OK, looks like this deal is done pending Stanton’s physical. Yankees only had to give up Castro and a couple of lower level prospects. They get a $31 million break on the rest of the $295 million contract. Great comments from the SU intergalactic subscriber base – both pro and con. SU likes to see the analytics making their way into the comments to support your arguments.
On the face of it, this is similar to signing a big time free agent. You give up Castro but he is easily replaced by Gleybar Torres who now has a position going into spring training. SU asks this question: “If you had this roster with Stanton playing Houston this past October, do you win that series?” SU says no – you still lose. You just have a different guy swinging and missing at low and outside sliders and curve balls in the DH spot. Your pitching is still not good enough and you are still not able to manufacture runs.
With Stanton, you win 95 – 100 regular season games in 2018 and feast on the bad teams’ pitching. But Cleveland and Houston still have the horses in their rotation and the Yankees still do not. And now you do not have the payroll to acquire that talent as Hal is intent on getting below $200 million next season. You will instead rely on the young arms in Chance Adams and Sheffield. And SU is fine with that. But Stanton does not win you extra games in the post-season in 2018.
SU agrees with B. Rosano’s comment that this feels like the 2004 A-Rod signing. Do you remember that team? Gary Sheffield, A-Rod, Jeter, Posada – they scored a ton or runs. Same in 2005. But come playoff time, you had John Lieber, a scotch-taped Kevin Brown and then in 2005 an aging and pissed off Randy Johnson starting and losing games. For SU, this feels very similar. They already had plenty of offense. But Justin Verlander and Corey Kluber are still going to be there in October and the Yankees will still be swinging and missing.
Sports Update Intergalactic 
As I told SU jr. I disagree with a lot of these points. Stanton is a generational talent and if you get a chance lock him up for pennies on the dollar, particularly when you have a team that’s already on the cusp of potential dynasty, i think you pull the trigger. The contract # is large but the only people who care about that are media writers and Red Sox fans who want ammo to hate on the Yankees. Of course the deal will be bad in the second half of it, but we’re not paying that money – the Steinbrenners are. If the mandate really is to get under $200m, then I would agree that the money would be more wisely spent on a top starter. That is a big if, though, and I’ve also seen that they will still have the money to be able to get a top starter and remain under $200mil next season. I’d actually prefer they spend that money on Machado, another generational talent, and use prospects to get a top arm. The team is clearly in win now mode, so it’s tough to argue against packaging Sheffield, Frazier, and maybe a second tier prospect for a guy like Chris Archer. To add to this – the Yankees didn’t lose the ALCS on starting pitching. They lost it on hitting and, yes, swinging and missing. I do think Stanton turns one of those 1-run games into a win, though. Let’s not forget that even the best SP can whiff in the playoffs too (Kluber, Darvish, Kershaw, etc.).
Regarding the last post, baseball is turning into a three true outcome sport. Stanton and Judge epitomize the three true outcome style and it’s the future. Having said that, they both still hit .280 so they’re not exactly Adam Dunn, and there are still plenty of guys who will be exciting to watch (very excited to see Torres).
Erik, good comments here. I find the term “generational talent” to be amusing. When the Yankees traded for A-Rod after losing the 2003 World Series, it was also for a 2nd baseman (Soriano) and a similarly large and long contract. Surely you would have to agree that A-Rod was also a “generational talent” in 2004 with crazy stats. And he also had some post-season experience on top of that. And yet, and yet, over the period 2004 – 2016, the Yankees won one World Series. Getting Stanton to me is very similar and no guarantee they win all of these championships going forward. I have come of the opinion over the years that these big contracts are not worth it. I would rather have 2 players at $15 million a year. But time will tell here and that’s what makes baseball and all the speculation so much fun.
I hear you but I think it’s an unfair comparison to make for a few reasons – first, from a personnel standpoint, the Stanton trade makes much more sense than the A-Rod trade. We have the number 1 prospect in the game waiting to take over 2nd base for hopefully the next decade and a half so Castro wasn’t long for NY anyway. If you recall, the venerable Miguel Cairo took over for Soriano in 2004. Second, Soriano was coming off of a 38-35 season, and as good as Castro was, he’s not 2003 Soriano entering his prime. Third, the 2003 Yanks won 101 games. The Yankees before Stanton were (are?) a fringe playoff team in 2018. With Stanton, like you said, they become a 95-100 win team so at least they have a chance to compete for a World Series for the next 5-10 years without giving up anything meaningful in the way of players. A-Rod was horrendous in the postseason, no doubt, but we don’t know what kind of difference Stanton will make in October. A-Rod was also as big a factor as any in the Yanks making the postseason all those years, though, and Stanton should play a similar role. The lineup has very few holes in it now – no Miguel Cairo or Tony Clark or Ruben Sierras on this squad (though a lefty bat would be nice if we’re being greedy).
I don’t factor the money as much because the Yankees play with monopoly money, and, unless there really is a $200mil mandate, I sincerely think they’re going to spend it as long as there’s a chance to win the WS. Hal hasn’t had a potential dynasty on his hands yet.
Like you said, time will tell, and I do think the Yankees should (and I would guess will) trade a blue chip prospect or two for a top starter. Regardless, I think the Stanton trade puts the Yankees in position to be competitive for a World Series perennially, and for that reason I think it’s a very exciting time to be a Yankees fan.