SU has been overdue in providing commentary on this year’s World Series.  Working way too hard but hey, it’s a living.  Actually had a chance today to see the island where Derek Jeter built his multi-million dollar house in Tampa.  I must admit that I only lasted until the bottom of the 11th inning on Tuesday night but I think this series is becoming pretty clear at this point.

• The Royals have no true superstar or a guy that carries the team.  But what they do have is what Michael Kay would call a “circular line-up.”  There is no real beginning or end to this line up.  They all hit, they all make contact and they seem to have an idea when they come to the plate.
• You also have to admire the way KC comes from behind late in games.  There is no panic in this team.  They did it to Houston in game 4 of that series when they trailed by 4 runs late, and they are doing it again tonight to the Mets.
• The Mets are gritty but you can see their young stud starters are struggling the 3rd time through the line up.  And the real advantage and mis-match in this series is the KC bullpen vs. the Mets relievers.  Outside of Famillia, it’s not even close and that tends to shorten the games for the Mets to 6 or 7 innings.  A lot of pressure to score off of their starters who are not as good as the Mets’ starting pitchers.
• Finally, SU believes last year’s World Series 7-game loss to the Giants is a huge edge for the Royals who have been there before as they say.

SU still expects this series to go 6 games.  It’s been a lot of fun so far and I continue to find myself rooting for the Mets which is not normal for SU.  But KC is very very tough and the Mets are going to have to dig deep in the 3 NY games.

SU is stranded down in Florida for the moment and thus cannot tune in to tonight’s Knicks game.  But I am very excited to see them up on Milwaukee with little in the way of contribution from Melo.  Balance is the key for them.  SU tends not to over-react to opening night games of any teams so let’s let the season unfold a bit.  Jeremy Lin had 17 in a losing effort but most of SU’s other faves have been DNPs (McGary, Stauskus).  What is up with that?

Once again, good pitching beats good hitting in a post-season series.  We have certainly seen it before.  The Cubs hit .163 for the series and never led in any game.  Total domination.  Even though many Met fans were calling into NY talk sports radio shows concerned about blowing a 3-0 lead, this was a beatdown from start to finish.  There were few dramatic points in any of the games.

The Mets were dead in the water in early July with no offense and no buzz.  And now?  They rule the City and the Yankees now realize that they are the 2nd team in NY – likely for years to come.  Of course, the Mets will be hard-pressed to keep this team together salary-wise as soon as next season.  Cespedes is a goner for some long-term, ridiculous contract and even Daniel Murphy will now get more than he is worth in a long-term deal.  Timing is everything and let’s face it: not everyone excels in the walk years of their contracts (see Stephen Drew who did parley his .160 season with the Yankees into another 1-year deal.  But not every GM is Brian Cashman).  The betting is that they will lock up a couple of the young stud pitchers ahead of free agency and perhaps trade Matt Harvey for a bat during the off-season.  But with a rotation that throws 95 mph+ every night of the week, that is exciting.

SU would not normally root for the Mets but this team is likeable and fun to watch.  I will likely revert to form next season but having a World Series in NY is always exciting and it helps to bridge the days until the NBA season starts.  Once the Knicks are mathematically eliminated by Thanksgiving, we turn to the next spring training.  Or you can focus on the Giants who may also be eliminated by Thanksgiving.

You wonder if Toronto can keep winning these elimination games.  A game 7 would be exciting.  SU does not like the Blue Jays – their act is tiresome and the unusual power surge does make you wonder.  Kansas City is a team of gamers and while they lack a stud pitcher, they are very solid.  Either way, should be a good World Series.  The Mets must guard against the 5-days layoff now til the Series starts.  Best to keep Daniel Murphy toasty.

SU notes the irony.  Kevin Long was let go by the Yankees last year, signs with the Mets, and their offense is terrible for the first half of the year.  Sandy Alderson engineers a few moves and all of a sudden, they are a juggernaut.  Clearly, Kevin Long is a miracle worker!

Well, today the Yankees jettisoned one of their two hitting coaches:

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2015/10/19/yankees-back-market-hitting-coach-easy-point-fingers/

Pentland must have been the one that worked with Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner and Chase Headley.  No doubt he focused all of his efforts on Drew and never got the credit for helping him to raise his average from .160 to .190.  SU has always felt that the impact of the hitting coach was overrated (in the Yankees’ case, the hitting “coaches” is overrated) but they do seem to get their share of the blame for lack of productivity.  Anyway, if anyone in the SU intergalactic subscriber base has some tidbits to offer, there is a job opening.

The Mets are making it look easy so far but you have to figure the Cubs are due for a breakout game back at home.  This series is not over yet but with DeGrom pitching, that is a huge advantage for the Mets.

SU has purchased the NBA League Pass for this season in order to be able to watch my favorite players: Jeremy Lin on Charlotte; Nik Stauskus on the Sixers; Tim Hardaway Jr on the Hawks; Mitch McGary on OKC; and Trey Burke on the Jazz.  The thought of being limited to the Knicks and the national broadcasts was just too painful.  Worth the $199 investment.

SU took in the Michigan – Michigan State football game yesterday – all 4 hours plus worth.  Big Ten officials, who are challenged on most days, reached new lows in this game – especially the replay booth official who was truly clueless.  Confirmation of targeting calls that were clearly not, overrule of the on field referees with views that were inconclusive, the list goes on and on.  That contributed to the 4-hour length of the game.

Of course, it was the game’s last play that was just totally unexpected, really never-before-seen except perhaps at the grade school level or by Joe Pisarzick and the NY Giants back in the 1970s.  Even when the punter fumbled a good snap, all he had to do was fall on the ball and get ready for Michigan State’s Hail Mary attempt on one last play.  But his inner Garo Yepremian took over (for you younger readers, he was the Miami Dolphins kicker who attempted a pass that was intercepted and run back for a TD in the Super Bowl) and he tried to kick it.  The next thing you know, the ball is run back for a TD, there is a wild celebration and the player who ran it back is carted off the field with a broken hip.

Emotionally, before that play it was game, set and match.  You just never see this happen.  But for SU, it’s why college football is more fun to watch than the pros.  This was a body blow for sure but the positive news is that Michigan football is back and is no longer a walkover.  The reality is that if they had even an average QB this year, they could challenge some of the best teams.  But the defense is better than they could have hoped for and they have Harbaugh – SU will take that.  At my age, I don’t live and die with sports.  Still a big fan and love to watch but my teams don’t define me and I can bounce back.  I understand that the Michigan punter was abused and threatened on Twitter last night which is sad.  These aren’t professionals and the 5th year graduate student from Australia blew the play but it’s still just football.  Feel badly, be pissed off but move on.

Question of the Day: Which MLB team is going to over-pay for Daniel Murphy after his post-season performance?  He is playing his best at the right time but the career numbers are more Chase Headley like.

MLB avoided a major ongoing controversy by having the Mets prevail in the NLDS over the Dodgers.  Yes, SU is talking about Chase Utley.  As we all know, the blown call on the Utley slide would not have guaranteed victory for the Mets in game 2 as it was still in the 7th inning and a 1-run lead.  But if the Dodgers had won last night, that would have been the key play of the series.  Now Utley can serve his suspension at the start of the 2016 season.  SU asks: has a suspension ever been increased upon appeal?  That would be a nice development and appropriate in this instance.

DeGrom was gutsy last night as he was on the brink of being lifted several times.  Syndegaard must have pitched about 14 innings worth of pitches warming up in the bullpen.  SU likes how Terry Collins rolled the dice by going with Famillia for 2 innings and left himself open to be second-guessed.  Clearly, he has been studying the Joe Torre post-season handbook.  Funny how that works.  It’s not a huge story when it works but if Famillia had imploded, this would have had legs right into spring training and could even have cost Collins his job in the off-season.

Lucas Duda did his A-Rod post-season impersonation but really took it to another level of badness.  SU asks this question: when they are over-shifting against you and all you can seem to do is strike out, why not practice bunting in your spare time and surprise them with a bunt double?  Duda has plenty of company across baseball.  They are just giving it to you and if you are successful enough, they will stop shifting.  You do not need to be a rocket scientist to figure this out.

SU hates the Jose Bautista bat flip.  I am not so old school that any emotion is a bad thing.  Quite the contrary – the curtain calls in the dugout are fine and it’s just a game – have some fun.  But he flipped it at the Rangers’ dugout.  And this is a dude who goes crazy if you pitch him even a little inside as he stands right on top of the plate.  Of course, everyone admires his late career productivity with the long ball.  Clearly a result of extra time in the weight room.  The Blue Jays are a nice story and it’s great for Canada but he needs to tone it down.

Finally, SU is fired up for Michigan – Michigan State tomorrow.  ESPN Game Day will be in Ann Arbor as will long-time SU subscriber S. Levine and her classmates.  It’s great for the rivalry and the Big Ten.  Jim Harbaugh has made Michigan football watchable again.  I don’t love the QB but they have a great defense and a lot of confidence.  Go Blue!

As you know, SU is a lifelong Yankee fan and in most years, I would not be rooting for the Mets in the post-season.  However, I like this year’s team: young; plays with energy; and to me they are generally a likeable bunch (Matt Harvey excluded).  I happened to be watching late Saturday night when Chase Utley did his thing to Reuben Tejada.  Outrageous.  SU’s take on things:

• To say Utley was within reach of 2nd base when he rolled into Tejada is a joke.  If Tejada was in centerfield, Utley would have been there.  He was nowhere near 2nd base.
• It wasn’t a slide.  It was a rolling block that you would more typically see on a football field.  He started his block either on top of 2nd base or just past it.
• Where were the announcers?  Where was the outrage?  It was nowhere remotely legal in baseball terms.  And who cares if Chase Utley has a reputation of being a hard-nosed player?  As far as SU is concerned, his legacy is now that he was a dirty player.  Hey, he won his team a playoff game.  Congrats.
• The umpires should have called it play over and the runner out at 2nd base for not even attempting to slide into the bag.  That is called many times during the season.  How could they miss that here?  If the Dodgers go on to win this series and ultimately the World Series, their championship will be tainted.  Of course, if the Mets had a reliever who could have ended the inning, we would not be as focused on this.

What will happen tonight?  Joe Torre made a smart move suspending Utley and you know it will be upheld before game time.  It’s great that Matt Harvey is starting tonight as he is the type of guy who takes care of these things.  The Yankees really don’t have a pitcher who does that (paging Roger Clemens).  SU says the easiest way to resolve it is to hit Howie Kendrick – their 2nd baseman or their shortstop.  The problem is that in a 5-game playoff series, you really don’t want to risk that guy scoring.  It’s an interesting dilemma for the Mets but they need to resolve it quickly.

And if that was Derek Jeter having his leg broken, the nature of the conversation would have been totally different.  I still don’t understand how the announcers were not more outraged.  I mean Cal Ripken played shortstop for about 40 years.

The two National League divisional series are so much more interesting than the AL this year.  Must see TV.

No drama, no magic, no energy.  Last night’s Yankee game played out the same way many of their games had since mid-August.  Falling behind early felt like a 10-0 hole.  SU would liken this to game 6 in the 2003 World Series when Josh Beckett shut out the Yankees 2-0 for the Florida Marlins in the final game of the series.  Andy Pettitte kept it close but they just could not score or mount anything.  A few observations:

• Jacoby Ellsbury did not deserve to start.  For all of September, he hit .200 with no homeruns and 3 rbis.  Not bad if you are making $22 million a year.  SU never liked this signing: the guy never plays a full season and for the money and production, you could get someone much cheaper.  But this is not a movable contract – he will be here for the next several years.
• Brett Gardner is worn down from the season.  Can you believe he was an All-Star and was batting .300?  Same for McCann who caught too many games which was too bad as John Ryan Murphy is capable.
• Chase Headley and Stephen Drew: this will be SU’s memory of this season.  Unproductive, unclutch.
• The 3 core relievers also wore down – especially Betances.
• Tanaka was ok and sure, the umpire was terrible but when you can’t score, everything else is magnified

The one positive from the evening for SU were the frank remarks by Brian Cashman after the game.  As he has aged, he has been speaking frankly more and more.  That give me hope he will look to make some moves in the off season although truth be told (and at SU, we seek to tell the truth), they have a number of long term contracts that limit what can be done.  If Texeiria returns as expected, where do you even play Greg Bird with A-Rod at DH?  He has no position.  Ackley and Refsnyder can share 2nd base and they can upgrade from Chris Young and get a right-handed hitting 4th outfielder.  Severino is exciting with a lot of upside.  Maybe you sign David Price?  But those long term deals always end badly (see CC Sabathia and the 2 years left on his deal).

Bottom line: this was a boring team.  SU needs to be entertained and another year with this roster in 2016 won’t cut it.  Time to eat some money and move some people.  Get younger.  I know – I am a broken record – but I am right about this team and have been from the start.

Look forward to those ratings for the Astros – Royals series!

Let’s Go Mets!

Breaking News from long-time SU subscriber T. Potter.  CC Sabathia is checking himself into an alcohol rehab program and is out for the balance of the season.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/3149/cc-sabathia

Well, that’s not good.  He had actually moved up in the pecking order for post-season starts.  Not looking good for the bombers.

OK, the statistics are there: late season momentum apparently has no bearing on playoff success in baseball.  History shows that “hot” teams go cold come October and struggling teams all of a sudden show new life and go on a run.  Many managers believe in resting their regulars and could care less about home field advantage (see Joe Torre and it’s hard to argue with his success with the Yankees).  The reality is that teams can get hot at the right time and adrenaline just takes over as Buck Showalter believes.  So, what will happen in 2015?

SU picked the St. Louis Cardinals to win it all back in April and I don’t believe in changing a preseason pick if it is still in play.  But here is how things will play out:

American League

The Yankees are running on fumes.  They have truly limped into the playoffs.  It’s not Joe Girardi’s fault.  He is dealing with the hand he was dealt by Brian Cashman and let’s face it – their bullpen is really thin.  You have starters that cannot go more than 5-6 innings and that ultimately placed too much pressure on the three relievers who can actually get people out.  You combine that with your $160 million bust of a centerfielder in Jacoby Ellsbury and your over-rated 3rd baseman in Chase Headley and you are in trouble.  Houston will throw a legitimate left-hander on Tuesday in Keuchel albeit on 3 days rest but the reality is that any left-hander can shut the Yankees down.  They have played sub-.500 since the All-Star Game and without Greg Bird, they would have likely missed the playoffs.  One and done and if they get behind early, that will do it with little drama.  SU is accused of being overly negative about the Yankees but they have earned it.  Brian McCann has the worst average in all of baseball since the All-Star Game (.199), Brett Gardner has the 3rd worst and A-Rod is 4th.  No doubt Ellsbury is right in there as well.  Headley just can’t do anything with RISP.  The Astros are playing with house money and their best days are in front of them.

Toronto takes Texas in 4 games, and KC sweeps the Astros.  Then, Toronto over KC for the pennant.

National League

SU would have preferred to see the Mets get home field vs. the Dodgers but so be it.  I actually think the Dodgers will feel the pressure to win this year and that makes the offense struggle just a little more.  This may not be the Mets’ time just yet with their young pitching staff but I think they win the Division Series in 5 games as LA once again comes up short.  The Pirates will beat the Cubs in the wild card game (which is a great match-up).  Cardinals over the Pirates and then they beat the Mets in the LCS in a rematch of 2006.

Finally, St. Louis over Toronto for the World Series with scarily low ratings outside of St. Louis and Toronto.

Anyone disagree?  Anyone feeling like the Yankees have a run in them?  Feel free to weigh in and go on the record.  If you are right, SU will give the appropriate props come early November and you can bask in the glow of being right.

SU is preparing to issue its MLB playoff predictions.  However, the editorial staff felt that the intergalactic subscriber base might first be interested in what SU said back in April for the 2015 season:

In the American League, this feels like a wide open field.  Many of the experts are picking Seattle but SU is not feeling that.  They are still offensively challenged and while Nelson Cruz is a big addition, you know he will immediately go into a funk hitting in spacious SafeCo Field.  The AL East actually has a fair amount of parity.  Many are high on Toronto but they seem to always come up with some unexpected injuries and fade by June.  The Red Sox added offense but their pitching has lots of question marks including a season starting hamstring injury to the world’s most annoying closer (Uehara).  The Rays are truly bad and the Yankees, well, we will get to them in a second.  The Orioles lost some guys but get others back from injury.  SU sees them taking the division.

Watch out for the White Sox in the Central with the pick-ups of David Robertson and Melky Cabrera (long-time SU fave).  Out West, the A’s are worse and Texas is terrible which helps to have a Wild Card come out of that division.  SU will go with the Angels.  Wild cards will be Seattle and Detroit.  Look for the Tigers to add some pieces come trade deadline and make it to the World Series this year.

As for the Yankees, Tanaka is already saying his velocity will be down this year.  Not a good sign.  By his 2^nd start, that will go out the window and he will be throwing full throttles which will then lead to injury.  There is just no way he is finishing the season.  CC was rocked all spring, Pineda never makes all of his starts and SU believes the bullpen without Robertson is not a sure thing.  Offensively, blecch.  A-Rod is the most interesting aspect of the line-up.  By the way, he will win the Comeback Player of the Year Award (or MLB’s newest award: “Best Season by a Former PED User”).  Look for an 82-80 record and tons of empty seats by July.

In the National League, SU is intrigued by the Mets.  Many say they are still a year away and have lots of holes offensively and in the bullpen.  But those can be plugged as the season unfolds and if Granderson can go back to his AL hitting ways, this team can win some low scoring games with strong starting pitching.  SU sees an 88-74 season and more importantly, a Wild Card in their future as they finish behind everyone’s favorites, the Washington Nationals.  And yes, the Mets take over the town and the back pages.  This is the year as the Yankees are truly, truly uninteresting.

The Giants win in the even years and it’s St. Louis in the odd ones.  Cardinals take the Central and the Dodgers win the West.  The Pirates will grab the other wild card spot.  St. Louis over Detroit in the World Series.  OK, enough of that – too exhausting.  SU has never liked doing the preseason stuff but feels obligated to help the intergalactic fan base.

OK, my American League predictions were a shambles – plain and simple.  But certainly respectable for the National League.  The analytics staff is already busy running models for this year’s playoffs.  Tune back in Sunday for that.