Subway Series Was a Good Read on October

Yankee fans, these last 2 games provided you with all you need to know for what the playoffs will be like in October – and it wasn’t pretty. SU is accused of being a spoiled Yankee fan and a naysayer, and that may be true. But if the goal is to get to the World Series (not necessarily winning it as there is luck involved in that) vs. winning 100 games in the regular season, well there are some flaws here. Consider:

  1. No hits with RISP vs. the Mets over 2 games. Sure, there were a couple of hard hit balls right at someone but when you have a team of .230 hitters, this becomes a lot harder. Even LeMahieu is a .200 hitter with RISP.
  2. Too much reliance on Judge. OK, he failed last night but he has totally carried this team all season. Rizzo and Stanton have had their short streaks. It can’t all be on Judge.
  3. They are still so right-handed. The stud pitchers in October – especially on Houston – tend to be right-handed like Verlander. The trade for Benintendi will help – A LOT – and if nothing else it allows them to jettison Joey Gallo who does not start and is not even an option off the bench now (apparently). You have to assume they don’t want him to get hurt now before they can move him. Seems like a good guy who is very stubborn in his approach to hitting. Be stubborn somewhere else.
  4. The King injury means that they need another arm in the bullpen if Boone is not going to trust Chapman (can you blame him?). SU says that Severino or German are options down the stretch. Look for Cashman to definitely make a trade now for a high end reliever.
  5. SU is fine with the starters but all signs point to the Yankees getting Castillo on the Reds. They will have to give up some top prospects but if you look at the history, the Yankee prospects are always overrated. Castillo seems like the real deal and would relish pitching in New York. The Yankees have the chips to move to get him and I think Cashman will get that done in the next couple of days.

SU knows that the record is great and the run differential is off the charts. But I have watched enough games now and this is a low hit producing team. They have to score via the home run as their .230 hitters get a hit a week. Hicks has finally made it to .240 but he swings so hard left-handed. The prize is the World Series and this team, as currently constituted is not beating Houston and will be overpowered by their pitchers. SU says make the moves now.

Forget the Yankees, the Mets are Players in Trade Deadline Talks

Enough talk about the Yankees. SU just read that the Mets are in talks with the Chicago Cubs for catcher Willson Contreras and David Robertson, long-time SU fave for bullpen help. And… they are also looking at a trade for JD Martinez should the Red Sox become sellers (which they should by the way). No surprise here as Stephen Cohen has deep pockets and the Mets need to go for it this year. Stay tuned.

Now that Giancarlo Stanton is going on the IL for up to 3 weeks, let’s see what Brian Cashman has in mind. Stanton has been terrible for 6 weeks so this won’t be a big loss for the Yankees in the regular season. Clearly, he is an asset in October. Looks like Joey Gallo will get a full-time shot now to make one last good impression. SU has noted that he is making more contact lately as in “Just got under it!” fly balls to the shallow outfield. But hard to imagine he will be here in another week or so.

SU predicts the Mets will make the bigger splash come the trade deadline than the Yankees. Subway series anyone?

Storm Clouds for the Yankees

The bullpen, which has been the strength of the Yankees all year, took a major hit last night as Michael King apparently fractured his elbow and will be out the rest of the season. Remember, Chad Green is also gone and Chapman is a shell of his former self – which we really haven’t seen for about 2 years now. Loaisiga has struggled to regain his form coming back from his annual injury recently. The reality is that if anything happens to Clay Holmes, well, that is all she wrote.

Boone will have to put Chapman in the game now for more serious innings. No way around that. German could slide into the bullpen rotation although there were thoughts he could be that 6th starter down the stretch. SU is high on the youngster, Sears, and he needs to now become a regular part of the Major League roster.

The Yankees continue to struggle in Houston and the Astros are only a couple of games back now for best record in the AL and home field in the ALCS. Looks like that is going to matter. We know Cashman won’t stand pat at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Gallo is showing signs of life and that may cause Cashman to keep him for the rest of the season. We know that would be a mistake as he will undoubtedly go into another prolonged slump. Cashman may now have to find a reliever instead of a younger, athletic outfielder and a team that would take on Gallo.

SU must say that when you look at the team batting averages, it’s hard to believe that their record is what it is. Judge aside, their top players like Stanton and Rizzo are below .230. I suppose this is baseball today with shifts, strikeouts and upper cuts. Stanton is truly an enigma and you realize now why he rarely hits higher than .270 in a season. He seems to be either red hot or ice cold for months at a time.

Watch for Boston to become sellers at the trade deadline.

SU watched the 2nd half of episode 1 and all of episode 2 of The Captain last night on ESPN (instead of the Yankee game) and I must say that I enjoyed it. They have been going season by season and have a ton of former teammates being interviewed including A-Rod who opened up about his early relationship with Jeter. If you have followed Jeter over the course of his career, he never lets you in. In this series, he is as open as I have ever heard him and it’s been fun to relive the end of the Mattingly era and the start of the World Series run in the mid-1990s.

Subway series this week at Citi Field. Should be entertaining.

Regression to the Mean Is Upon the Yankees

Yankee fans have no complaints about the first half of the season in 2022. Players have generally stayed healthy and they have a boatload of come from behind wins. Until the last week and a half, they were on a record pace for wins in the regular season.

But that was then and this is now. They will still win the division – some leads are just too large to blow. But the flaws that SU has commented on all season are starting to look a little more significant. Here is what’s going on:

  1. Aaron Judge cooled off. Judge has carried the team all year. Yes, Stanton and Rizzo have had their bursts along the way but Judge has been solid – even seeing his average go over .300 which for baseball in 2022, is equivalent to hitting .375. But now Judge is slumping as he chases the low and outside slider that he had pretty much avoided most of the first half. Stanton is in a prolonged slump but you know he will emerge at some point, lock in and be solid the rest of the way. Just hard to know when that will be. SU expects nothing from Hicks and Donaldson, and LeMahieu has become a .260 singles hitter at this point of his career.
  2. The starters are good… but not great. They were really good for a long time as a group, and stayed healthy. But now Severino is out with a lat strain (and an innings limit), Jameson Taillon is definitely regressing to the mean, and Cole while good is not the same pitcher without the sticky stuff. SU is actually fine with this group going into the post-season. They are deep and consistent but none of them is going to spin that 8-inning gem.
  3. The Yankees have won a ton of close games.. but that is hard to sustain. In baseball, if you play a lot of close games, at some point you are just not going to keep winning them. This week has been agonizing as they have failed with RISP late in games a lot – especially against the Red Sox but even against the lowly Reds. The wild pitch has been their biggest weapon late in games.
  4. The bullpen has over-achieved. Even with Green gone and Chapman out and now “not to be trusted”, the relievers have been great. There are cracks showing now and Boone has to be careful not to wear out the Kings and the Peraltas. German and Sears can be the answers.
  5. Joey Gallo is just not what you want. SU knows that Cashman changed his modus operandi along the way abandoning his desire for contact hitters for the Andruw Jones types. Gallo is the latest in that line of under-achievers. They can do better – be it Andujar or Florial in the minors. Hicks has been more productive of late. We all long for a .280 hitter – not even .300 as that is too rare. Someone who has a high baseball IQ against the shifts. Set Joey Gallo free. The right move for everyone involved.

SU is not a spoiled Yankee fan. They have over-achieved for the roster that they have for the first half but you can see them ending up with 100 wins or so in the end. The AL East is tough. My one personal observation is that I am no longer especially bothered by the losses. I watch Josh Donaldson pinch hit in the 11th inning with a man on 2nd. I know he won’t get a hit. Hicks is up with 2 outs. I know he won’t get a hit. I suppose the safe thinking is that this team may win 105 games – don’t make any major changes. But if the goal is a World Series – not to win it necessarily but at least participate – this team is not getting past Houston, and a short series against a flawed Red Sox team also feels challenging.

Note to Brian Cashman: get some more contact hitters. Please. Don’t put so much pressure on Trevino to get clutch hits.

Donovan Mitchell to the Knicks? Don’t Do It

Full disclosure: ever since Isiah Thomas took the reins at the Knicks, SU has been off the band wagon. I came back briefly when Stoudemire was in his prime but the trade for Carmelo was the last straw. The Knicks seem to be generally back on track for the long-term now although they do need to move Julius Randle as he is just the latest ball stopper on offense.

Soooo, what about the latest rumors that the Knicks will put a mega-deal together to acquire Donovan Mitchell from the Utah Jazz? They have a boatload of 1st round picks to package but is that the right move? SU says it is not. You end up depleting the roster for one player and a team never fully recovers from that. Plus that player inevitably gets hurt or becomes less motivated due to his $50 million a year contract. You have the draft picks. Use them and grow with the youngsters. Fans enjoy the ride and watching the home grown talent develop. Mitchell is an exciting player but there has to be a better way here.

Rumors that Golden State is looking at a Durant trade. Really? They have assembled all of these young pieces for the future. Why would you do that for a 1 – 2 year run with your old guys? The mega deals make for good off season headlines but rarely pay off long term.

10 players on the Kansas City Royals not making the trip to Toronto for the weekend series as they are unvaccinated. Wow, not a good look there. Btw, Yankee fans, that includes Andrew Benintendi. No way he’s coming to the Bronx unvaccinated.

Yankee players starting to go down. Hicks first although hopefully he will be back this weekend. Severino last night and that did not look good. Luckily, this kid Sears is very good and can slide into the rotation if needed or German who is ready to rejoin the team. Stanton considering the Home Run Derby on Monday. Hey, what could go wrong there? Is there any way he is not injured doing that? Yankees need to veto that one.

Joey Gallo on a 4 for 49 streak that includes a couple of infield hit rollers. Is there no bottom at which point Cashman says no mas? SU just read last night that minor leaguer, Estevan Florial is hitting .303 in Scranton and is red hot. SU says he should get a shot now over Andujar who SU believes will be packaged in some trade deadline move anyway. DFA Gallo and give Florial a shot for regular at bats.

The Mets made a statement taking 2 out of 3 vs the Braves in ATL. That was important for them heading into the All-Star break.

Pace of Play is a Thing

First things first. SU watched a fair amount of this year’s Wimbledon matches and naturally was very pleased to see long-time fave, Novak Djokovic, win his 21st Grand Slam tournament. The finals yesterday was high quality from both players and SU says that either player would have beaten his opponent yesterday no matter who they played. So few unforced errors and a lot of winners. Djokovic has a crazy record in Grand Slam tournaments where he has made the finals in almost 50% of the events that he has played over the course of his career. He has made himself into a great player on grass even though he doesn’t play serve and volley, and doesn’t have one of the fastest serves in tennis.

Of course, now he won’t likely play again in any tournament until possibly November due to his misguided anti-vax stance. It’s unlikely that the US will let him in to play in the US Open in August, and the reality is that his ranking will drop so low that he won’t play in the ATP Finals end of year event in Italy in November. I believe there is one tournament in Paris that he can play in just before that. He will be barred from Australia for the Australian Open in January as well. End of story. Covid isn’t going away and he won’t budge on his position. Very good. See you next April for the clay court season in Europe. All self-inflicted.

SU watched a fair amount of the first 3 Yankee – Red Sox games this weekend. Now understand that I am a long-time baseball fan. The Yankees are having a record-breaking season and have won a ton of come-from-behind, walk off games this year. But… these games are unwatchable. 4 hours of stepping out of the box, pitchers holding the ball with a runner on first to stall the running game, swings and misses, etc. And when a game is on Amazon or Apple TV and you can’t easily flip around to other channels? Torture. I gave myself a break last night and only watched the first few innings as I knew they would give up the lead and I just could not take the pace of play anymore. It is just too slow moving without enough action to fill in the long periods of nothingness.

Comment on home plate umpiring. We are all ready for electronic umpiring. It’s almost like the umpires are too and are making the case to use the technology by missing call after call. Do they know that Aaron Judge is 6 -7? The technology is available. Speed up the game. And let’s get the pitch clock in there too. Tennis has a serve clock and we no longer have to see Nadal and Djokovic towel off before every single point.

For SU, this is a historic season for the Yankees but some games are just not watchable or enjoyable. Part of it is the .242 average player batting average and the absence of balls put in play. It’s like watching Joey Gallo at the plate over and over going to a full count and then waiting to see if he walks or strikes out (or hits into the shift with 7 players bunched on the right side of the field).

If SU is struggling to stay interested, MLB has a major problem.

The Yankees are starting to be exposed a bit as they regress to the mean as David Cone likes to say. Taillon and Cortes are coming back down to earth and the bullpen is showing they also are human. It’s the reason teams rarely win over 110 games and you can’t sustain this pace of play over 162 games. SU is not impressed with the Red Sox but they will get players back healthy and will find a way into the post-season. Mets and Braves this week as the battle for 1st place is on in the NL East.

Anyone else finding these games unwatchable or is it just SU?

Houston: We Have a Problem

It’s become very apparent to SU that the Yankee hitters cannot hit Astro pitching – especially the starters. Come October, this will be a major problem and will threaten to derail what is becoming a record-breaking season for the Yankees. Regular season records are great but the goal is to be the last team standing in October (or November this year perhaps).

The Yankee pitching can handle the Astros – that is not the issue. But you roll out a right-handed dominant line up and there are issues. Your left-handed hitters are Rizzo (good and tries to hit around the shift), Hicks (mindless batting left-handed where it’s home run or bust) and Gallo (takes mindless in approach to new heights. One wonders what the thought process is there as he nears .160). For Gallo, the Mendoza line of .200 is aspirational. SU is sure that Cashman is well aware and will make some moves over the next few weeks. Bottom line: you cannot go into an ALCS series with the Astros with this roster and expect to win. They might but less than 50-50 in my opinion.

If you are a tennis fan, keep an eye on Nadal for winning the Grand Slam this year. The men’s draw at Wimbledon has thinned on his side of the draw with Berrettini testing positive for Covid. No Medvedev, no Zverev and really only Djokovic to threaten him in the finals. Then, the US Open is still requiring fully vaccinated players and assuming Djokovic cannot enter the country, Nadal may be going into the Open with 3 Grand Slams under his belt. At 36. Pretty amazing.

Let’s face it: the NBA off season is the best in pro sports for big-time players moving. Now, it’s for all of the wrong reasons with players demanding trades and wanting to play with their buddies. But rosters really change over dramatically. And the money for the top players? Jokic getting $270 million for 5 years. Whoa. Makes Aaron Judge look like a bargain. You can see some players getting these mega deals and justify it like Booker on Phoenix. But Beal on the Wizards? $251 million for 5 years? Hmmm.

The Knicks moved half their roster to sign Brunson to play the point. SU says he is a solid player but is he a game changer? His contract is reasonable by NBA standards but unclear if they are even a playoff team in 2022 – 2023.

USC and UCLA in the Big Ten? Let me check that map again. I guess it’s the Biiiiggggg Ten Conference now. Lots of long flights for the teams but it’s all about the money now and that is that. We are moving towards the SEC and the Big Ten and a bunch of satellite conferences. Maybe it doesn’t really matter as the same 5 – 6 teams contend for the football championship every year anyway, and in basketball, multiple teams get into the Tournament anyway. I guess the upside is that a fan can travel with the team for a game in LA for the weekend so there is that.

Finally, an interesting comment from Sweeny Murti on the Yankee broadcast last night. Once baseball moves to electronic umpiring in 2024 (possibly), the catchers who can’t hit but are great at “receiving” the ball and “framing pitches” will no longer be in demand. All of that will no longer matter. I guess defensive catchers will still be in demand but more for throwing out runners and blocking pitches.