Regression to the Mean Is Upon the Yankees

Yankee fans have no complaints about the first half of the season in 2022. Players have generally stayed healthy and they have a boatload of come from behind wins. Until the last week and a half, they were on a record pace for wins in the regular season.

But that was then and this is now. They will still win the division – some leads are just too large to blow. But the flaws that SU has commented on all season are starting to look a little more significant. Here is what’s going on:

  1. Aaron Judge cooled off. Judge has carried the team all year. Yes, Stanton and Rizzo have had their bursts along the way but Judge has been solid – even seeing his average go over .300 which for baseball in 2022, is equivalent to hitting .375. But now Judge is slumping as he chases the low and outside slider that he had pretty much avoided most of the first half. Stanton is in a prolonged slump but you know he will emerge at some point, lock in and be solid the rest of the way. Just hard to know when that will be. SU expects nothing from Hicks and Donaldson, and LeMahieu has become a .260 singles hitter at this point of his career.
  2. The starters are good… but not great. They were really good for a long time as a group, and stayed healthy. But now Severino is out with a lat strain (and an innings limit), Jameson Taillon is definitely regressing to the mean, and Cole while good is not the same pitcher without the sticky stuff. SU is actually fine with this group going into the post-season. They are deep and consistent but none of them is going to spin that 8-inning gem.
  3. The Yankees have won a ton of close games.. but that is hard to sustain. In baseball, if you play a lot of close games, at some point you are just not going to keep winning them. This week has been agonizing as they have failed with RISP late in games a lot – especially against the Red Sox but even against the lowly Reds. The wild pitch has been their biggest weapon late in games.
  4. The bullpen has over-achieved. Even with Green gone and Chapman out and now “not to be trusted”, the relievers have been great. There are cracks showing now and Boone has to be careful not to wear out the Kings and the Peraltas. German and Sears can be the answers.
  5. Joey Gallo is just not what you want. SU knows that Cashman changed his modus operandi along the way abandoning his desire for contact hitters for the Andruw Jones types. Gallo is the latest in that line of under-achievers. They can do better – be it Andujar or Florial in the minors. Hicks has been more productive of late. We all long for a .280 hitter – not even .300 as that is too rare. Someone who has a high baseball IQ against the shifts. Set Joey Gallo free. The right move for everyone involved.

SU is not a spoiled Yankee fan. They have over-achieved for the roster that they have for the first half but you can see them ending up with 100 wins or so in the end. The AL East is tough. My one personal observation is that I am no longer especially bothered by the losses. I watch Josh Donaldson pinch hit in the 11th inning with a man on 2nd. I know he won’t get a hit. Hicks is up with 2 outs. I know he won’t get a hit. I suppose the safe thinking is that this team may win 105 games – don’t make any major changes. But if the goal is a World Series – not to win it necessarily but at least participate – this team is not getting past Houston, and a short series against a flawed Red Sox team also feels challenging.

Note to Brian Cashman: get some more contact hitters. Please. Don’t put so much pressure on Trevino to get clutch hits.

2 thoughts on “Regression to the Mean Is Upon the Yankees”

  1. You’ve made some good points but all teams do go into some minor slumps along the way. It’s going to be how u finish that will determine who the favorites will be. Let’s get into early September before we determine who the real favorites are.
    What would u say if right after the All Star break that the Yanks go down to Houston and sweep them…. or visa versa. Even though it will still only be July it’s games like that which might offer a psychological advantage one way or another.
    I have not thrown in the towel in how this team hits overall. The double play in the 10th that Torres hit into was a very hard hit ground ball that just happened to be hit perfectly to the 2nd baseman. A few feet on either side would have given us the victory. We have two Starters who right now we can count on to be solid…Cole and Nester. Montgomery is on the fence. Tyrone is not. Severino is still unproven. I’m OK with our lineup as long as Gallo is not in it. I only ask for one thing which is a reasonable request. MLB must become active in really expressing themselves to the severe low strike calls. It’s just not fair. That’s ball I’m asking for. The rest will take care of itself.

  2. Great insights; great title!
    Where are the solid .280 hitters of yesteryear? (And I’ve given up on hoping for quality, dependable, injury-free pitchers.)

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