listening to A-Rod last night during the Yankee – Red Sox game, you would have thought he was lobbying for the Yankees’ managerial job (and who knows? Maybe he was). While he, of course, talks way too much, he was spot on with his comments and one would have thought he was a regular reader of SU. His major points (all of which were repeated 17 times over the course of nearly 4 hours):

  1. The Yankees line-up is right-handed dominant. Check.
  2. They really, really, really miss Didi Gregorius. Yup.
  3. They lead MLB in grounding into double plays. A-Rod made the additional point that right-handed hitters take longer to run to 1st base which only contributes to that total.
  4. They don’t do the fundamentals – which he constantly contrasted with the Red Sox who do. No thought given to moving the runners over. Case in point in the 10th inning. The Red Sox sacrificed with 1st and 2nd, no one out. The Yankees also had 1st and 2nd, no one out. Andujar swings away. Doubleplay.
  5. The Yankees are last in baseball with 17 stolen bases.
  6. Gary Sanchez’s catching position with one knee on the ground makes it hard to block pitches in the dirt which in the late innings and men on 3rd base, is not good.
  7. When the opposition scores 5 or more runs against the Yankees this year, they are now 0 – 18. Yikes.

If you watch Aaron Boone’s post-game press conferences, he is about to explode with frustration. SU says he has never been a great in-game manager. No creativity, risk-taking, bold moves. But he wasn’t hired to do that. He is the great communicator. A player’s manager. I mean, he is only playing Stanton 2 games in a row as the DH now. They have an off day today. Did Stanton need to rest 2 days in a row? He rarely reaches 1st anyway – what is going on there? Is he that brittle? He did put him up to pinch hit and ESPN revealed that lifetime, he is 2 for 23 as a pinch hitter with about 13 strikeouts. Of course, he struck out.

Luckily for Boone, there is no likely successor to plug in there. And SU says it’s not his fault. The roster is so flawed. Jeff Passan of ESPN said on the pre-game show that the Yankees are “unathletic.” Ouch. 4th best team in the AL East and now 6.5 games out of 1st place. You can also make the case that they have overachieved this year given that their runs for/against are now in the red numbers (-4). Their pitching has been outstanding. If that falters, man, look out.

The Yankees are never sellers come the trade deadline but this roster is not built to win – either in the regular season or in the playoffs. The AL East and the NL West are the best divisions in baseball. Maybe time to blow it up? Cashman will need to get lucky with the hitters he trades for in July.

SU knows that everyone has their reasons for getting or not getting the vaccine for COVID. I am sure that Jon Rahm does as well. He tested positive on Saturday and had to withdraw from the Memorial Tournament that he was leading by 6 strokes. The PGA TOUR does not publicly state these things but it seems like he wasn’t vaccinated. It does make you wonder. Guess COVID is not real.

The Mets quietly hang on in 1st place in the NL East. Their owner has deep pockets and they can easily add a player or two at the trade deadline. Fun times ahead.

Are You Not Entertained?

Of course, that is the famous line from the movie, Gladiator, where Russell Crowe asks the crowd about his latest battle in the arena. SU wonders how Yankee fans, or baseball fans in general, would answer that question in 2021? I am a lifelong fan and historically, can sit through a 9-inning Yankee game with no issues. But this is a new era and it is officially a struggle. You know the reasons but it’s good to put them down in writing:

  1. Lack of offense. I mean, this team just cannot hit. And you can’t blame it on the injuries. Aaron Hicks was already awful before having his wrist surgery – he was the poster child. They don’t grind out at bats like past teams. 7 hits is an offensive outburst. Clint Frazier just passed the 10-rbi mark and he plays almost every day. It’s June 3rd.
  2. Ignoring the shifts. You have to assume that the coaches are telling them to hit through the shifts. If you see a game in person, there are huge swaths of open infield just crying out for some attention. It is insane what the hitters are doing. And unwatchable.
  3. Fielding an all right-handed line-up. Right now, there is Brett Gardner (who should have retired in 2020) and Odor (who swings so, so hard and is never cheated. All good for a .190 average). Oh, and Tyler Wade. How is this a winning formula and what GM strives for this? (Scratch head and move on).
  4. Strikeouts are no longer a bad thing. Last night was another 14 – stirkeout effort and the team regularly fans up and down the lineup.
  5. Zero strategy. Last night, Odor comes up against a left-handed pitcher with 1st and 2nd, no one out. Shift is in place. He can barely hit left-handed pitchers. You are up 4-3, 7th inning. BUNT! Nope. Is it the analytics that say you never bunt? He ultimately flied out to center which was considered a victory and Urshela ran himself off the bases before Torres was picked off first base. It’s like watching rec ball or Little League.
  6. Pace of play. Last night’s game was just under 4 hours and there were few exciting plays or suspenseful innings. SU says it has become unwatchable. Sure, you get the win but as a fan, you want to be inspired and entertained. This is neither.
  7. Regular season records don’t matter. For the Yankees, they may still win 100 games this year but who cares and who will remember that? Memories come from the post-season and they will just strike themselves out of the playoffs as they have in recent years. SU does not buy the rationale that a play here and there in past playoffs would have resulted in them advancing. Who on the team gives you confidence that they will come through in a tight spot? Not LeMahieu – at least not yet – as maybe he is comfortable with the new contract? SU feels he is about to get untracked though. Never Judge and never Stanton. Maybe Urshela and Torres. Sigh.

Bottom line: SU has no favorite Yankee player. I cannot recall that ever being the case. Cashman needs to make a rash of moves. Bring back Didi, bring back Torreyes who is hitting .317 for the Phillies, bring in any left-handed hitter (except Jay Bruce). Please, please, please. Or bring up some youngsters. The Red Sox come in this weekend and they can score runs. No way the Yankees can keep pace if the score goes higher than 2-2.

Knick fans need to step back and appreciate the full body of work for this season. They dramatically over-achieved and the future is bright. There is a good management team in place and the youngsters will only get better. No shame in losing to the Hawks. Move on.

The Nets/Bucks series will be great. Games in the 120s. Too bad it’s not a Conference Finals series.

Did you catch Damion Lillard the other night? 19 straight points in the 4th quarter and OT for the Blazers. SU says every kid in America (and the world) needs to learn the step back jump shot. It is unstoppable. Steph Curry can do it and Lillard can do it from 40 feet. It’s a great shot.

Finally, the Naomi Osaka default from the French Open is interesting. Clearly, she is struggling with some mental health issues and with COVID, so are most people. It’s just a grind for everyone. SU is sympathetic but athletes get the sponsorships, endorsements and long-term deals by being exposed by the media to the fans. That is how it works. I know the athletes want to control the messaging directly to their fans (see The Players Tribune) but the media is important. SU recognizes that some of the questions are annoying (and redundant) and it’s hard right after a game or competition to be up there. But for SU, it’s part of the deal and it only enhances the size of the deal for the athletes. I hope she can figure it out as she is fun to watch and at the top of her sport.

OK, I am done. Feel free to comment. All are welcome.

Good Times in New York

As mentioned by long-time subscriber, D. Harmon, these are unusually good times for the NY sports fan who has the Knicks, Nets and Islanders all in the playoffs, and the Yankees and Mets either leading or competing for their division leads. It is funny for the Yankee fans who have been frustrated with the team’s performance in 2021 but there they are within a game and a half of 1st place. The Mets’ entire team is on the Injured List but they hang on in 1st place.

SU says we need to give credit to Brian Cashman for taking a chance on Corey Kluber. His contract is a bargain this year for a starting pitcher (something like $10 million) and he just gets better with each start. Taillon isn’t there yet – his starts are inconsistent – but SU believes he will emerge as the season unfolds. We just need to be patient. German has been excellent and SU trusts that the Yankees will not be stupid and put him in the bullpen when Severino is ready to return later this season. As the old saying goes, “Don’t be an idiot.” Just because German can pitch out of the bullpen, he is clearly a solid starter.

Sorry to hear about Aaron Hicks having surgery which pretty much ends his season but the reality is that he is not what they had hoped for. He is decent as a right-handed hitter but just pulls everything left-handed into the shift. Clearly, they can do better. Florial is in the minors and if he does well at AAA, he should be brought up. I am done with Clint Frazier – just can’t watch that anymore – and Gardner is showing some signs of going on a roll finally. The reality for the Yankees is that they are a team that will rely on their pitching all year to try and win low scoring games as the offense will be challenged. This roster will not win a World Series. But there is time for additions.

SU likes the NBA play-in formula. The Golden State games were very exciting and both came down to the final seconds. Proud of Jordan Poole from Michigan who has made himself into an NBA player the 2nd half of this year and made some big shots down the stretch last night.

Excited to see what the Knicks can do in the playoffs before a 13,000 person strong fan base for the home games. Props to their new management team which has made some moves that were certainly not obvious. Randle has totally changed his game this year and Derrick Rose has accepted his bench role without a word. They play hard defensively on every possession and have a lot of upside in the years to come. Atlanta’s coach is already trying to work the refs by saying that the NBA wants the Knicks to advance and will give them all the calls. Please.

I must admit that it’s hard to root for the Nets. They have a legitimate chance to win it all but too many unlikeable players for SU (Irving, Harden). Irving may be the best 1-on-1 players in the NBA but he needs to stop talking to the media – way too annoying. There are so many great players in the NBA – the Nets don’t need to tolerate his idiocy.

Paging Mike Tauchman

Just read that Aaron Hicks has a “torn tendon sheath in his left wrist.” Aaron Boone says that they will try and treat it with medicine but surgery is a possibility. Er, maybe trading Tauchman was not the smart move? Do you really want to play Brett Gardner and Clint Frazier every day now? They are going to have to roll the Generational One out there in the outfield once in a while. Why not in Baltimore? Left field is a small piece of ground to cover. Just avoid crashing into the wall.

The reality for the Yankees is that even though they are winning now, they cannot hit and score runs. Not much margin for error. Clint Frazier is approaching a negative batting average and Gardner looks like he should have retired last year. Tauchman would have been just the ticket now. Btw, he is starting for the Giants, batting lead-off and plays every day.

And so it goes.

Where Did the Offense Go in Baseball?

SU looked up the stats this morning. I mean, there is a no hitter pitched every other day now. What is up with that? In the American League, the median team batting average is .237. The Yankees are at .225. The Yankees are 11th in runs scored, and are the only team with no triples. The Mets team average is .236 (NL median is .234) and they are last in runs by a lot although they have played about 4-5 fewer games for various reasons.

The issue for baseball and its fans is that the product is boring. SU read that the average hits per game per team is 7.7 hits. There are so many strikeouts and the games are lasting between 3 and 4 hours. They are using a slightly smaller baseball this year – and SU thought the reason was to cut down on the number of home runs. I don’t know if it has had that effect but for me, I would rather see more offense and I don’t mind the home runs. I get the analytics people who say you can score quicker with a home run vs. 2 – 3 singles/doubles. But for the fan, you have a long time between pitches, a million swings and misses or foul balls, and little action in terms of guys stealing bases, hit and running, bunting and dare I say it, hit to the opposite field (WHAT???? WE NEVER DO THAT. JUST KEEP PULLING IT INTO THE SHIFT).

MLB is experimenting with rule changes in the minor leagues and SU predicts you will see this in the majors quickly. This is a big time problem and younger fans will not hang in there for 3 – 4 hour games with no action. Now, maybe the warmer weather will result in more runs – could be. However, I just see pitchers all throwing in the mid-high 90s and not a lot of action.

Miguel Andujar is finally getting his shot. He needs to produce and fast or else it’s back to the alternate site for him. Mike Ford has been awful – SU feels badly for him as he has blown his chance. Clint Frazier is showing signs of life finally but at some point, Cashman is going to have to find more left-handed bats. The Generational One is carrying the team but those streaks do not last forever. Scherzer going for the Nationals today. SU is on the no-hitter watch. The Yankees are perfect for him. Keep an eye out for today’s game.

Other theories out there for what is going on? Is moving the mound back a couple of feet a game changer? Outlaw the shifts? Fire all the batting coaches? Teach minor leaguers to bunt and hit to the opposite field? Make all games 7 innings? Stay tuned…

Question: Do Designated HItters Need a Day Off?

SU has been monitoring the number of days off that Giancarlo Stanton has been given in 2021. He is a full-time DH – they never roll him out to play left field. Keep in mind that in all of his years in the National League with the Marlins, the Generational One played right field on a regular basis. Somehow, he has become a bit brittle in the American League.

SU has been running the numbers through its sophisticated models over and over again. Based on our in-depth calculations, it appears that a DH comes to bat either 4 or 5 times a game. Now, the walk from the dugout to home plate varies by stadium. Oakland, for example, has an especially long walk to the plate. However, in baseball there is no clock so you can do that more slowly. We have also factored in the occasions when you might break a bat or need more pine tar which involves walking a few steps back to the dugout. We do not factor in home and away games as those even out over the course of the year. For Stanton, as a right-handed hitter, it’s a longer walk from the first-base dugout vs. the third-base dugout.

Now, when you hit a home run, you jog around the bases. Not too strenuous although the first few steps out of the box may involve a slightly faster pace although the Yankees certainly discourage that for Gary Sanchez. Strike outs involve no running. Walks involve walking.

Bottom line: SU says he needs to play every day. Every day. He is the Yankees’ hottest hitter now and this is not a roster with many of those guys. Most are comfortably below .200 and show no signs of movement up (nor do they worry about being benched as they are right-handed hitters and they know only right-handed hitters are allowed to play). And, when Luke Voit returns, he may need some days as DH with a recuperating knee. Put Stanton in the outfield. SU says this is not like the NBA where you are sprinting up and down the court. Just stand out in left field for minutes on end and then jog after the occasional fly ball. Do not go any further than the warning track – no walls please. And I don’t care if you catch the ball. I mean they roll Clint Frazier out there most games and he is an adventure on his best days. Stanton only has to jog – all the time.

I know you are wondering how Mike Tauchman is doing with the SF Giants since he was traded last week. SU has been monitoring: he has started all 4 games (what? no day off?) and is 5 for 16 with 1 home run and 5 rbis. That is .313 for those scoring at home. Now consider: in 4 games, he has more rbis than Clint Frazier (3) and Gary Sanchez (4) for the entire season. Ahem.

The Tauchman Era Begins in SF

For those of you keeping score at home, Mike Tauchman debuted last night for the Giants in center field and went 3 for 4 with an rbi and a run scored. Clearly not good enough in New York to play ahead of Hicks in centerfield and his .180 average or Frazier in left with his .140 numbers. SU says the issue is that he hits left-handed. Cashman can now continue on his quest to field an entirely right-handed line-up. We are close now. Once Voit returns at first base, that just leaves Hicks in centerfield as the only lefty. And this makes sense in Yankee Stadium because…?

Meanwhile, Frazier broke out last night with a home run and a double. Clearly he is more relaxed with Tauchman gone and will take off now. On the opposite end is Sanchez who is basically splitting time with Higashioka at catcher. SU’s Yankee favorite is now Higgy and he needs to get the majority of starts until Sanchez starts to hit to right field. And that will never happen. Bottom line: the champion Yankee teams of the 1990s hit to all fields, hit for average and put the ball in play. The 2021 version strikes out, is oblivious to who is on base and just swings for the fences. The analytics may say it’s all about runs and who cares when they come or how you get them. Not a winning formula in October.

SU is now watching Knick games. Love the hustle, defense, camaraderie and effort. Hoping more fans can come to the playoff games. What a change from the Carmelo era. Even Derrick Rose is passing.

All eyes on the NFL draft tonight. With all of the QBs in play, a bit more excitement than usual for SU. Jet fans: who is your quarterback of the future?

SU IS ALL POWERFUL

Never doubt the clout of SU. Tauchman, Gardner and Mike Ford are all in the Yankees’ line up tonight. Clearly, Brian Cashman has been paying attention. Odor, Hicks and Frazier sit. End of an era. Fingers crossed that Ford and Tauchman do something positive.