Time for Fearless US Open Predictions

I know – most of you don’t really follow tennis and if truth be told, you would prefer more golf chatter.  But that is one of the advantages of being the blogger vs. the bloggee.  SU is a big Djokovic fan and although he has only won the US Open one time, I think he will add #2 in two weeks time.  He has a potential quarterfinal match up with Nadal which would be entertaining and of course, Federer and Murray are both playing great this year.  It often comes down to the weather.  Djokovic seems to not like playing in the extreme heat even though he’s in great shape.  I do think the 3 out of 5 set format helps him against both Murray and Federer and he will make it through to collect another grand slam.

On the women’s side, SU is not a Serena fan.  It’s always all about her and she has never been gracious to her opponents when she loses.  She also berated that lineswoman here in NY several years back and never fully apologized for that either.  While I can’t actually identify any player who can beat her, I will take the rest of the field and say she will come up short of winning the Grand Slam.  I actually think she will go out before the semi-finals as the pressure gets to her.  It’s hard to actually identify any player who can beat her but I think it will be someone not in the top 10.

Stephen Drew is torturing SU.  Just when you think the Yankees will finally look at someone else to play 2nd base, he comes through with a 4 for 4 day to get his average over .200.  I actually called the homerun yesterday although I was watching by myself.  You just knew he was going to do it and guarantee himself 4 more weeks of starting at 2nd base.  But when he talks about his performance, there is no apology for the .200 average.  He talks like it’s just fine and he deserves to be starting.  Man, the Atlanta Braves are a bad, bad team.  SU will be interested to see how the Yankees hit over the next week against the Red Sox and Rays.  The 20-run games cover up statistics-wise for all of the 1- and 2-run efforts by the offense.

The Mets came back down to earth for a couple of games but that’s baseball.  You don’t win all of the close games.  They are still right where they need to be.  The line up is so much more complete and balanced now.  You have to give Alderson props for the moves he’s made this year at the trade deadline.

Time to Admit That SU Was Right

At SU, we pride ourselves on thoughtful perspectives, an experienced if not over-worked crack research staff and reminding the intergalactic subscriber base when we are right.  Well, despite a season’s worth of people telling SU that I was wrong about the Yankees, I would say now that all signs are pointing to what I have been saying all along.  This is a mediocre, boring team that is headed toward a win total in the mid-80s for the season.  And, the Mets are now peaking and if you have been paying attention, are starting to dominate the back page.

Jacoby Ellsbury now has a sore hip (the guy must get hurt getting out of bed) and may miss the next several games.  Brett Gardner is hitting .194 for August and A-Rod has finally hit the wall.  Combine that with Teixeira’s sore shin and you have a total stoppage with the offense.  Surely this must be the time to get Refsnyder back up here to help spark the offense.  And if he comes up and Girardi acutally plays him, will all the sports writers once again say what a genius Cashman is?  Or will one brave sole actually wonder why he was sent back down so that Stephen Drew can continue to hit like a pitcher?  It’s fine to stay the course in baseball as it’s a long season but A-Rod has over-achieved and this team really needs to sacrifice some defense for some offense.  Otherwise, the Yankees will end up battling for the 2nd Wild Card spot of which they have about a 4.5 game lead at the moment.

The Mets, meanwhile, suddenly look like the Toronto Blue Jays and have been flexing their muscles night after night.  They are winning again tonight and the Nationals are losing again.  They may actually run away and hide at this rate.  I still think the Nationals have one last gasp in them but the Mets seem to have other ideas.  They are must see tv.

CC Sabathia: End of an Era

CC Sabathia finally gave in to the pain in his knee and asked out of yesterday’s start.  SU says he is a gamer but he is a big dude and that’s a lot of weight to keep putting on his knee on his follow throughs.  He will likely head to the DL and if the Yankees are smart, they will keep him there the rest of the season.  He likely would not have made the post-season roster and this way it’s less of a blow to his ego and pride.  I suppose it remains to be seen if he can come back next year.  SU says put him in the bullpen: fewer innings, fewer pitches and maybe more MPH on the fastball.  Andrew Marchand of espn.com had a good take in his column this afternoon:

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/yankees/post/_/id/88796/despite-his-championship-pedigree-loss-of-cc-sabathia-is-a-gain-for-yankees

Meanwhile the Yankees have slipped back again into 2nd place behind Toronto.  Richard Neer on WFAN said over the weekend that the Yankees’ problems are with their pitching.  This is totally wrong.  Their problems are offensive and the inability to manufacture runs without the homerun.  They continue to lose their share of low scoring, 1-run games and that is now costing them for the Division lead.  SU believes it’s the curse of Stephen Drew.  If somehow he could stub his toe and they brought up Refsnyder, it would really help with the line-up.  The Yankees need to reverse the curse.

The Mets have petitioned MLB to add some games in September against Colorado who they own this year.  Like the Yankees, they are trying out the 6-man rotation to preserve the young arms and they got a nice start yesterday.  Playoff tickets are being printed as we speak.  SU believes no-one will want to play the Mets in the playoffs with their pitching.

Playoff Push is On

SU is back from the road out in Boulder, CO and Dallas.  As always, we have our finger on the pulse of the sports world and have been following developments closely.  Thoughts for the day:

  • The Yankees completed an impressive sweep of the Twins trailing in all 3 games.  Greg Bird has given them a nice offensive shot in the arm.  As SU has been saying all year, isn’t it more fun to watch these youngsters play vs. some of the veterans?  Time to bring up Refsnyder and put Drew on the bench.  How a guy can hit .190 or lower for 2 straight seasons and not see his playing time diminish is beyond me.  I know he’s a good fielder but hey, it’s 2nd base.  How bad can that be unless you are Chuck Knoblouch and you are trying to throw to 1st base?  The lead is still under 2 games and a long way to go.  But the Yankees are putting themselves in good position for a wild card at a minimum.
  • The Mets are hanging tough with their 4-game lead on the Nationals but you feel like they should be expanding that more as Washington has been terrible.  SU believes that race is going to tighten up considerably down the stretch.  The Yankees-Mets series in mid-September should be important for both teams.  Fun viewing for the NY fans.
  • SU has been enjoying some of the men’s tennis in Montreal and now Cincinnati.  The top players are in both events and there have been some great match-ups the last week or so.  As stated many times, SU is a big Djokovic fan.  Did you know that he paid for the Serbian special olympics team to travel to LA recently to compete in those events?  $30,000 of his own money.  Even Andy Roddick, who has had issues with him from several years ago and is a big promoter and supporter of the event, gave him special props.  Djokovic is a great ambassador for the men’s game and is always respectful of his opponent.
  • It was fun to see the trash talking that went on in last week’s men’s tournament where the youngster from Australia, Kyrgios, told Stan Warwinka during a changeover that another Australian player was sleeping with his new girlfriend.  He ended up being fined $10,000 and may be suspended.  It’s funny to compare that to the trash talking that goes on in the NFL and NBA where this type of remark would be totally ignored unless it was made about Melo’s wife.
  • FInally, we are slogging our way through the NFL preseason where most teams just want to avoid injury.  It’s silly that they play 4 games.  Strictly a money grab by the owners.  SU says 2 games is plenty in a sports where guys get hurt so frequently.

If Yankees Miss the Playoffs, is Girardi’s Job in Jeopardy?

SU is a big Joe Girardi fan.  Being a manager in New York with all the media outlets and the constant second-guessing is a real challenge.  He is a smart guy, protects his players and tolerates the media as best he can.  Joe Torre was the master with the media – Mr. Smooth – and always comfortable chit-chatting with them.  Girardi does what is required but you can see him bolt off the stage after the post-game press conferences.  Not his thing.

If the Yankees don’t make it to October this year, it will be 3 years in a row.  They have the oldest roster in MLB and a bench of utility infielders.  His starters are creaky and he has to juggle a 6-man rotation with generally only 6 innings of production.  SU believes he does a masterful job and that they have over-achieved to date.  This is a flawed team offensively.  Plus he has to play Stephen Drew every day.  It cannot be easy writing that name in each day.

Brian Cashman has had an incredible run in New York and has the trust and confidence of Hal Steinbrenner.  He will be under pressure to consider a new manager next season.  SU says Hal should take a look at Dave Dombrowski and see if the Yankees should consider a change at the GM position instead of manager.  There are finally some pieces at the higher levels of the minor leagues but the Yankees are now stuck with Headley and Ellsbury for years to come.  Headley is serviceable on a deep roster but for a guy with that many at bats, he drives in so few runs.  Ellsbury can’t stay healthy and is just not worth $22 million a year.  SU fears Girardi’s job is at risk if the Yankees collapse down the stretch but it’s not his fault.  Time will tell.

Some also believe that the Mets need to make the playoffs this year to save Terry Collins’ job.  That may be true but it’s not like he was given a world beating roster this year.  However, now that they are up 2.5 games in the standings, expectations are on the rise.  They are a nice story and if the Yankees falter, they will have the spotlight for the next 6 weeks.

No Time to Panic

Repeat after me: “Teams are not as good as they look when they are hot, and they are not as bad as they look when they are playing badly.”  SU is a firm believer in that saying and it especially applies to baseball when you play pretty much every day.  Of course, I was very disappointed in the Yankees’ performance over the weekend as I expected this to be a statement series.  My expectations for this team have been modest all year long so having them slip back record-wise is not a huge surprise.  But, SU does have some concerns:

  • Tanaka pitched well for 6 innings.  2 runs, only 80 pitches.  But Girardi pulled him anyway citing him not having pitched much on only 4 days rest this year.  SU asks the question: if he doesn’t have surgery, is this the way he will be the rest of his career?  Do you need to have a 6-man rotation for him?  And can you really consider him to be an ace?
  • The Yankees have gone something like 10 games in a row with their starter pitching 6 innings or less.  It’s a huge burden on the bullpen and SU continues to say that Girardi is masterful in how he handles his relievers.  Joe Torre was the worst – he would pitch guys 4 days in a row (see Tanyon Sturtze and Scott Proctor).  But if you play a lot of close games down the stretch, at some point it will start to show in the performance of the key guys.  Something to watch.
  • The tradition of fans throwing opposition homeruns back onto the field is just stupid.  Brett Gardner was hit in the back of the head yesterday.  SU says it’s like doing the wave at Yankee Stadium: we don’t do that.
  • Gardner does not even have a stealing attempt going back to early June or something like that.  The team has stopped running and is just waiting for the 3-run homerun.  Sometimes, you need to try and manufacture runs.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury is one streaky hitter.  In his 2 years here, he is either red hot or ice cold.  The Yankees will start winning again once he figures it out.
  • Stephen Drew came up Friday night late in the game with a runner on 1st, one out and the only infielder on the left side hugging 2nd base.  How he does not bunt or just slap the ball the other way is beyond me.  If you are Mark Texeiria, it’s one thing.  You hope he will go deep.  When you are hitting .190, how does the manager not call for him to do that?  SU says it’s selfish.  As he cools again (and I use the word “cools” loosely given his batting average), and Brendan Ryan reverts to his career numbers, SU once again would like to see Refsnyder brought back up.

SU will not panic but the Yankees really need to win the division.  They don’t have a true ace to start a wild card game and win it.  The Blue Jays have a great 1-4 in the line-up, but really the rest of the hitters are not that wonderful.  And they are all righties.  Time to pitch inside and make guys uncomfortable.  SU was very surprised not to see that this weekend but it’s something to watch out for next weekend up in Toronto.

Meanwhile, the Mets are playing inspired ball with a lot of enthusiasm.  They lost a couple of close games in Tampa but they now come home against Colorado with a chance to build on the lead as the Nationals are out West.  SU is watching.

Why you should never doubt su

SU has had its doubts about the Yankees all year.  Many on this blog have been waiting for SU to get on the Yankee band wagon.  The last 4 games are reinforcing my questioning of just how good this team is offensively.  Sure, 90 runs in 9 games is awesome but not sustainable.  Today is another lifeless effort.

Long way to go in the season but Cashman opted to stand pat offensively.  This team needs a jolt.  Finally, full disclosure: last night, SU switched to the Met game in the 9th inning.  A lot more energy and excitement.  The transition is on as the Mets take over the town.  It’s happening.

Game On!

SU is pumped for the Yankees – Blue Jays series this weekend.  This is the time of year that baseball has the sports world (mostly) to itself.  These are big games – feels like the first time we can say that in about 3 years in Yankeeland.  Here is what to expect:

  • Yankees face a knuckleballer for the 2nd time in 3 games.  Does this help?  SU says absolutely – they will score 9 runs tonight off of RA Dickey.  Time to make the early statement.
  • Ellsbury is finally showing signs of revival just as Tex is going down a bit.  But that’s baseball: you never have everyone hitting on all cylinders.
  • Yankees need to knock down Jose Bautista tonight to send a message.  SU is confident that if Evoldi doesn’t do it, Nova will tomorrow.  After all, Nova threw one over his head when he was a rookie and got the staredown from Joey Batts.
  • I liked the fire from CC last night after he struck out Big Papi in the 6th inning with the bases loaded.  He was throwing 94 mph last night – good sign for him.  And good for Yankee fans as Girardi talks like he is in the mix for the playoff rotation which is of course very scary.
  • They face David Price tomorrow for about the 30th time.  That is actually good for the home team.

We will learn about the Yankees by Sunday evening.  Is this team for real?  SU has been skeptical all year.  Time to be proven wrong starting tonight.  What do you think?

The Luis Severino Era Has Begun

Lots of excitement in Yankeeland as they appear to have their first bonafide star starting pitcher who was developed from their farm system since Andy Pettitte.  Now, Pettitte was a rookie for the Yankees in 1995.  If you are the GM, and if you are developing stud pitchers every 20 years, you may want to polish up your resume.  But not the case for Brian Cashman who is as secure in his job as anyone around.

SU likes the way Severino just stands on the rubber ready to go to the next pitch.  No nonsense.  But…. I read a report from a scout who says that his motion is pretty violent and for someone throwing high 90s heat, he is not that big.  This scout wonders if his arm can hold up under the stress of that throwing motion.  Tommy John waiting to happen?

Big game tonight for CC Sabathia.  The Yankees play 6 of their next 9 games against Toronto and they really need CC not to be terrible.  SU believes if they can go 3-3 with the Blue Jays, they will be in good shape the rest of the way.  The key is not to give them hope.  Tanaka was serviceable on Tuesday but he is not pitching like last season.  The offense continues to cook without any contribution from Jacoby Ellsbury who has fallen from around .325 when he returned from the DL to about .275 in just a few weeks.  He is very hot and cold.  For $22 million a year, you can do better than that.

The Mets almost let one get away last night in the 9th inning.  SU likes the way that they took care of business in Miami after an emotional sweep of the Nats over the weekend.  They are just 1 week removed from the Carlos Gomez debacle.  Pretty amazing.  Definitely the Minolta Turning Point of the Season for them.