Full disclosure: SU has not had the staff do the normal deep dive into the analytics for this year’s baseball season predictions. I must say I am amazed at how all of the preseason prediction articles seem to be very analytics-based to the point where I have no idea what they are talking about.

SU goes by feel. So, here is what I feel:

1. SU is not excited (at all) about the Yankees for 2024. They did a number on me in 2023 to the point where I no longer cared. Never happened before – even going back to the dark days of the late 1960s (OK, SU is old). Hal Steinbrenner is managing to a budget this year – clearly – and it seems very apparent now that if Gerrit Cole does not return later this year, and is not effective even if he does, they are going nowhere. The Yankees traded so many of their pitching prospects the last two years that there is no depth. It all comes down to Carlos Rodon being really good, and hard to feel confident about that. The offense will be better and there are even some new left-handed bats in there (amazing) but the Yankees will need to out-slug their opponents all year. There is not much of a bench – at least at the moment.
2. So much talk about Giancarlo Stanton and the “chip” he is carrying around from last season. SU says what chip? You are paid $34 million a year to perform and be in the lineup. He has done neither the last few years. Stanton is a good guy and he stands up in the locker room but please, just produce and everyone will love you. Glad he is leaner and maybe that will help him stay healthy. SU prediction: hot start and then plays in cold weather and we get the inevitable hamstring pull and 2 months on the IL. Hope I am wrong.
3. The over/under for the Yankees for SU is 90 wins which gets them a Wild Card and a loss early in the playoffs. Cashman no longer has the magic touch at the trade deadline. Not sure Judge can stay healthy, LeMahieu is already hurt and in decline. SU is not feeling it.
4. The Mets appear to be in a rebuild. How did that happen? Are they just a .500 team this year? Met fans will complain that Yankee fans are entitled but your owner has deep, deep pockets and is willing to spend to be good. It’s hard to say they are good right now.

Predictions: Atlanta over Baltimore in the World Series. SU believes it is the Braves’ time. They certainly have the players and the experience now. I think the gambling scandal with Ohtani’s interpreter will drag him down for much of the season. Yamamoto is not a sure thing. The Dodgers will win the division but making it out of the NL will not be easy – a number of solid teams there. It would be hard to believe that Ohtani was actually betting on games himself or having this guy place bets for him but time will tell what they discover in the investigation. No doubt there will be the chants from fans on the road. You have to assume he has never faced that type of thing before in his career.

People are very positive about the Orioles – almost too positive for SU. They should still win the AL East as it is no longer such a powerhouse. But they are very young and sometimes, teams do not progress in a straight line. Still feels like they are good enough to emerge from the AL.

The floor is open for your predictions. Am I being too negative about the Yankees? Are the Mets better than a .500 team?

SU has been enjoying the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament – both men’s and women’s games. I have to admit that I am much less familiar with the players on the men’s teams this year as compared to any other season. It’s a direct result of watching fewer games this year (thank you Juwan Howard for making Michigan basketball unwatchable) but also a function of the transfer portal and the impact of NIL money. Players switch teams to get more playing time or earn more NIL money every off-season and it’s hard to know who is playing for what team. When you combine that with the “one and done” players who jump to the NBA after their freshman seasons, well, you end up with new rosters every season for many teams.

Having said that, SU has observed something this year which I believe is a trend at the college level. I believe college coaches, mostly on the men’s side, run offenses that are basically exclusively one-on-one basketball. There are teams that literally don’t have an offensive scheme from what I can tell. Maybe they run a pick and roll to free up the guy going one on one. It harkens back to Mike Woodson when he was the coach of the Knicks. His offensive playbook was a pamphlet: give the ball to Carmelo on the wing, let him jab step 17 times while everyone else stands on 3-point line hoping for a pass.

SU watched the Northwestern – Florida Atlantic first round game and the FAU coach ran this offense. Northwestern’s Chris Collins knew this and had his team double team the one-on-one player as he started his move. Brilliant move as the FAU players had no idea where to throw the ball. None. Caused lots of turnover. But FAU is not alone – many other teams play the same way. Some are up tempo and it’s masked a bit but others play a slower pace and it’s all one on one.

For SU, this is unwatchable and unenjoyable. The beauty of basketball is constant movement, passing and finding the open man. It’s why I enjoy UConn women’s games so much. Those teams, no matter the talent which is top notch, are so unselfish, and they enjoy making the extra passes. There are men’s teams that do it as well – Duke, North Carolina, UConn. But so many do not and then they are exposed in the NCAAs when they play better teams who can defend a limited offensive scheme. If SU was ever coaching against one of these teams, I would do what Collins did at Northwestern. Man, that was easy and so disruptive. The FAU coach is the new Michigan coach (gulp) and I hope he does not bring that style of play to Ann Arbor.

SU saw an interesting stat on Tom Izzo at Michigan State. Preseason, his teams are always forecast to be top 10 – almost every year. And when you compare the preseason prediction with where his teams finish, well they always fall short. This tells me he is a great recruiter but not a great developer of talent. Or his talent is over-hyped. Few of the Michigan State players really shine in the NBA.

Am I old school and out of step with the times? I mean this is more of an NBA style of play in large part but it’s not fun.

Baseball starts this week! The Yankees refused to overpay for a free agent starting pitcher and will hope that Cole can return in a couple of months. For SU, this season hinges on whether Carlos Rodon is actually good. It will come down to that. SU will make its fearless predictions later this week for the 2024 season.

SU saw that ESPN’s Buster Olney has the Yankees making it to the World Series this year where they will fall to the Phillies. I have to believe he has access to insider information that indicates that the Yankees have pitching depth this year that is not available to larger public audience.

Their only chance to having a decent year in 2024 is for Gerrit Cole to be healthy. Twitter (uh sorry, X) is reporting that Cole is having an MRI on his pitching elbow according to Bryan Hoch of mlb.com. So far, we have seen Nestor Cortes get rocked in his starts as well as Rodon and Schmidt. If Cole is out for any length of time. SU’s over/under of 90 wins will be in jeopardy. Will Hal open the purse strings for Snell or Montgomery? Or do we just tank the season now and call it a day as the tickets are already sold?

A few random observations and thoughts today:

SU knows that Caitlin Clark is the real deal and a generational talent (Soto? Giancarlo Stanton?). However, SU says do not lose sight of Paige Bueckers on UConn who is bigger and stronger this year and is a force. She fills up every statistical category. The UConn women are still SU’s favorite college hoops viewing. They play the game the right way.

Man, the NY Knicks play hard every night but are just lacking the offensive players right now. If you watched the Sixers last night, they doubled Brunson and were not worried about leaving others unguarded. Someone needs to come off the injured list and soon. Or Alec Burks who was having a good year, needs to get comfortable and do what he was traded to do, as in score off the bench.

March Madness is almost upon us. Given the transfer portal, this is the first year that I can remember where I know almost nothing about the men’s college basketball teams. Michigan was unwatchable (which equals less viewing for SU) and the Big Ten always underachieves despite getting 8 – 9 teams in the dance every year. SU will make its fearless picks soon enough but this year will be wide open – which is a good thing.

Check out the New England Patriots Dynasty series on Apple TV. Very well done and interesting with behind the scenes interviews with all of the major players including Roger Goodell, Bob Kraft, Tom Brady, etc. SU is not a Pats’ fan but this has been a fun watch.