Baseball is hard to explain. In the Yankees – Red Sox series, scoring any runs was at a premium, and all of the games were close and low scoring. In this series with Toronto? Runs all over the place. The Yankees showed some spine last night after falling behind 6-1 in the 3rd inning, and full disclosure, SU thought they were done for the year. They had shown little in the first two plus games but last night, the offense roared to life including hits with runners in scoring position (RISP for Yankee fans who believe me, are generally not famiiar with that stat nor are their hitters).

So, what happened last night and what can we expect tonight and perhaps Friday if needed?

1. Aaron Judge said enough is enough. He basically said let me show you what I can, in fact, do in the post-season. His 3-run home run off the foul pole was epic on an inside 100-mph fastball. He’s hitting about .500 for the post-season and SU says Toronto is going to walk him intentionally early and often starting tonight. They did that in the regular season and now seems like an appropriate time to go back to that strategy.
2. Aaron Boone pushed the right buttons with the relievers. It is hard to believe that the Yankee relievers actually shut out the Blue Jays for almost 6+ innings in this game. And he did it without having to use Luke Weaver who SU says is going to be the wild card tonight. The odds of every reliever being good every game is very, very small and based on their season long performance, hard to see that continuing.
3. Yankee hitters are now very familiar with the Toronto relievers. John Smoltz was correct on this (full disclousre: SU muted the announcing periodically throughout the game as does anyone want to keep hearing Smoltz predict the next pitch? And he is less than 50% accurate so why bother? Admit it: if you were sitting next to him during a game, you would have to go and get a beer several times during the game and hope for long lines at the beer stand). Anyway, the Yankee hitters have now seen them all and while they were unhittable at times in games 1 and 2, not so much last night. And tonight is going to be a bullpen game for the Blue Jays.
4. Cam Schlittler needs to be good tonight. Not 8 innings and 12 strikeouts good but at least good through 6 innings. The Blue Jay hitters will put the ball in play and will foul off pitches. This will be a tougher opponent than the Red Sox.
5. Tonight will come down to the late inning relievers. SU sees a close game and we will see if the Yankee relievers can be perfect again. And I do think Luke Weaver is going to show up – and it may be in extra innings. And yes, terrifying.

If this goes to game 5, advantage Toronto with Yesavage (and Gausman) waiting in the wings and the Blue Jays play much better at home on the turf. There is also the possibilty that Toronto starts Gasuman on 3 days rest tonight as you still have Yesavage for game 5 as insurance. For SU, at this point, I will take a game 5 and feel like they showed up and did not roll over. SU does predict Anthony Volpe is benched for tonight – he is just striking out in every at bat and is lost. Let him be a bench player tonight. Boone must keep Rice in the starting lineup – he had a huge sac fly late against a left-handed reliever. Stanton is showing signs but until he hits to right field with power, we will not see the October version.

It will be cold and windy tonight in the Bronx. More of that football game feel from the fans. Advantage Yankees.

Things are looking bleak for the Yankees this morning after a lost weekend in Toronto. In game 1, Kevin Gausman, who was starting against the Yankees for the 41st time in his career (can you believe that?) was mostly unhittable as the Yankee hitters went into each at bat swinging at the first pitch. OK, I get it: you don’t want to be at the mercy of his split finger pitch with 2 strikes but it’s not like you never faced this dude before. Anyway, bad strategy – did not work – and per usual, the bullpen imploded.

In game 2, same kind of pitcher in this young guy, Yesavage. Totally dominant but at least they took a few pitches this time. Unhittable – literally. Fried was very hittable (his career stats say he is very good or very bad in postseason games) and that was another blowout. The good news for fans is that this was an NFL Sunday and there was always the Red Zone channel as an option but in the end, another non-competitive game.

In a 7-game series, you can rebound from this. In a 5-game series? Not so easy. SU is sure that Boone and the Yankee players will say that they need to take it one game at a time, protect home field and get ready for a game 5 with Max Fried on track to start again (of course, Toronto will have either Gausman ready to start for the 42nd time vs. the Yankees or Yesavage or perhaps both for a game 5). SU recalls the 2001 World Series vs. Arizona where the Yankees lost games 1 and 2 by the scores of 9-1 and 4-0. These two games felt very similar.

I have to say that I am very surprised at how meekly the Yankees are playing in this series. They were dominated in Toronto all year but usually the playoffs are a different animal. The Blue Jays put the ball in play (what a concept) and play good defense. SU expects that the Yankees will be more competitive in game 3 tomorrow night but with Weaver MIA, the bullpen will be extra scary in a close game. It is possible Toronto will not look like the same team with their 3rd starter, Shane Bieber, pitching who the Yankees, again, have faced many times before in his career. In game 4, it sounds like an opener for Toronto as they have injuries to their starting staff going into the playoffs.

It is certainly possible. Aaron Judge, while getting on base with walks and singles, has yet to come through in the clutch and we are all waiting on that. Stanton was 1 for 17 before a couple of late hits yesterday.

SU will say this: the embarrassment of this weekend will make Aaron Boone’s tenure very shaky if they exit in 3 games. You have to wonder if Hal will have seen enough. Note to viewers: you may want to use the mute button on John Smoltz on FOX. Way too much caffiene in his system. Please stop talking.

SU is not feeling it but is ready to be surprised. It would be nice to see at bats with deep counts. I will be satisfied getting to a game 5 for this series win or lose at this point but let’s start with a competitive game 3.

You have to give credit to Aaron Boone for keeping the team together after losing game 1 to the Red Sox and winning the Wild Card series. He has not fared well facing off against Alex Cora in past years and this one has to feel very good. You know last night that he was tempted to take out Schlittler in the 6th and 7th innings. He had already been beaten up about removing Fried too early in game 1 (SU disagreed by the way – that was the right move) and he sometimes fails to trust what he is seeing during the actual game vs. relying too much on the analytics.

Schlittler was throwing strikes at 100 mph over and over again, and the Red Sox hitters were being overpowered. Just think about it: Boone let a starter go 8 innings. Never happens. SU says it is probably more of an indictment of the Yankees’ bullpen and not wanting to put Weaver back out there or Williams who, while better of late, is still a bit of a gamble.

Did you see Boone say after the game that game 3 was the most pressure he has ever faced in any Yankee playoff game – either as a player or a manager? I believe he felt his job was on the line if they lost and while I am sure he is financially secure and can always return to broadcasting, no one wants to get fired. We will never know if Hal would have pulled the trigger but SU says it would have likely happened.

SU watched the post-game on YES and it was heart warming to hear the comments from Jazz, Judge and others about Boone and their trust in their teammates. Loved Stanton telling young fans to NOT do what he did and watch his not-to-be home run hit off the wall early in the game. Say what you want about Stanton but he is a stand up guy and handled that well.

So, Toronto awaits and they handled the Yankees easily all year. SU now feels that karma is going to take over and that the Yankees will beat them in 4 games. Too many good vibes now and you have to figure the players will play this series more freely as it’s not the Red Sox and there is little history with Toronto in the post-season – at least not like vs. other teams. Expect the offense to pick up a bit and more runs to be scored. I know they struggle on artifical turf and the Blue Jays will run on the outfielders and the catcher but there has to be a huge weight that has been lifted now.

Of course… all bets are off as soon as Devin Williams blows a lead. But this next round feels easier to me. Thoughts?

Come on, Yankee fans, you should have seen last night’s game coming. If you have watched the Yankees all season long, this game played out just like so many others against the better teams with the better pitchers. Cases in point:

1. Boone went with the platoon lineup. Rosario was 6 for 9 vs. Crochet with a home run this year so SU can see the rationale there. Sitting Chisholm? Not so much but Boone did not want to sacrifice defense on the left side of the infield. OK – SU gets it. Didn’t work out but defensible.
2. Fried exits with one out in the 7th and having thrown over 100 pitches – a season high. He had labored the prior inning and you want him fresh for the next rounds. As SU has said previously, the Yankees’ bullpen is basically a crapshoot every game. You need a 3-run cushion (or more) if you want to comfortably win a game with the lead. I didn’t have that much of an issue there but you do hold your breath with any of these relievers from game to game. Last night, it was Weaver’s turn to implode and truth be told, it took a nice running catch by Judge with the bases loaded to even hold it there at a 1-run deficit. The relievers are terrifying and they will be again tonight.
3. The Yankees did not score with the bases loaded and no one out in the 9th inning. Long-time subscriber, D. Harmon, notes that the Yankees are the first team in MLB postseason history to have the bases loaded with nobody out in the bottom of the 9th but not score a run and lose the game. At least they made history! If you have watched this year’s team in extra innings, you knew this could very well happen. This team is terrible with RISP – they score via the home run for the most part and unless someone was going to hit a homer there (or maybe we see a wild pitch which the Yankees have often benefited from this year), it would be a surprise to have seen a single there. The key at bat was Stanton’s with no one out but hey, it was still September and he is not good until October. His doubleplay in the 1st inning was also a killer. SU is sure he will own up to it and be ready tonight. He failed in game 1 but as we know, baseball is a game of failure.
4. No pinch runner for Goldschmidt in the 9th inning. SU thought they could have put in Dominguez for him after Stanton struck out as who were you saving him for at that point? He would have scored on the Chisholm fly ball in the 9th but in the end, does not matter.

Is the season now over? Come on. Rodon has been very consistent this season and he is a highly competitive guy. SU expects he will give them a quality start for 6 innings but then, here you go again with the bullpen. Can the Yankees muster more offense against Bello? He’s right handed so you can play your better players and now it’s October, so expect Stanton to make up for last night. But they will need a substantial lead to get through the final 3 innings.

The Yankees will still need to overcome the questionable moves by Boone during the game but they should be able to do that. SU expects the Yankees to prevail in game 2 and then set up an agonizing game 3 filled with more drama and angst. But that is why we watch!