The NFL playoffs delivered another treat this weekend in the two Conference championship games. SU is proud to say that its pick of the LA Rams winning it all is still alive while the Bills succumbed last weekend (no doubt their coach is running simulations of a squib kick with 13 seconds left in the game every day. SU noted that the Bengals did just that in the 4th quarter and as the models show, it burned several seconds for a short return. And so it goes…).

Anyway, some observations from yesterday’s games:

1. What happened to Tony Romo? SU likes him but he must have been on his 9th cup of coffee in the 4th quarter of the Chiefs’ game. He was saying that the Chiefs, down by 3 with under a minute left, should actually have a running back go to the 1 yard line and fall down, so that they could try and score a touchdown in the very final seconds. SU understands the logic in a tie game but when you are trailing by 3, scoring a touchdown puts you up by 4 with probably less than 30 seconds left. Also talked about having a coach throw the red challenge flag to review the offense’s formation for an illegal formation on the prior play. Not reviewable. SU says sometimes less is more. Too many words to process.
2. The Rams-Niners game featured two quarterbacks who make poor decisions in key situations. Both did the usual yesterday but fortunately for Stafford, his 1st quarter interception did not come back to haunt him, and his long pass that was more like a punt was dropped by the defender in the 4th quarter. San Francisco has a good team with talent in all of the skill positions but Jimmy Garappolo really holds them back. They scored so few points in the playoffs and they would be smart to move on from him.
3. The NFL was faced with a possible replay of the Chiefs winning the coin toss in overtime and going down the field to score and win the game but fortunately we had a different outcome. I am not sure of the exact stat, but Jim Nance said something like the team that had won the toss in the playoffs for an overtime game had won the last 10 games. SU believes the rule needs a facelift. True, it’s up to the defense to stop the offense there but each team should have its shot.
4. No doubt Andy Reid will be regretting the decision to run another play late in the 1st half with 5 seconds left and the Chiefs up 21 – 3. Take the field goal and the 2nd half kick-off. He got greedy there. SU also felt like the Chiefs pulled back offensively in the 2nd half and were content to run out the clock. Amazingly, Burrow finally had some time to throw the ball and their running game wore down the Chiefs’ defense as they tired in the 4th quarter having been on the field for most of the 2nd half.
5. It should be a good Super Bowl as neither team is a world beater.

Rafa Nadal won an epic Australian Open final in nearly 5 and a half hours. Good for him. SU was surprised to learn that this was only his 2nd career Australian Open championship. Medvedev received the treatment that Djokovic normally receives in New York, Paris and London when he plays either Nadal or Federer and ultimately was not able to cope. Stories keep surfacing about Djokovic perhaps forging the failed Covid test in December and SU believes that he may be suspended by the ATP Tour if there is definitive proof. That may not ever come out as the test was administered by the Serbian government and they will no doubt protect him. SU is a Djokovic fan but he is destroying his legacy in real time. He’s too old to pull a Marv Albert and take a year off but he needs to do a 180. Getting vaccinated and use his Foundation to launch a vaccine drive in Serbia would be a good place to start.

Finally, for those of you looking for something new on Netflix, etc., check out For All Mankind on Apple TV. It’s 2 seasons (season 3 on the way) and basically charts NASA and the space race with the Soviets in the 1960s, 70s and 80s, but with the premise that the Russians land on the Moon first. History changes from there. It’s a good watch. SU has started on season 4 of Ozark now. If anyone has some other shows to recommend, I am all ears.

Finally, finally, no winners on the SU Super Bowl predictions so the SU logoed back pack and water bottle go unclaimed.

Lots of activity on social media regarding the latest Hall of Fame voting. David Ortiz is in. SU says that is a no-brainer. He had a sustained, long great career as a DH. Killed the Yankees year after year. Big hugs for everyone. Rumor has it that the Yankees will brush him back on the podium up in Cooperstown while making his acceptance speech as they try to make up for 15+ years of never making him uncomfortable at the plate (all the while Pedro was beaning Jeter and Soriano). OK, not going there.

The bigger story seems to be that Clemens, Bonds, Schilling will no longer be on the official ballot as their 10 years are up. Long-time subscriber J. Rosen had this comment on yesterday’s SU:

“Just read that for those that are in their 10th and final year on the writers ballot hope is not lost. The modern era committee can vote to let them in as soon as next year. So all those sanctimonious writers may be disappointed when Bonds and Clemens get in in the near future. Both top 10 of all time and never officially broke the rules, unlike ARod who knowingly cheated and lied multiple times. That’s my line of demarcation. McGwire should be in too IMO.“

SU says Bonds and Clemens (and A-Rod) were clearly top 10 players in their era and possibly all time (and McGwire) but whether they admitted it or not, they all cheated the game. The reality is that they were Hall of Famers before they started juicing and put up those types of numbers. Is there a positive test result? No, there is nothing official like that although if there was an “a-hole” test, Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling would have all failed in grand fashion. SU has a soft spot for A-Rod and I don’t put him in that category. But he still cheated. I say these guys don’t pass the smell test. Voting for the Hall of Fame is not an exact science. We evaluate what we saw over the years. It was great watching these guys play and you could easily see how their body types changed over time.

If the Hall of Fame was a museum, then sure, they should all be in there – no doubt. You would have the PED Wing and you could display all of their PED-aided achievements. That is history and you are telling the history of baseball in the 1990s and early 2000s. But if the Hall of Fame is for achievement and playing by the rules, then why should they be in there? Again, you may not have the “proof” but we all saw it.

SU was actually surprised at how many sports writers are appalled that these guys are not in. And truth be told, the Modern Era committee or whatever that is will likely put them in later in the year. But for SU, they would not be on my ballot.

Feel free to disagree or agree. All comers are welcome per usual.

SU came across this interesting read on today’s The Athletic regarding possible rules changes for NFL overtime games. I thought some of these were pretty interesting… and a bit out there. Btw, The Athletic is a great read for the money and SU is a big fan. Chris Branch puts out a daily headlines review which is a quick read and well-packaged. Just saying.

Anyway, check it out:

What a weekend for the NFL. Four playoff games that end in walk-off fashion topped off by one of the best playoff games of all time between the Chiefs and Bills. SU’s Super Bowl prediction of Rams over the Bills took a hit last night but better than most years. Certainly not a great weekend for getting your steps in but well-suited for riding out the latest COVID variant. SU was on the case (or make that the couch) and here are my observations:

1. Bad week for the anti-vaxxers. First Djokovic sent packing and then Aaron Rodgers and his stadium-sized ego follows suit. You can’t deny that Rodgers is an All-Pro quarterback and he puts up great numbers every season. But his playoff record pales in comparison to others, and most seasons seem to end in disappointing fashion. This year, they are the #1 seed, playing at home in 5 degree weather, in the snow, against a California-based team with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. And Garoppolo is guaranteed to make at least a couple of killer, game crippling throws every game. He did his best Saturday night but the Packers couldn’t hold onto about 3 pick-6 throws. The Niners had 6 points on offense. SU says that loss is on Rodgers. Blame the special teams but he only led the team to 10 points. And 65% of the country rejoiced. The other 35% said the final score was rigged.
2. Lots of talk on Twitter about the Bills not squibbing the kick-off with 13 seconds left in regulation. It’s true that the risk is that a line drive hits one of the up-blockers and they start with great field position. But the more likely outcome is several seconds being used up by the returner running forward for what you assume is a modest return. On the other hand, the defense can’t allow that- even if it’s Mahomes.
3. SU asks this question. Why is that Mahomes and Chiefs (and really the Bills as well) are dinking and dunking with short passes all game and then, in the final 2 minutes, they have no problem playing wide open football? Is it the pass rush or lack thereof in the last 2 minutes? Is it the defense playing prevent which is counter to what they did all game long? In hindsight, should the Bills have employed the same defense that had worked well most of the night?
4. Of course, the counter argument is what happened at the end of the Rams-Bucs game where Cooper Kupp is one on one with a long pass to set up the game winning field goal.
5. Is the NFL’s playoff overtime rule the best format? Is it fair that Buffalo doesn’t get a shot in OT? Some say their defense needs to step up there and at least hold the Chiefs to a field goal. That is true. But if you look at other sports, SU cannot think of one where both teams do not get a chance on offense with the ball. Soccer plays long extra time periods that don’t end on a goal. In baseball, both teams come to bat. Basketball, hockey, even tennis give both sides opportunities. Perhaps do the possession thing and in overtime, whoever had the ball last in regulation has to go on defense? Or get the choice? Or better yet, play a full 15 minutes and see who wins. SU knows that probably is a problem with television but the World Cup does it for the full time. I don’t think the college format is the answer but it feels like a better system is out there. If anything, perhaps NFL coaches should try and win in regulation – even if you get the ball with 40 seconds left? Credit to the Rams for doing that yesterday.
6. Watching the final 8 teams really highlights the difference in quality at the quarterback position. You have the elites QBs in Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers and Allen, and then you have Ryan Tannenhill and Garoppolo. Stafford is a notch above Garoppolo but also prone to the killer turnover. If you are a GM, what’s the ideal formula? The more traditional pocket passer, the scrambling type like Murray on the Cardinals, or the rugged, big dude like Allen? Most teams seem to opt for the poor man’s pocket passer and they make up half the league.
7. Is that the last we see of Brady? SU says if he had won the Super Bowl, he walks away. But the Bucs have a great nucleus in place and I think he comes back for one last season to soak up the praise for a full season.

Bottom line: great weekend for the NFL. The floor is open.

Djokovic is out of Australia – good. Play the tournament and talk about the matches for a change. In the end, he clearly miscalculated – assuming he actually had a plan. If he didn’t test positive for COVID in December, was the plan to just not play?

The issue is going to be in March when the next 2 major ATP Tour events are in California (Indian Wells) and Miami. Will the US allow a foreigner in who is admittedly not vaccinated? SU says I believe not. Otherwise, he is out until April for the clay season in Monte Carlo, Italy and Spain leading up to the French Open. He needs to decide if his career comes first, his legacy, the record for the most Grand Slams, the all-time GOAT conversation… or does he fall on his sword over not getting a vaccine that can help not only himself but others who might be compromised? That is pretty much it. I must say I am hard-pressed to understand his thought process.

Too bad for Djokovic that he doesn’t have the US Supreme Court overseeing global tennis. They are happy to have us all exposed in the workplace. But not going there…

SU liked the performance by the Buffalo Bills last night. The Pats’ defense really declined the last month out of nowhere. Josh Allen is playing with a lot of confidence but will need to go on the road next week for a tougher opponent. SU is still feeling good about its Super Bowl prediction… until I’m not.

Kevin Durant out 4 – 6 weeks with a sprained knee. Will Kyrie Irving finally make a move to help the team out? Nope, not happening.

MLB cleverly staying out of the fans’ view for the winter. Good strategy to not have anyone talking about baseball for 2022. This will no doubt help with ticket sales and fan interest as we near the start of spring training in February. Look, the reality is that the NFL is #1 – by a lot, and the NBA is gaining ground. Baseball fans are older like SU, and you need to promote the sport all year round. Brinksmanship on negotiations is not always the best option. Get a deal done and let’s talk free agency and trades.

Btw, I saw a photo of Gleyber Torres on Twitter working out on weights and he is a A LOT bigger. Remind me why that is a good thing for a 2nd baseman?

As is customary this time of the year, SU runs literally thousands of statistical models to predict the winner of the Super Bowl taking into account expected weather conditions, team tendencies, player performance in January, injuries, and of course, many flips of the coin. SU is rarely correct but hey, there is always fun in trying and then bragging about the occasional correct prediction.

For this year’s playoffs, the key factors are:

1. There are so many mediocre teams in the playoffs, e.g., Philadelphia Eagles, Las Vegas Raiders, and then you have other teams that have been up and down at times during the year, i.e., Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills. It’s hard to know which team shows up.
2. There are always upsets this first weekend with road teams winning 1 or 2 of the games.
3. Green Bay seems like the safest pick playing at home and having the first week off with the bye. The Titans still don’t know if Henry will be at full strength and they tend to win ugly.
4. For SU, the Cowboys are the mystery team. They can put together a great game but can also look very ordinary.
5. You have to figure that Tampa Bay’s injuries to Fournette and Godwin will catch up with them at some point in the playoffs. That’s a lot to overcome on the road.
6. SU has a funny feeling about Matthew Stafford. He has paid his dues in his career and while he makes the dumb turnover A LOT, maybe this is his year?
7. Everyone loves Mahomes and the Chiefs but teams have figured out a way to cover Tyreek Hill and you wonder if the other receivers are good enough against the better AFC teams?
8. The Bills are effective but not always pretty. They came close last year – do they have a run in them?

OK, that’s enough context. SU says the LA Rams over the Buffalo Bills in the Super Bowl. It’s Stafford’s year and the Rams will host the Super Bowl in LA. Now, given the amount of tickets sold to business partners, etc., that doesn’t mean it’s a home game in the Super Bowl for the Rams with the crowd. I just don’t see Mahomes as dominant this year and the Titans are not world beaters on offense. The Rams will have to beat the Packers in Green Bay and that is not easy obviously. But may be destiny for Stafford.

Enough said. The floor is open for others to make their predictions. This year’s winner receives the SU-logoed backpack and water bottle.

Still waiting for Djokovic to voluntarily withdraw from the Australian Open but I must say I am starting to think he is going to be allowed to play. There are just too many sketchy details about his negative test, going out in public after testing positive, not correctly indicating whether he had traveled before making the trip to Australia, etc. But that is not what the Australian Immigration Minister seems to be contending now. They are saying that he is a menace to society and will rile people up on vaccines. What a sh*t show. SU is a big Djokovic fan but he needs to just go home now and let the tournament be played without this crap going on. And use the time at home to get vaccinated already. It’s not all about you – and that is the same message to the 40% of Americans who seem to feel the same way as Djokovic when it comes to vaccines.

For those of you who are diehard NFL fans, it was worth the wait last night to watch the end of the Raiders-Chargers game. Given all the tiebreakers and with the Colts losing to the lowly Jaguars and the Steelers winning in OT, it came down to this game to determine the final AFC teams in the playoffs. The Chargers and Raiders each controlled their own destiny but if they tied, they would both get in and the Steelers would be out. The Steelers were in if there wasn’t a tie.

The Chargers rallied late – making several 4th down conversions along the way – to force overtime and with the game tied in the final couple of minutes, the Raiders had the ball near midfield and were just running the ball. They were in position to just run out the clock, have the game end as a tie, and see both the Raiders and Chargers get into the playoffs with the Steelers eliminated. All the Chargers had to do was keep them from picking up 7 – 8 yards a run. Well, they couldn’t do it and then the Chargers called a timeout with 32 seconds left that was a head scratcher. The coach said that he wanted to get different personnel in on defense as the Raiders were running each play. But you wonder if that pissed off the Raiders’ coach who then decided to go for the winning field goal?

Think about it as if the Giants were playing the Cowboys and if they allowed the game to end in a tie, both get into the playoffs, and some random team gets eliminated. Even attempting a long field goal as time expires is a risk as the kick can get blocked and returned for a touchdown on the game’s final play. The Raiders opted to kick it and got the win. SU says the outcome is good for the NFL as they played to win but if you were the Raiders, you were safer taking the tie. No doubt sticking it to a division rival played a role in the decision-making. It was a wild finish for the season’s final regular season game and worth staying up late to see.

The Novak Djokovic drama continues in Australia. There are no heroes here. While SU is a long-time Djokovic fan, he has some dumb views and is anti-vax. Tennis Australia should have denied his application to play back in December and called it a day. He won in court today and is allowed to stay in the country for the moment but apparently the Australian government can still throw him out of the country which also includes a 3-year ban from returning to Australia. He would be almost 38 years old then. SU also believes the other majors may enforce a vaccine mandate for their tournaments this year (they all should do just that) and then where is he? He will be denied and that will be his legacy. Sure, there are those who will see him as some type of martyr – freedom to make others sick is actually a cause? – but he is risking being able to play in any more major tournaments and he’s not getting any younger.

Apparently, he tested positive for Covid in mid-December but there are many pictures of him out in public the next day in various events in Serbia without a mask. What is up with that? Unforced errors.

On the brighter side, Klay Thompson returned for Golden State last night after 30 months of rehab from 2 major injuries. He looked good and is a good guy to root for.

SU’s fearless NFL playoff predictions to follow later in the week. I am starting well with the Colts being eliminated.