Yamamoto Makes His Decision

Yankee fans were just assuming that Yamamoto was going to end up in pinstripes. After all, this is New York, championship history, Hideki Matsui serving as ambassador, Judge and Cole to lure him in. Now, it turns out that Hal capped the Yankees’ bid at $300 million as he did not want to go higher than Cole’s deal and well, enough is enough. Reports are that Steve Cohen actually matched the Dodgers’ offer value ($325 million over 12 years) that included the Dodgers posting a $50 million payment to the Japanese team. Yamamoto gets a $50 million sign-on bonus.

SU is not mad at Steinbrenner not getting him. The Yankees really wanted him and made a competitive offer. SU has read about Yamamoto’s training regimen, focus on flexibility, throwing all the time, etc. and maybe he is truly a freak and will never have arm issues. Ever. But it sure seems like every pitcher that throws 99 mph has arm issues at some point and a 12-year deal may not end well.

For the Yankees, it’s a gut punch for sure. They are at a crossroads and they are not strong in their starting pitching. Carlos Rodon needs to be good and it certainly is not clear that he is. What’s a team to do? SU says here is a novel idea: grow your own. Stop relying on the free agent market. There are enough deep pocket owners now that the Yankees (or Mets) certainly cannot expect to outbid other teams for any free agent. The Giants, Phillies, Blue Jays and probably others were all in the mix here. It’s actually good for baseball that there are owners out there who can compete for the big contracts.

SU’s expectations for the Yankees in 2024 are modest at best in the competitive AL East. Soto is a nice addition but they traded some of their top pitching prospects over the past year, and their starters are never healthy (see Cortes, Rodon). No doubt, there is a plan B which will involve overpaying for Jordan Montgomery but look for some quick signings coming.

The Dodgers will have all the pressure on them in 2024, and they always seem to have the best regular season record and then fall short in the playoffs. Something to root for in 2024 as they are the new Evil Empire.

Should Hal have gone higher on his contract offer? Do the Mets have an image problem? The board is open.

Is Ohtani 10-year, $700 million contract actually reasonable?

On its face value, a 10-year, $700 million contract for a professional sports athlete does seem to be over the top. I know some of the money is back-loaded to help the Dodgers more effectively recruit and sign other players so they can field a competitive team. Ohtani is 29 years old so by the standards of other recent deals, age 39 is not so bad for the back end of one of these long-term deals.

SU says that if you break it down, you can make the case that $40 million for his hitting for 10 years is along the lines of Aaron Judge’s deal and actually that seems fair then. That leaves $300 million and 10 years for his role as a starting pitcher. Now, will he make it 10 years still pitching? Hard to say but he could transition into a closer role at some point later in his career. Plus he put fans in the seats – especially in LA and certainly on the road.

Ohtani is a freak in that he plays 2 positions very well – at an elite level. Maybe this isn’t so crazy?

“He’s a Transformational Bat”

Those were the words of Brian Cashman a couple of days ago talking about Juan Soto and what he could mean to the Yankees’ lineup. SU says: where have we heard that before? Ahhhhhh yes, it was Giancarlo Stanton who was a “generational talent.”

SU is trying to get excited about the Yankees’ trade for Juan Soto for many of the guys who actually started games for the Yankees in the 2023 season and were pretty good at it plus their top pitching prospect, Thorpe. I get it: the offense sucked in 2023 and they had to do something. They traded for Verdugo who SU does not like (I mean a Red Sox?) and who strikes me as a Josh Donaldson type personality in the clubhouse (not a good thing). In reading up on Soto, apparently he is a sub-par outfielder and a sub-par baserunner. He is left-handed though (Yay!) and this lineup is desperate for that.

Judge will now be the every day centerfielder at least until Jasson Dominguez is healthy and shows he can claim that spot in the outfield. No doubt, there are now too many outfielders but you know at least one will always be on the Injured List in 2024.

The word is that of course, the Yankees will sign Soto long-term even though Scott Boras is his agent and that Soto turned down a $440 million contract a couple of years ago. You have to figure the asking price will be $500 million+ for Soto covering until he is 45 years old. And if the Yankees reel in Yamamoto, who is expected to get $300 million, SU does not see how the math works for Soto long-term. SU also predicts today that Steve Cohen at the Mets will outbid Hal for Soto in free agency next off-season just because he can.

So, basically, it’s 2024 World Championship or bust. SU checked the roster and it looks like the Yankees are counting on Cortes to rebound (could be) and Rodon to pitch like his baseball card (can he really pitch in New York?). It feels like they are banking on Yamamoto or perhaps will sign Jordan Montgomery.

SU gives Cashman and Hal credit for doing something. As I have said in the past, I prefer the Atlanta Braves’ approach of signing your top prospects at an early age for multiple years but truth be told, we have not yet seen prospects who are deserving. Pereria and Peraza need to show more. Boone has already said LeMahieu is the starting 3rd baseman but SU says Peraza can stake his claim to that spot as DJ is on the downside of his career at this point. Pereria is the odd man out right now.

2023 took a lot of out SU with the Yankees. I stopped caring. Why am I still not excited for 2024 with the addition of Soto? Was this a good trade? I think it was a fair trade to be honest and I will root for Michael King to do well – he’s a good guy and very talented.

What do you all think?

College Football Playoffs: Decisions, Decisions

The world anxiously awaits the decision of the Committee for determining the college football playoff Final Four teams. If ever there was a year screaming for the 12-team format, well, this was it. SU asks going forward, will there still be Conference championship games? I mean, how many games to these student-athletes (earning millions in NILs) need to play if there will be extra playoff rounds?

And, then, what is the purpose of the conference championship games? Suppose Michigan and Ohio State meet in the last game next year. If they finish 1/2 in the Big Ten, do they then play each other again the following week? And if they both make the playoffs, is it possible they play a 3rd time at some point in the same season? Does anyone really want to see that??

Here is the way SU sees it for this year. Btw, I apologize in advance if FOX cuts in for a commercial break while I write this. FOX has made watching college football truly painful. I know it’s all about the money but at some point, it’s stupid. And, of course, they cut away for a dramatic and important video review of a fumble. Do better.

Washington and Michigan are #1 and #2. The PAC-12 Conference was the best conference this year and you can make the case that Washington had the most wins against top teams like Arizona, USC, Oregon, etc. Both are undefeated. SU believes that the Committee will make Michigan #1 but I would have no problem with Washington in that slot.

What is interesting this year is the number of undefeated teams. It feels like there are more than usual. Florida State won the ACC and while they are down their starting quarterback, they are still undefeated. Let’s assume they get their second string QB back now for January 1st, are they deserving to be in?

The SEC teams will say that the SEC is the best conference and it would be a farce if one of those teams was not included. Note to reader: they were not the best conference this year. Georgia’s best win this year was over Missouri (meh) while Alabama lost to Texas (at home), barely won over Auburn and had some other close games against mediocre teams. But they beat Georgia and Nick Saban is making his claim to be included.

Texas won the Big 12 and beat Alabama. Their only loss was to Oklahoma. They are deserving this year. Let’s assume they are in and let’s assume Georgia has to be out now as they lost the head-to-head to Alabama. That leaves Alabama vs. Florida State.

Supposedly, the Committee can include “best available players” in its decision. They could use that to disqualify Florida State as they lost their starting quarterback. But SU asks this question: if Alabama’s quarterback was injured last night, would the Committee count them out for that same reason? Or if Georgia had won last night but lost its QB, would they be disqualified even with an undefeated record?

For college football it’s a win-win as this creates a lot of buzz, controversy and conversation for the next month. Some school will be pissed off – that is clear. Again, next year it doesn’t matter as there will be 12 teams in. We get one more year of this.

For SU, after sleeping on this, I do think it should be Michigan, Washington, Texas and Florida State. I don’t see how you don’t allow the winner of one of the Power Five conferences into the playoffs with a perfect record. They beat everyone on the schedule. Nick Saban will say he has no motivation to play top teams out of the conference (Texas for this year), and should not be penalized for that. He’s right on that point but Alabama has always played those teams. They just happened to lose this one – and at home. Feels like that home loss here should make a difference.

The floor is open: what do you think?