I don’t think the answer is obvious on this one. On the one hand, if Judge had signed a long-term deal before the season started, would he have played with the same level of intensity? Would he have been as motivated? Would he have felt pressure to justify the big contract? More likely to pace himself and take some games off?

As he is playing now for his next contract, he obviously took a huge risk. He could have had a season like Stanton’s (.210) with injuries and an inability to get on base. Or Judge could have had a more typical season with lots of strikeouts and the inevitable trip to the Injury List for a couple of months. Given his numbers this year, it’s all the more impressive as he is basically putting his career year together at the perfect time in his walk year. Most players would have fallen short, gotten distracted with all of the questions about his contract and probably under-performed. Judge is on the verge of winning the Triple Crown which is almost as remarkable an achievement as passing Roger Maris in home runs. No doubt (assuming he doesn’t fail a drug test) he will be viewed as the true, legitimate single season home run leader given that McGwire, Bonds and Sosa are all tainted by PEDs.

You have to figure the Yankees will do whatever it takes to keep Judge. And the likelihood is that his future years will involve some injuries as that has been his M.O. for most of his career. And of course, the long-term deals always end badly for the last few years. But Judge is the face of the franchise, always does the right thing, respects the game and his teammates as well as the opposition. And who knows? Maybe the home plate umpires will even figure out that the low strike calls below his knees are actually balls.

Judge’s numbers in a year when the average batting average is .242 is amazing given that he is a slugger. And by the way, he IS the MVP. The Yankees are a middle of the pack team without Judge in the AL East this year.

Frankie Montas to the IL. Thank goodness. Not a New York kind of performer. No need to put him on the post-season roster. Harrison Bader with 2 hits and 3 rbis in his first game with the Yankees. A week’s worth of production for Hicks. You have to hope Stanton’s grand slam will finally get him going now. He is huge for their post-season chances. Yankee bullpen is gassed due to so many 5-inning starts by the starters. Just too much usage. Chapman looked surprisingly good last night; he may be ready to take back the closer role.

Roger Federer says good bye this weekend playing one last doubles match Friday night – most likely with Nadal. Pretty cool.

Will Judge be a $300 million man this off season?

SU says do not draw too many conclusions from the first week of NFL action. My experience is that a win creates unrealistically high expectations for teams that win, and for teams that lose, well “there goes the season” is usually just too negative. The truth is somewhere in the middle unless you are talking about the NY teams where the 1st series of the game is representative of what the season will bring.

SU does make this observation. The desire of NFL head coaches to avoid injuries in the preseason games (which is certainly justified) causes the simplest plays to become challenging in the first game of the season. Did you see the Bengals try and kick and extra point or a game winning field goal in OT? Yikes. There were so many missed field goals and fumbled snaps yesterday.

For NY fans, you have to get the Red Zone Channel. Of course, you need to be ready to be over-stimulated with scoring plays for 6 hours which as we get older is not a great thing. But it is just not fair to generally be limited to watching the Jets and Giants for 17 weeks. SU must admit that I tuned in to the Giants game for most of the 4th quarter and give props to the new coach for going for the 2-point conversion and the win. This strategy probably won’t work next time but no doubt he won his players’ hearts and minds with that move even if the Titans had converted on that last second field goal attempt. Good for NY football fans to get that first win out of the way before we are into October.

The men’s tennis world anointed 19-year old Carlos Alcaraz as the next great thing with his US Open win. He has the whole game, can volley at the net and is super fast. Will he win 20 grand slams? Hey, it’s still early but he has the mindset and attitude to do it. He also has the #1 target on his back now and big expectations so we will see. But he seems like a great kid and is respectful of his opponents following in the footsteps of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic who certainly have always carried themselves well on the court whether winning or losing. SU is also hoping that Tiafoe can continue to improve and polish his game now that he has had a taste of winning a Grand Slam. He is the consummate entertainer but needs to show that he can do this in the other tournaments. His strokes are a bit unorthodox but he is good for tennis and especially American tennis.

Finally, the Yankees have righted the ship for a week. Thank goodness for the Minnesota Twins. Aaron Hicks also did Aaron Boone a major favor by not hustling after a dropped fly ball on Friday night causing the fans to erupt (when they are chanting “Joey Gallo, Joey Gallo” at you, well, that is not a good thing). Boone pulled him from the game and that will make it easier for Boone to never play Hicks again this season (could happen). Gleyber Torres has reawakened and Stanton is showing signs of getting hot and we know that when he gets hot, it lasts for several weeks. The Rays have a lot of Toronto and Houston on the schedule down the stretch and it’s hard to see them running the table. SU likes having the rookies play and I am interested to see what Harrison Bader is all about as he is about a week away.

At this point, a “successful” season for the Yankees has to mean getting to the World Series. The Mets are hanging on to their first place lead with the Braves in hot pursuit. That is actually a big deal as the first place team avoids the Dodgers until the NLCS while the wild card will have to go through the Dodgers in the Division round. That is a reason to do what is necessary to win the Division at the expense of resting players for the playoffs.

Brian Cashman must be excited this morning. Rizzo gets an epidural shot for his back and will be out this weekend. Benintendi feels a pop in his wrist while swinging and is going for an MRI today. That will not be a good outcome. Assuming that Aaron Hicks is not in the lineup, Cashman can now field an entirely right-handed lineup. Perfect in Yankee Stadium with the short porch in right field (not). Opponents are going to make sure that they throw only right-handed pitchers against the Yankees the rest of the way.

The epic collapse this year is in full swing now on this road trip. The Yankees’ road record is down to 34 – 33. Amazing after the great start to the season. The fans on Twitter are up in arms and are looking to fire both Boone and Cashman. SU does not feel like it’s Boone’s fault. The roster offensively is so limited – he has has few choices to mix and match. The Montgomery trade was a head scratcher (6 shutout innings last night for the Cardinals) and Montas is looking like a big-time bust.

As pointed out by long-time subscriber, M. Benowich,a few weeks ago, losing the division title this year will go down in the record books as an all-time collapse. That was a 15-game lead at one point. They may hang on as Tampa Bay and Toronto have a lot of head-to-head games remaining but the Yankees need a spark from somewhere and it’s likely going to have to be a minor leaguer.

SU has to comment on Serena Williams. While I have never been a fan, I have no issue with the tennis world giving her a nice send-off in this US Open. Now, the coverage on ESPN has been way over the top (I mean there are limits to this). SU’s issue with Serena goes back to her behavior at the US Open in two events where she threatened a lineswoman in one and then the umpire more recently. Zero mention of any of those incidents anywhere as no doubt it is all chalked up to “she’s an uber competitor who has fought for everything her entire life.” Fair statement. My other issue is that when Serena wins, it’s all about Serena. When she loses, it’s all about Serena. Usually no mention about the opponent and maybe being outplayed or giving credit to the other player. Same story last night for Tomljanovic who played the match of her life at 29 under the most trying circumstances. She prevailed in 3 hours with 23,000 fans cheering every service fault.

Yes, yes, yes – I get it. This was Serena’s moment but for SU, just continued a career long pattern. That’s it – you can disagree and I have no issue with that.

I think Alcaraz is now ready to break through with his first major. Nadal seems vulnerable as he continues to play himself into shape, and he would have to beat Alcaraz and Medvedev to win it all. Certainly possible but it feels like a big lift when he is not 100% health-wise.

SU had a free moment and decided to check on the Yankees’ batting averages with Runners in Scoring Position (RISP). You know what I mean. For Yankee fans, you watch a game and in those rare moments these days when someone comes up with a runner at 2nd or 3rd, you think, “What are the chances of this guy getting a hit?”

SU says that this is why the team will fall short in October.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/name/nyy/split/39

Clearly, there are some studs here: Judge (.356), Trevino (.356), and IKF (.326). But it’s easy to find the holes in the lineup: Torres (.188), Hicks (.171), LeMahieu (.192), Rizzo (.226) and Donaldson (.238). Not a winning formula.

They really, really miss Matt Carpenter. He covered up for Stanton’s down period in June and July. Tampa is now down 6 in the loss column. September may be interesting. There are still a lot of games to be played and while the pitching is holding steady, the offense is sinking. The Angels are basically just saying we won’t let Judge beat us. Other teams will take note.

NLCS preview this week as the Dodgers face the Mets. LA is down a few starting pitchers now. Chance for the Mets to make a statement.

Ugh. The dreaded “sometimes you just tip your cap” line came from Aaron Judge yesterday after another anemic Yankee offensive performance. Yes, you “tip your cap” in consecutive starts against Oakland A’s starters who had dreadful ERAs in both the minors and majors this year.

SU gives the Yankees credit for piecing the pitching staff together given the rash of injuries and now Chapman’s tattoo related infection on his leg (I must say that is a new one). The pitching generally keeps them in every game. But for this team, unless they hit home runs, they lose. Rizzo and Stanton are now trending into below .220 territory. LeMahieu has a toe injury and is trying to play through it but without success so far. Gleyber Torres has become an automatic out. SU has been saying for months that the Yankees are not an October team. When you face the best pitchers in the post-season, you need to be able to manufacture runs. Check out the Yankees in extra inning games. Clueless.

As stated earlier, my lower expectations have made the losses easier to take. SU was actually rooting for the no hitter yesterday (Aaron Hicks ruined that one – of course he did). The lead is still 7.5 games but 3 games in LA vs. the Angels where they never play well and then 3 in Tampa coming up. This could get interesting.

US Open starts today. The men’s bracket is a bit depleted this year with Federer (injury), Zverev (injury) and Djokovic (idiocy) out. Medvedev plays well at the Open and should win it all. You can’t count Nadal out although he has not played much of late but has an easy draw. Alcaraz may be ready to make a run. He loves the spotlight and should get his share of night matches. All eyes will be on Kyrgios but it’s hard to see him keeping it all together for 2 weeks playing in New York.

On the women’s side, it’s all about Serena. Not an SU fave (too many threats against lineswomen and umpires for my taste) but she is in the GOAT discussion and deserves a nice send-off. Coco Gauff may just be ready to break though in the next couple of weeks.

Yankee fans: do not go there. Don’t do it. Do not start hating on Frankie Montas. OK, we know that Jordan Montgomery is 3-0 with the Cardinals and has given up 1 run in his 3 starts (you have to consider that one of those wins was over the Yankees so he was facing a team of .220 hitters). And Harrison Bader is still in his walking boot; we don’t know what we have there but you do know that you need a fix in center field and Hicks is lost).

The natural inclination is to say that Montas is a flop and can’t pitch in New York. SU does not think that is the case. He does not show the Sonny Gray deer in the headlights look or say the Sonny Gray things. He wants to win, he wants to be here. Is he fully healthy? Well, you do wonder about that as he had shoulder issues as recently as July.

SU will not hate on Frankie Montas. I am taking a more positive approach to the Yankees now. I have lowered my expectations and that makes losing a bit easier to process. For example, here is how you need to do it. Runners on first and third, no outs and Josh Donaldson is up. Hope for a home run, a hit or a sac fly? No, no no. Go for the strikeout or maybe a wild pitch in there with the strike out so that the rally can continue. Just avoid the double play. You know statistically that he won’t get a hit more than once a week. At .219, why expect more?

Let’s try it out together. Bases loaded and no outs with Aaron Hicks up. Do you hope for a hit? Of course not. He hits .136 lifetime with the bases loaded. Do you want him to put the ball in play? NO! Take the strikeout and hope the next guy – LeMahieu can get it done. Again, the wild pitch is also a good outcome in there. Gleyber Torres with RISP? It will be a ground ball to shortstop as he ignores the right side of the infield being vacated. Sure, if he gets a hit, all good, but if you limit expectations, it’s a less frustrating viewing experience.

You should only put your hope in Judge, LeMahieu, Rizzo, Benintendi and Trevino. Judge won’t get anything to hit anymore so there is that.

At this point, the only way to get through the last month and a half of the season is to lower expectations. Chapman? Please. Loaisiga? Nope. So, Frankie Montas, SU says here’s to you. Please try your hardest, do your best and I will expect the 4 innings and 5 runs appearance with 95 pitches. Enjoy your stay in NY.

Did you catch the “Fire Aaron Boone” chants the other night after he brought Chapman in? Hey, not Boonie’s fault. Look at the roster. But it comes with the turf.

OK, who’s with me? Trust me: you will sleep better at night.

Yankee fans know what that headline is all about. What used to be a historic season is now a snoozefest. Games have become unwatchable. For SU, what is most frustrating is that guys come up to the plate, look at the shift and then make no adjustments. If you are Aaron Hicks, how are you not bunting down the 3rd base line every single time? He benefited by having Joey Gallo around for the fans to hate for much of the season. Well, Gallo is now gone (and hitting home runs for the Dodgers for those of you keeping score at home but that’s ok, no regrets) and the spotlight is now on Hicks.

But SU would take a different approach with Hicks. He is a switch hitter and one of the precious few left-handed hitters in the lineup. SU says put him in the middle of the order and let him feel important. Batting him 9th ahead of Judge is not working. I know Boone thinks Donaldson is one swing away from finally “locking in” but SU says he is a Dave Kingman redux and 7th is fine for him. Hicks has 3 more years on his contract (can you believe that?) and assuming that Hal will not want to eat $30 million, let’s boost his confidence. Until Bader is healthy enough (early September?), Hicks needs to play every day as this roster is not deep (at all). SU will ask the fans not to boo and to think positive thoughts.

If you listened to Stanton the other night, one did not come away with a confident feeling that he thinks he is over this Achilles strain injury. He is still worried and that is not a good sign. What it means is that he won’t run hard to first base, won’t play the outfield and will probably be afraid to really extend on his swing. SU says you cannot count on him long-term this year. The bigger need is for Carpenter to come back and then pray no foul balls off his back foot.

Andujar is failing to take advantage of chance #27 to stay in the lineup. If I was Boone, I would rethink the lineup. Put IKF at lead-off. He makes contact, always hustles, can steal a base and hits the best on the team with RISP. Boone is limited in what he can do in terms of who he plays right now. SU says a major lineup shuffle is in order just for kicks and fan entertainment. They are wasting great pitching performances from the starters every night and expecting Donaldson to do anything beyond a home run once every 2 weeks is silly. Lou Piniella and Billy Martin, back in the day, picked the lineup out of a hat when things went south. I know the analytics people would faint at that thought but hey, get the players to relax a bit.

The Rays are now down 8 in the loss column with plenty of games left vs. the Yankees this year. A collapse this season would be historic and make fans forget about the Red Sox 14-game blown lead in late July back in 1978.

Until then, feel free to keep the games on Amazon Prime and Apple TV so it’s easier to avoid watching. SU checked in on the Mets but they stopped hitting and scoring in Atlanta so I had better stop doing that. Obviously hurting the karma by tuning in.

SU is not and has never been a Serena Williams fan but she is the GOAT of women’s tennis and deserves her due as she bows out of professional tennis in the upcoming US Open. I watched her last night (not the Yankees) and she is not right physically. As we know, it’s hard to go out on your own terms and her body is clearly telling her it’s time. I am sure the USTA will do things right in a couple of weeks but hard to see her making a sustained run in Flushing.

Finally, finished the last episode of The Captain on ESPN on Derek Jeter. Definitely enjoyed the series and he was so much more forthcoming than he had been throughout his career. Maybe he can DH for the Yankees for 6 weeks?

SU knows and has heard it all:

1. “It’s the dog days of August.”
2. “Wait until Stanton returns to the lineup.”
3. “The goal is to play in October. It’s a brand new season then.”

Remember the 2000 Yankees? Lost every game down the stretch and still won the World Series. All may be true but SU has a feel for the team having watched enough games and much was papered over in the first half of the season. They won so many close games, so many morale building walk-off games and have a crazy good home record. The pitching and Judge have carried the team all year.

Now, the bullpen is leaking due to injuries and Holmes’s struggles. Cashman compounded that problem by optioning out Marinaccio for 3 weeks in order to keep Abreu who has already lost a game (as expected). Maybe they could have used him on this road trip? The starters basically remain solid enough. The problem with this year’s team is the offense. When you are so reliant on home runs, you look great when guys are cranking them out and you look terrible when they are not. See the struggles in extra innings when you have to have some situational hitting strategy.

The Yankees will go as far as their offense takes them. SU thinks the pitching is good enough. Yes, Montgomery has yet to give up a run in 2 starts since the trade for the Cardinals but if Bader can play a solid center field and hit .250, that move might pay off. Hicks is just so unproductive and the current roster has no one else to put in there. As noted before, Stanton was horrible in June and July before his injury but SU agrees that if can return and get hot, he can be a difference maker. He tends to stay hot for weeks vs. others who are hot for 2 games (see Josh Donaldson). Right now, there is no reason to ever pitch to Judge. Rizzo can get the occasional bit hit but you worry about his back now.

The Carpenter injury was HUGE. Cashman gets a lot of credit for signing him and he really produced from the left side. Gleyber is lost. Somehow they are still up 10 games in the standings but you are giving life to the Red Sox now and you know if the Yankees play Boston in October, they lose. SU cannot go through that again like last year.

The roster is what it is for the rest of the year unless you decide to give a couple of the youngsters a shot down in Scranton. SU says that Cashman has to be tempted to do just that. The next week is Tampa Bay, Toronto and the Mets – all at home.

Meanwhile, the Mets are serving notice that they are built for October. They are a scary match-up for any NL team – including the Dodgers. Both NY teams will be playing in mid-October but the guys in Flushing are certainly built to go further.

Joey Gallo hit a 3-run home run to left field last week as pointed out by long-time subscriber, B. Rosano. MLB has requested the ball for further analysis as Gallo’s swing cannot hit a ball to left field as we all know.

So, Yankee fans, SU has seen the comments on Twitter. Not pretty. Feeling confident? Lots of games to play? The floor is open.

Those diehard Yankee fans who stayed up to watch all (huh?) or at least part of last night’s game vs. Seattle, saw Matt Carpenter foul a pitch off of his back foot in his first at bat. YES announcer Cameron Maybin was right on it when he said that there are a lot of small bones in your feet and this is not a good thing. Well, sure enough, Carpenter broke a bone in his foot and may miss the rest of the season. Not clear yet.

Carpenter has given the team a huge lift from the left side of the plate for the Yankees – hits with power and RISP. This is a big loss but helps Cashman in achieving his dream of fielding a mostly right-handed lineup in a stadium that favors left-handed hitters. SU believes that they will recall Miguel Andujar for the 71st time this season to fill in for Carpenter but it’s a big, big blow to the team if Carpenter indeed misses the rest of the season. He’s hitting .293 at Scranton and he must take advantage of this chance while Stanton is out. Rizzo is still suffering from a bad back. Benintendi is showing signs of life – 2 doubles last night – so that helps from the left side. And of course Aaron Hicks is a switch hitter and makes outs from the 9-hole as needed batting left-handed. Tonight will be a good test vs. Castillo who they will face for the 3rd time this year. Will anyone make an adjustment? Bunt against the shift?

Josh Donaldson with 3 home runs last night. It is still shocking to see him get hits with RISP. Yankees have to hope he can stay hot for some stretch of games.

For you diehard Yankee fans, for the upcoming Sunday night game between the Red Sox and Yankees on ESPN, Michael Kay and A-Rod who do the alternate broadcast on ESPN2 will be joined by Derek Jeter. This is worth watching just for the awkwardness between these two former stars and former friends. Definitely worth checking it out for a few minutes.

Jacob deGrom made his mark yesterday in a masterful performance against the 2nd place Atlanta Braves. It was definitely a statement game and capped off a great weekend for the Mets taking 4 of 5 vs. the Braves. SU has been saying all season that the Mets with a healthy deGrom are a major factor in the post-season. When you can roll out deGrom and Scherzer in a short series, you put tremendous pressure on the other team. The Mets have enough offense to get to the ALCS and take on the mighty Dodgers who now have Joey Gallo (for the moment until he is DFA’d).

Meanwhile, the Yankees have lost 5 straight and are 9 – 16 in the last 25 games. Every team does through a lull each season and clearly the Yankees are lulling as we speak. The Mets now have the same record as the Yankees but are trending in a different direction. SU notes that when the Yankees won all of the close games in the first half of the season they were carried by Judge, Rizzo and Stanton. Well, Stanton is out for his annual injury (Achilles is the body part of choice in 2022) and Rizzo has back issues. Judge has been the rock and as we know, historically he is not a rock. The reality is that Judge can’t miss any time. He covers up for an amazing lack of production from half the team. Even Michael Kay has seen enough on the Yankee broadcasts as he has started to actually recite all of the “0 for” streaks that the hitters are going through (looking at you Hicks, Torres, Benintendi). What it all means is that if they don’t hit home runs, the likelihood of putting a rally together with multiple hits is very, very small. SU has run the numbers, and trust me, really small.

SU will not panic about Benintendi… yet. He needs to ease his way in and I believe he will eventually start to hit. Montas was pretty terrible yesterday but he does throw hard and truth be told, if he is not what they hoped for, then it will be a short October run. They are a half game ahead of the Astros now and for 2022, best record means a whole lot.

SU is unhappy that Marinaccio was sent down for 3 weeks as Cashman did not want to lose Albert Abreu. The bullpen has to throw a ton of innings given how limited the starters are this year in pitch count. Rolling Abreu out there over and over again is going to be a problem.

Bottom line: you are never as good as you look when you are winning, and you are never as bad as you look when you are losing. SU totally agrees with this. But… the good vibes on the Yankees for the first half of the season are gone now and the Montgomery trade will take some time to get over for some of the players. If Bader turns out to be the real deal and can put Hicks on the bench, then that can flip in September.

The next two series are interesting. 3 in Seattle and then 3 in Boston. The Red Sox are terrible but play their best against the Yankees. And then Tampa Bay and Toronto for 7 at home. Buckle up.